Category: Following Sports

Sports Forecast for Sunday, March 21, 2015 – March Madness Edition

We’re interrupting our normal daily sports forecasts to concentrate on March Madness, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament and American cultural obsession. We’ll run you through the games each day and give you a little flavor for each one.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #7 Michigan State Spartans vs. #2 Virginia Cavaliers, 12:10 p.m. ET on CBS.

The first game of the day could easily be the best game of the weekend. The Cavaliers make it hard for teams they play against by playing strong, physical, smothering defense and slow but effective offense. Michigan State is a chameleon of a team that may not mind playing Virginia’s type of game.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #8 San Diego State Aztecs vs. #1 Duke Blue Devils, 2:40 p.m. ET on CBS.

With Villanova losing last night, we’re down to three 1 seeds left in the tournament. Most of America will be rooting for San Diego State to reduce that number by another but I doubt they’ll be able to beat Duke to do it.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #7 Wichita Shockers vs. #2 Kansas Jayhawks, 5:15 p.m. ET on CBS.

This battle of Kansas has been highly anticipated from the moment the bracket was released. These two teams, despite being neighbors, have not actually played a game against each other since 1993. Kansas is the traditional basketball power in the state but Vegas has this game as almost a dead even matchup.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #11 Dayton Flyers vs. #3 Oklahoma Sooners, 6:10 p.m. ET on TNT.

With UAB and Georgia State losing yesterday, Dayton became one of the few remaining teams that could seriously be called underdogs. Oklahoma had a reasonably easy first game against Albany while Dayton has had to play two tough, close games. Watch for Dayton to show its fatigue in down moments of this game.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #7 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. #2 Gonzaga Bulldogs, 7:10 p.m. ET on TBS.

Both these teams had an unexpectedly easy time in their first round matchups. Because they won so easily, it feels like we don’t know what to expect in this game.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #8 Oregon Ducks vs. #1 Wisconsin Badgers, 7:45 p.m. ET on TRU.

These schools have totally oppositional characters when it comes to sports teams. Oregon is futuristic and sleek, Wisconsin, traditional and a little stodgy. Their characters are not always directly exhibited in how they play, more in how we observe them. This Wisconsin basketball team has a little more playfulness in their games than one would expect of a Wisconsin team.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #5 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. #4 Maryland Terrapins, 8:40 p.m. ET on TNT.

These well-matched teams will be competing for the opportunity to play against still-unbeaten Kentucky in the next round. Of the two teams, it seems like Maryland would have a better shot at upsetting Kentucky, so let’s root for them.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #5 University of Northern Iowa Panthers vs. #4 Louisville Cardinals, 9:40 p.m. ET on TBS.

Louisville broke my heart when they beat the UC Irvine Anteaters in a close game on Friday. Just for that, I’m hoping that the University of Northern Iowa and their star player Seth Tuttle make short work of the Cardinals today.

Sports Forecast for Saturday, March 20, 2015 – March Madness Edition

We’re interrupting our normal daily sports forecasts to concentrate on March Madness, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament and American cultural obsession. We’ll run you through the games each day and give you a little flavor for each one.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #14 UAB Blazers vs. #11 UCLA Bruins, 12:10 p.m. ET on CBS.

This is a real glass-half-full, glass-half-empty game. On one hand, it’s impossible for both of these teams who provided us with exciting upsets in their first games to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. On the other hand, one of them surely will. Although their seeds are not so different, their history as basketball schools could not be more different. UAB is a true underdog. UCLA is an overdog fallen on hard times masquerading as an underdog. Because of that, I’ll be rooting for UAB.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #8 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. #1 Kentucky Wildcats, 2:40 p.m. ET on CBS.

“What happens when a bearcat meets a wildcat” sounds like the start of a joke my friends and I would have told in middle school. What’s likely to happen here is that the Wildcats will win but one thing is for sure, they’re not going to escape a game with Cincinnati without a few bumps and bruises.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #10 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. #2 Arizona Wildcats, 5:15 p.m. ET on CBS.

Ohio State needed overtime to get by VCU. Arizona waltzed by Texas Southern. Still, if Ohio State point guard D’Angelo Russell has enough in his tank after playing 44 minutes on Thursday, I could see Arizona having a tough time winning this game. Russell was one of the most impressive players I’ve seen so far in the tournament.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #14 Georgia State Panthers vs. #6 Xavier Musketeers, 6:10 p.m. ET on TNT.

