Now that we’re almost at the end of the NFL regular season, there are a few things we know for sure. One of those things is that the winner of the NFC South division, a team guaranteed to make the playoffs, is going to be no better than 8-8. That they will make the playoffs having won only half their games or fewer can be seen in a trillion different ways, from luck to fair to an abomination. I reached out to my old friend and sometimes collaborator, Dean Russell Bell, to find out what he thought about this. What follows is our unadulterated but safe for work (at least it’s safe if your job doesn’t mind you reading about the NFL in the office) email exchange. This is part one of what I think will be a two-part journey. You can find part two here.
Dean,
A lot of people are talking about how unfair the NFL rule that calls for every division champion to get a top four spot in the playoffs is, particularly now that it’s a lock that the winner of the NFC South division can be no better than 8-8. In some ways, this is obviously not fair. Some ten win team is going to miss out on the playoffs despite being better than the winner of the NFC South. As a division winner (but obviously not one in the top two teams) the winner of the NFC South will host a playoff game against a wild-card team with at least two more wins than them. That feels unfair both from a competitive standpoint and a financial one, since home playoff games are like gold mines.
All that said, I think I found one way that the NFL rules got it right and where it actually will hurt the team that stumbles into the NFC South title: the draft. NFL draft order rules call for the first 20 picks in the draft to be assigned to all non-playoff teams in reverse order of their record with ties broken by opponent’s strength of schedule and then division and conference tiebreakers. As a 8-8 or more likely a 7-9 team, the NFC South winner would, if they didn’t get a playoff spot, be somewhere around pick 10-14 by my estimate. Assuming they lose in the first round of the playoffs, they would get the 21 pick of the draft.
My question for you is, is that worth it? And what criteria would you use to think about that question? And how do you think fans of the teams in question, the New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, and Atlanta Falcons feel about it?
Ezra
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Ezra
It’s an interesting question – one that, to me, comes down to three crapshoots: the NFL draft, the NFL regular season, and the NFL playoffs.
A team may be punished for making the playoffs by falling in the draft – and there is clearly a marginal benefit in choosing somewhere from 7-11 spots higher in the draft. But I don’t believe that is a significant punishment given how big a crapshoot the NFL draft is. There are so few sure things and so few teams that draft successfully on a regular basis that I just don’t think that kind of drop matters.
The second crapshoot is the NFL regular season. Because of the nature of football – only sixteen games and a high likelihood of injuries – there are very, very few teams guaranteed to make the playoffs every year. Which means, to me, you embrace every opportunity you can.
Especially because of the NFL playoffs, where literally anything can happen. There’s a 95% chance that the NFC South champ will lose in the first round, even though they play at home. But…what if a team struggles all season and really heats up at the end? What if a team has a rash of injuries early on, then recovers late? What if the favorites in the conference sustain major injuries in the playoffs – or what if that goofy, oblong ball takes an insane bounce, as it does so often?
In baseball, hockey, basketball, the playoffs are usually composed of seven game series’, where the opportunity for that kind of flukiness cancels out. With the NFL playoffs, it’s one and done. Anything can happen.
I’d say it is always, always, always worth it to make the playoffs, even at the expense of falling a few slots in the draft. If I put my Eagles in that scenario, I would definitely want them to make it. Worry about the draft later.
So – to the question you asked me – are these teams paying an adequate price for making the playoffs with a horrible record – the answer is no.
Dean
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Dean,
I’m not so sure I agree with you that the price being exacted from whichever team sneaks into the playoffs with a losing is small. Here’s something I just hacked together in a little internet dork-fest I had with myself to try to quantify the penalty. Here’s a chart that shows how good the players picked between 10-14 and 19-23 over the past five years are as defined by their Madden 15 rankings.
How significant is the drop in the NFL draft from picks 10-14 to 19-23?
Source data is from Wikipedia for draft record and Muthead for Madden 15 player ratings.
Like you said, there’s a lot of uncertainty involved in the NFL draft. Whether it’s luck, skill, or something supernatural, it is totally possible to end up drafting a bust in slots 10-14, like poor Blaine Gabbert, or a find a great player in spots 19-23. That said, there is a real difference between those two general areas in the draft, no matter how you look at it. If you judge by average rating, there is a big difference in two years, a significant one in another year, and it was a wash in two. If you want to just look at the most significant players drafted — the enormous booms or busts, it seems like you’re roughly twice as likely to get a great player at 10-14 than 19-23 and three times more likely to get a bust in the bottom bracket. The difference between a 24% chance of getting a J.J. Watt or Odell Beckham and a 12% chance of landing one of those guys is a big deal for any team but especially one that is struggling to accumulate talent, like the Saints, Panthers, and Falcons.
Like you said, there’s a lot of uncertainty involved in the NFL draft. Whether it’s luck, skill, or something supernatural, it is totally possible to end up drafting a bust in slots 10-14, like poor Blaine Gabbert, or a find a great player in spots 19-23. That said, there is a real difference between those two general areas in the draft, no matter how you look at it. If you judge by average rating, there is a big difference in two years, a significant one in another year, and it was a wash in two. If you want to just look at the most significant players drafted — the enormous booms or busts, it seems like you’re roughly twice as likely to get a great player at 10-14 than 19-23 and three times more likely to get a bust in the bottom bracket. The difference between a 24% chance of getting a J.J. Watt or Odell Beckham and a 12% chance of landing one of those guys is a big deal for any team but especially one that is struggling to accumulate talent, like the Saints, Panthers, and Falcons.
If the goal is to win the Super Bowl, then I think I might prefer doubling my chances of getting a franchise-changing talent in the draft over this year’s slim chance of winning a championship. How slim is it? Vegas Insider lists the Saints, Panthers, and Falcons, as 65-1, 70-1, and 150-1 long-shots respectively. Even if you combine those, that’s only a 3.6% chance.
Still think it’s worth taking a shot at?
Ezra
To be continued soon (here!). Thanks for reading and please feel free to chime in on Facebook, Fancred, Twitter or in the comments section below. We’d love to hear from you!