Georgia State is the underdog everyone loves to love this year. Their star player is the coach’s son. Their coach tore his achilles celebrating with the team and seems determined to break something else as he continues to celebrate. Xavier should win this game but the entire world will be pulling for Georgia State.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #8 North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. #1 Villanova Wildcats, 7:10 p.m. ET on TBS.

Villanova was thought to be the weakest of the four 1 seeds coming into the tournament. The fact that this game is on TBS shows a continued lack of respect. The fun thing about sports is that we’ll get a clear signal from the outcome of the game about whether the disrespect was merited.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #5 Utah Utes vs. #4 Georgetown Hoyas, 7:45 p.m. ET on CBS.

Georgetown fans were breathing a sigh of relief after their team won its first game in the tournament. In recent years, the Hoyas have been prone to being upset by lower seeded teams early in the tournament. Losing this game wouldn’t be an upset. Utah and Georgetown are a pretty even matchup. Perhaps the most even of the day.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #5 Arkansas Razerbacks vs. #4 North Carolina Tarheels, 8:40 p.m. ET on TNT.

Both these teams just barely escaped being upset in the first round, North Carolina to Harvard and Arkansas to Woffard. Neither one looked very impressive but one of them will be moving on. I wonder if we’ll be more impressed with the teams in this game or equally nonplussed.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #6 Butler Bulldogs vs. #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 9:40 p.m. ET on TBS.

It seems like ages ago that Notre Dame opened the tournament with a close win over Northeastern. In real-time it was only Thursday afternoon. Butler beat a disjointed Texas team but one of their best players went down with a knee injury. They’ll need him playing at least at three-quarters strength in order to challenge Notre Dame.

Which March Madness region was most mad in the first round?

Yesterday, I introduced a new metric to the world of college sports, the Madness Metric. By subtracting the expected sum of the two seeds in each round, assuming only favorites win, from the sum of the seeds of the teams that are actually playing, we can get a fairly good sense of just how mad March Madness has really been. Now that the first round (the round of 64, which is officially called the second round but which everyone reasonable calls the first round) is done, I thought it would  be a good idea to check in on our new metric and calculate it for the first time. We’ll do it by region or quarter of the overall field. Each region has teams ranked or seeded from 1-16. In the first round, 1 plays 16, 2 plays 15, and so on. In the second round, starting today, if all the favorites had won, 1 would play 8, 2 would play 7, 3 would play 6, and 4 would play 5. As you know from watching the last couple days of basketball, that’s not exactly how it worked out. The Madness Metric will tell us just how far off we are:

East (+5): Thanks to 11 seed Dayton beating 6 seed Providence. Many people feel like this wasn’t exactly fair because Dayton played their first game, the play-in game in their home stadium, and then this game nearby. Every other favorite in this region won their games.

Midwest (0): Not mad at all! All the favorites won.

West (+11): 10 seed Ohio State University beat 7 seeded VCU, but most of the +11 is due to the darlings of the tournament so far, 14 seed Georgia State which beat 3 seed Baylor, sending themselves to the round of 32 and their coach to the floor.

South (+16): This is the craziest of the regions and all its lunacy will be concentrated into one round of 32 game between 11 seed UCLA and 14 seed UAB. One of these Cinderella teams will be going to the sweet sixteen at least.

Total (+32): This is the first time I’ve ever calculated this metric, so I’m not sure about its history, but this doesn’t seem as crazy overall as one would have expected given that the first day was said to have been the craziest day ever. I’d have to do some historical analysis to figure this out.

As the tournament goes on, I’ll keep you posted about just how crazy it is. Thanks for reading.

 

March Madness mathematical musings

It’s March Madness time again, which means everyone is wandering around looking at print-outs or electronic versions of a bracket. The bracket shows a tournament with 64 teams divided into four groups of 16 each. Within each group of 16, the teams are ranked or seeded from 1 to 16. In the first round of the tournament, represented on the outside of the bracket, 1 plays 16, 2 plays 15, 3 plays 14, and so on until you reach the 8 vs. 9 game. Many of these pairs of numbers are instantly recognizable to most sports fans. We all know that a 16 has never beaten a 1, that 12 seeds seem to upset 5 seeds more frequently than one would expect, and that once you get to an 8 vs. 9 or a 7 vs. 10 game, the teams are so evenly matched that you can’t call it an upset when the 9 or 10 seed wins. It occurred to me yesterday (this is a pretty obvious realization, but cut me some slack, I did have a fever) that if you add the two seed numbers, every matchup in the first round adds up to 17.

Cool! Now I know lots of ways to add to 17. I wasn’t sure how this was going to help me in life but I kept thinking. 17… 17 is one more than 16. 16 is the number of teams in each quarter of the tournament. So, the seed numbers add up to one more than the number of teams left in each quarter of the bracket. Does that work for later rounds too? Well, let’s assume there are no upsets in the first round. Seeds 1-8 advance, seeds 9-16 lose. 1 plays 8, 2 plays 7, 3 plays 6, and 4 plays 5 in the next round. All of those numbers add up to nine, which is one more than eight. Eight is the number of teams left in that side of the bracket! If you keep going with this logic, again with no upsets, it keeps working for a while. The next round would have 1 playing 4 and 2 playing 3. 1 beats 4, 2 beats 3, and then 1 and 2 play for the right to represent this quarter of the overall tournament in the… Final Four! That’s when the four groups of 16 teams merge and become a single tournament. This is where the logic breaks down, because you would expect all four 1 seeds to make it, so that round’s sum would be two even though there are four teams left and the same would be true for the final game when there are only two teams left.

I might have lost you there for a minute (or maybe forever) but I’m about to bring it back to reality a little. We know that the favorites don’t always win during March Madness. Yesterday it seemed like the favorites were barely going to win at all! Already we’ve had 14 seeds beat 3 seeds, 11 beating 6, and 9 beating 8. This means that things won’t work so nicely in the second round. For example, instead of 3 seed Iowa State playing 6 seed SMU (adds up to 9) in the next round, we’re going to have 14 seed UAB playing 11 seed UCLA. 14 plus 11 is 25 not 9. The sum trick only works if the favorites always win.

Once I realized this, I was disappointed for a few minutes. Being disappointed because upsets ruin my little math trick is silly, of course. Upsets are what make March Madness so great. They’re what puts the Madness in March Madness. Then I had a (minuscule) Eureka moment. We can quantify exactly how “mad” each quarter of the bracket is by adding up the seed numbers of the teams that advance and subtracting the number we would have gotten if all the favorites had won. Call it the Madness Metric™. Using that same example of UAB and UCLA advancing instead of Iowa State and SMU, you would take their seeds, 14 and 11, add them to get 25 and then subtract 9 (the expected seed sum for the next round of the tournament) to get 14. 14 is pretty mad!

It’s not an advanced metric by any means, but it is a fun way to compare the regions (each quarter of the tournament is called a region because it’s played in one spot, not because the teams are from one place) to see which one is the maddest of them all! I’ll report back at the end of each round on this metric.

Sports Forecast for Friday, March 20, 2015 – March Madness Edition

We’re interrupting our normal daily sports forecasts to concentrate on March Madness, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament and American cultural obsession. We’ll run you through the games each day and give you a little flavor for each one.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #15 New Mexico State Aggies vs. #2 Kansas Jayhawks, 12:15 p.m. ET on CBS.

After yesterday’s historic insanity, it’s probably too much to hope for for this game to be close. Then again, if there was going to be a 2 seed that gets a real scare in the first round, it would be Kansas. Most of the computer rankings say that Kansas should be flattered to have even gotten ranked so highly by the tournament’s seeds.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #10 Georgia Bulldogs vs. #7 Michigan State Spartans, 12:40 p.m. ET on TRU.

If you wanted an exhibit to show that coaching does matter in sports, particularly college basketball, you couldn’t find a better one than Michigan State Coach Tom Izzo. Despite not having the best players most years, his teams always seem to win at least a game or two in March Madness. They are favored over a solid but unspectacular Georgia team.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #12 Wyoming Cowboys vs. #5 Northern Iowa, 1:40 p.m. ET on TBS.

With all of yesterday’s upsets, the two 5 seeds actually managed to beat the 12 seeds they faced. The 12 over 5 upset is the one that armchair pundits (and we’re all armchair pundits, aren’t we?) everywhere look for. It just seems like at least one 12 seed always beats a 5. 538 ran an interesting article on why this might actually be true. Will Wyoming pull it off?

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #12 Buffalo Bulls vs. #5 West Virginia Mountaineers, 2:10 p.m. ET on TNT.

Or, maybe it’s Buffalo’s turn? Normally at this time of the year we’d see stories about how the snow struck city of Buffalo could really use something to cheer them up but this year, compared to Boston, living in Buffalo was like having a time-share in Palm beach. It’s hard to root against West Virginia and their pressing defense.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #10 Indiana Hoosiers vs. #7 Wichita State Shockers, 2:45 p.m. ET on CBS.

This is one of the few NCAA Tournament games that feels like a preview to coming attractions. If Wichita State can get by the Indiana Hoosiers, it will (probably) set up a matchup with in-state rival Kansas on Sunday. Everyone outside of Indiana is rooting for this to happen but I wonder if Wichita’s players will be guilty of looking ahead and get caught for it here.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #15 Belmont Bruins vs. #2 Virginia Cavaliers, 3:10 p.m. ET on TRU.

It seems funny to stick a 2 seed on TRU TV but Virginia is no normal 2 seed. They play a slow, grind-it-out, defensive game. I guess the TV schedulers might have felt that their play was too slow for most viewers. I have to say, I’m curious to see it. The slower you play, the fewer possessions the game has, and the fewer possessions the game has, the higher the chance for luck to play a role in the outcome. Maybe Belmont can get a few bounces and keep this close or even win?!

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #13 UC Irvine Anteaters vs. #4 Louisville Cardinals, 4:10 p.m. ET on TBS.

THE ANTEATERS ARE GOING TO WIN, THE ANTEATERS ARE GOING TO WIN! Here’s a quote from the Wikipedia page on anteaters: “When a territorial dispute occurs, they vocalize, swat, and can sometimes sit on or even ride the back of their opponents.” THAT’S WHAT THEY’RE GOING TO DO!

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #13 Valparaiso Crusaders vs. #4 Maryland Terrapins, 4:40 p.m. ET on TNT.

Take some time before this game to read Jeremy Pahl’s wonderful article about growing up in Valparaiso and what basketball meant to him, his father, and the whole city. You’ll be pulling for the Crusaders afterwards.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #9 Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. #8 Oregon Ducks, 6:50 p.m. ET on TBS.

Oklahoma State lost six of its last seven games before today. It’s hard to imagine that they’ll just be able to snap out of it and win this game but stranger things have happened. Actually, about ten stranger things happened yesterday. Hmm…

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #16 Robert Morris Dentists vs. #1 Duke Blue Devils, 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS.

What an amazing matchup! Dentists vs. Devils — hard to say which one is worse. Just kidding, the Robert Morris team is actually called the Colonials, not the Dentists, but how great would that be? Duke is the team that most of the country loves to hate and, knowing that a 16 seed has never beaten a 1 seed, my guess is that we’ll all get to hate Duke for a little while longer.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #10 Davidson Wildcats vs. #7 Iowa Hawkeyes, 7:20 p.m. ET on TNT.

The funny thing about this game is that despite making the tournament, both these teams are afterthoughts in their own states. Iowa is not thought to be as good as Iowa State or Northern Iowa and Davidson, located in North Carolina, is nowhere near as good as North Carolina or Duke. It kind of makes me want them both to win, although that is obviously impossible.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #14 Albany Great Danes vs. #3 Oklahoma Sooners, 7:27 p.m. ET on TRU.

In case you’re wondering what a “Sooner” is, it’s a historical reference. A sooner was someone who jumped the gun and entered Oklahoma to claim what once was Native American land for themselves just before President Grover Cleveland legalized the land-rush in 1889. Perhaps not quite as bad as the Ole Miss Rebels historical nickname, it’s still pretty despicable. I guess we should all root for the dogs that look like horses team?

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #16 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. #1 Wisconsin Badgers, 9:20 p.m. ET on TBS.

Wisconsin is famous for choking in the NCAA Tournament and losing when they’re expected to win. If they do it tonight, they’ll be famous for it forever and ever.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #9 St. John’s Red Storm vs. #8 San Diego State Aztecs, 9:40 p.m. ET on CBS.

Alas, St. John’s big man, Chris Obepka, who made a name for himself this year for wearing short(er) shorts, is suspended for the tournament, so we won’t be graced by his leggy presence. Having seen St. John’s play in person just a week ago, I suspect we may not be graced by any of their presences for long. They didn’t seem like a very good basketball team to me.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #15 North Dakota State Bison vs. #4 Gonzaga Bulldogs, 9:57 p.m. ET on TRU.

Give yourself a pat on the back if you make it through to this game. That’s a lot of basketball in two days! Rest up, ’cause there’s more on Saturday and Sunday!

What happened on Wednesday, March 18, 2015?

  • Field set for March Madness: The last two play-in games (or first round games as the NCAA insists we call them) were last night, so this morning the field of 64 teams is locked and loaded for today’s action. Dayton beat Boise State 56-55 in a game that was controversial for a potentially missed call by a ref at the end of the game and because the game was played in Dayton, Ohio. Robert Morris beat North Florida 81-77 for the right to play against Duke on Friday.
    Line: Let the tournament begin!
  • Field set for Champions League final eight: Over in Europe, their slower version of the NCAA tournament, soccer’s Champions League is happening. Yesterday’s games were the last in their round of sixteen. Barcelona advanced over Manchester City and Juventus beat Dortmund to advance as well. The final eight include three Spanish teams, two French teams, and one team from Germany, Italy, and Portugal. No English teams.
    Line: I thought the British Premier League was supposed to be the best soccer league in the world? Why can’t any of their teams make it deep in the Champions League?
  • Doubts about the reality of Atlanta continue: Oh sure, the city exists, we’re talking about the quality of their basketball team, the Atlanta Hawks. They’ve been leading the Eastern Conference all season but every time they get into a game with another top three team, they seem to lose. That’s what happened last night agains the Golden State Warriors beat them 114-95.
    Line: I still don’t trust Atlanta to win in the playoffs because of games like this.

Sports Forecast for Thursday, March 19, 2015 – March Madness Edition

We’re interrupting our normal daily sports forecasts to concentrate on March Madness, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament and American cultural obsession. We’ll run you through the games each day and give you a little flavor for each one.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #14 Northeastern Huskies vs. #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 12:15 p.m. ET on CBS.

Hooooray!! March Madness is here! Let’s get this thing started! Time to settle in on your coach or your bar stool or duck down in your cubicle and get your illicitly streaming phone or tablet going! Unless you’re a Notre Dame fan, you’re all going to be rooting for Northeastern here. The best part of March Madness is the madness — the upsets, so that’s what we want to see!

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #14 UAB Blazers vs. #3 Iowa State Cyclones, 12:40 p.m. ET on TRU.

Okay, the first half of the Northeastern vs. Notre Dame game is over. Let’s switch over to the start of this game. What? What is TRU? Do I even get that channel? Ah, thank god for Sports Illustrated’s guide to finding TRU. Great, here we are. Hmmmm…. UAB’s name is “Blazers” and their mascot is a dragon? Who wants to bet that the dragon was added in later to bowdlerize the original meaning of the nickname. No, don’t look it up, that’s what bar bets are for.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #14 Georgia State Panthers vs. #3 Baylor Bears, 1:40 p.m. ET on TBS.

Okay, the first two games aren’t going to satisfy the country’s itch for an upset, so maybe this one will. Why the heck did the tournament decide to start with three #14 vs #3 matchups anyway? I’m guessing those are always the lowest rated games, so why not put them during the day when most people are at least supposed to be working anyway, but it does make for a bit of an inauspicious start to the tournament. Patience. Patience and more popcorn. Let’s go Georgia State! This would be a great upset story — their coach tore his achilles tendon while celebrating the win that put them into the tournament. He was hugging his son, a player on the team. Also, that guy Kevin Ware who broke his leg so terribly when he was on Louisville and they were in the Final Four a couple years ago is on this team.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #15 Texas Southern Tigers vs. #2 Arizona Wildcats, 2:10 p.m. ET on TNT.

Okay, so this is unlikely to be a competitive game, but it does give all of us a chance to actually see Arizona. Unless you’re on the West Coast or are a real college basketball junkie, you probably haven’t seen the Wildcats play yet this year and they’re supposed to be one of the two or three teams that could give Kentucky a run for their money. Are they really that good?

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #11 Texas Longhorns vs. #6 Butler Bulldogs, 2:45 p.m. ET on CBS.

Here we go! Two hours and thirty minutes since the tournament began and we’ve got what should be a real, competitive game. Not only is a 11 vs. 6 closer on paper than the earlier games but Texas is an unusually talented 11 seed. They’re one of those teams that, if they could put their shit together and play well for a week or two, could make a deep run. Butler, the team that’s used to playing the role of the underdog, is the overdog in this matchup and it should be interesting to see how they react.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #11 UCLA Bruins vs. #6 SMU Mustangs, 3:10 p.m. ET on TRU.

UCLA was once the University of Connecticut women’s basketball team of men’s basketball. They won everything all the time. Nowadays? Not so much. SMU is a different story. They’re coached by the 74 year-old peripatetic coach, Larry Brown, who is still the only coach to ever win an NCAA championship and an NBA one. Many people felt they should have gotten into the tournament last year, so they’re a bit of a sentimental favorite this time around, now that they’ve made it.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #10 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. #7 VCU Rams, 4:10 p.m. ET on TBS.

Glurb. So much basketball. I gotta go do something else. But wait, this could be a good game. And after this one, there’s a quick break for an early dinner before the next one comes on. I’ll stick it out. Plus, there’s some built in interest here. The favorite in this game is VCU, a team from a small conference, and the underdog is Ohio State, a big school from a big conference. If you need a tie-breaker to figure out who to root for, VCU’s coach is named Shaka Smart!

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #16 Lafayette Leopards vs. #1 Villanova Wildcats, 6:50 p.m. ET on TBS.

“You’ve had your dinner,” the March Madness gods chortle, “now get back to the TV!” You meekly obey and watch poor Lafayette’s ritual slaughter at the hands of Villanova.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #9 Purdue Boilermakers vs. #8 Cincinnati Bearcats, 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS.

Now we’re cooking with gas. The second of four games all starting within 40 minutes. An 8 vs. 9 game is always a toss-up in terms of predicting what is going to happen and usually it’s a close game too. It’s hard to get too excited about either of these moderately successful teams in big, power conferences, but I’ve always had a soft spot for Cincinnati. They just seem like a tough team most of the time.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #13 Harvard vs. #4 North Carolina, 7:20 p.m. ET on TNT.

This is Harvard’s fourth appearance in the NCAA Tournament in a row. They’ve won their first game the last two years, upsetting higher ranked teams both times. This has a lot of people anticipating this game and hoping that Harvard can make it three in a row and show up the North Carolina basketball royalty. After a few minutes, you’ll realize this isn’t going to happen. Luckily, there’s lots of other games to watch.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #12 Stephen F. Austin vs. #5 Utah Runnin’ Utes, 7:27 p.m. ET on TRU.

This is another highly anticipated upset possibility. Two things play into that. First of all, there’s the tournament truism that a 12 always beats a 5. Also, Stephen F. Austin did it just last year when they beat number 5 seed VCU as a number 12 seed. Don’t buy into it. According to virtually all of the expert rankings out there, Utah is closer to a top ten team this year than the 20-24th best team their seed would suggest. They should be able to handle Stephen F. Austin.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #9 LSU Tigers vs. #8 North Carolina State Wolfpack, 9:20 p.m. ET on TBS.

Entering the home stretch for day one of the tournament. Only three games left. This is a sneaky good game. LSU has a couple of solid NBA prospects on their team, which is surprisingly something a lot of these teams can’t say, and North Carolina State actually beat Duke, Louisville, and North Carolina this year, so you know they can put on a show.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #16 Hampton Pirates vs. #1 Kentucky Wildcats, 9:40 p.m. ET on CBS.

One day a 16 seed will beat a 1 seed. It won’t be today. One day Kentucky might lose but also, not today. I find it interesting that CBS would even want to show this game but I guess Kentucky is the biggest star of this tournament and even showing them in a blowout will get great ratings.

NCAA Men’s Basketball – #13 Eastern Washington Eagles vs. #4 Georgetown Hoyas, 9:57 p.m. ET on TRU.

And now, finally, the game we’ve all been waiting for. This is one of the most popular choices for a big upset in round one. Somewhere between 15-20% of everyone who’s filled in a bracket thinks that the Eastern Washington Eagles are going to beat the Georgetown Hoyas. Why is this? Well, for one thing, a lot of people felt that Georgetown should really have been seeded lower than they were — that they made a better 5 or 6 seed than a 4 seed. Also, Georgetown has been a disappointing tournament team over the last few years. In fact, they haven’t made it past the first week of games since 2007.

Sports Forecast for Friday, March 13, 2015

Sports is no fun if you don’t know what’s going on. Here’s what’s going on: In today’s segment, I covered:

  • NBA Basketball – Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV.
  • NHL Hockey – Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild, 8 p.m. ET on regional networks.
  • NCAA Basketball – All day, lots of channels.
  • And more!

For email subscribers, click here to get the audio.

You can subscribe to all Dear Sports Fan podcasts by following this link. Music by Jesse Fischer.

What happened on Thursday, March 12, 2015?

  1. Old people miss best game at Big East Tournament: My buddy and I went to the Big East Tournament yesterday and watched basketball all day from Noon until… well, until we got sleepy and left half-way through the fourth game. As luck would have it, that was by far the most exciting game of the day and the only upset. Favored Butler lost to Xavier 67-61 in overtime. In the other games, Villanova stomped Marquette 84-49, St. John’s lost disappointingly to Providence 74-57, and Georgetown beat a pesky Creighton 60-55.
    Line: And that’s why you never leave a game early!
  2. Grizzlies decide to sit their best three players; lose: TNT could not have been happy with the Memphis Grizzlies decision to sit Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Mike Conley in a nationally televised game on their network. The more coaches do this, especially when it results in a boring entertainment like last night’s 107-87 Wizards win, the more likely it’s going to be that the league steps in and does something about it.
    Line: It’s a tough call — I think a coach should be able to do what’s best for his team’s championship hopes, but it does seem a little wrong.
  3. Cavs and Spurs a finals preview: At this point, who in their right mind would bet against either LeBron James or the San Antonio Spurs. It seems like no matter what happens during an NBA season, those two end up in the finals against each other. Last night it was James’ new sidekick, Kyrie Irving, who stole the show with 57 points. The Cavaliers beat the Spurs 128 – 125 in overtime.
    Line: Not only would I not bet against a Cavaliers vs. Spurs finals, I wouldn’t root against it either. It would be fun! 

What happened on Wednesday, March 11, 2015?

  • Champions for now: The United States Women’s National soccer team won the Algarve Cup by beating France 2-0. The Algarve Cup is an annual international tournament that means something to win but not nearly as much as the once-every-four-years World Cup which is happening this year in Canada. As such, the U.S. team will celebrate for about five minutes before going back to thinking about/obsessing over the World Cup.
    Line: Let’s see them do it in June.
  • A man down but not out: Paris Saint Germain played about two thirds of regulation time in their Champions League game yesterday against Chelsea down a man after their striker, Zlatan Ibrahimovic was given a red card. The team seemed to use what they felt was an unfair expulsion as a rallying point. They went down a goal and clawed back to force extra time. They went down another goal in extra time and heroically gathered their energy and were able to score again to even the score. Then they just had to hold on in the final few minutes to advance thanks to a moderately complicated rule governing Champions League tie-breakers.
    Line: What a heroic performance by PSG, (Paris Saint Germain) especially their center backs, David Silva and Thiago Silva. (unrelated but both Brazilian)
  • Don’t count them out: The Portland Trail Blazers season was widely said to become a lost cause when one of their best players, Wesley Matthews, went down with a torn Achilles tendon last week. Their remaining players seem determined to prove that to be a false assumption. They beat the Houston Rockets 105-100 last night, even surviving a bizarre and beautiful fourth quarter surge by the Rockets, led by veteran Corey Brewer who scored 17 points in the fourth quarter alone.
    Line: I still don’t think the Trail Blazers can survive a playoff series without Matthews but last night’s game is making me have second thoughts.