Tag: opinion

Now that we’re almost at the end of the NFL regular season, there are a few things we know for sure. One of those things is that the winner of the NFC South division, a team guaranteed to make the playoffs, is going to have a losing record. That they will make the playoffs having won only half their games or fewer can be seen in a trillion different ways, from luck to fair to an abomination. I reached out to my old friend and sometimes collaborator, Dean Russell Bell, to find out what he thought about this. What follows is our unadulterated but safe for work (at least it’s safe if your job doesn’t mind you reading about the NFL in the office) email exchange. This is part two of a two-part journey. If you didn’t read part one, you can find it here.

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Ezra,

Let me first say how happy I am that a site like Muthead exists SOLELY to provide information on Madden player ratings. Is this a great sports country or what?

That’s a lot of numbers. And a somewhat limited sample size and one that’s reliant on…you know…video game ratings (which are based on stats, yeah yeah yeah. Still. Really?) It also doesn’t include relative salary cap impact of picks in those slots (which, I’ll admit, I’m not entirely clear on) which would be the other thing to take into consideration. And I won’t point out that four of the six teams with a great pick in the 10-14 slot are likely to miss the playoffs this year. Or maybe I will.

But to me, that all misses the point. If I’m a fan – maybe not the die-hardiest of die-hard fans who actually analyze their teams’ salary caps – I’ll still take the playoff game. Again – are you more likely to get a better player with a higher draft pick? Yes. But this is not the top five, where you get the “can’t miss” franchise quarterback (even though they frequently miss). So as a fan…I’m not as moved by it. I’m more about the short term excitement.

And if I’m a franchise, you have to take that into consideration. No coach wants to miss the playoffs. Tanking does not seem to be a thing in football like it is in basketball. Why is that? I don’t really know…but I suspect it has something to do with how big a crapshoot it all is.

BUT. I will not let all these numbers and colors distract from the fundamental question: is it fair for a team with a worse record to make the playoffs because they won a division?

Dean

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Dean,

Fairness in sports is something I have a lot of trouble thinking about. Yes, it’s fair because in the constructed universe of the NFL, the rules dictate that the 32 teams are broken up into two conferences of 16 teams each and the conferences are broken up into four divisions of four teams each and the team with the best record in each division is guaranteed a playoff spot. Whichever team wins the NFC South, the Saints, Panthers, or Falcons, did not do anything untoward (at least not that we know of) or outside of the rules as they are today. The question is, is the rule fair? That’s when things start to get very scrambly in my head but let me try to make some kind of sense out of them… or at least an omelet.

If fair means optimized to reward the best teams, then it’s safe to say this is not a “fair” rule. You could easily design a fairer system by this definition of the word fair by eliminating divisions or even conferences entirely. Why not just have the top 12 of the 32 teams make the playoffs? Divisions, and even conferences, exist for reasons other than rewarding the best teams. Divisions exist mostly for fans. Having three teams that your team plays twice a year (as they do within divisions) helps create the type of contentious long-term rivalries that fans love like the Baltimore Ravens vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers, the San Francisco 49ers vs. the Seattle Seahawks, and virtually every combination of the teams in the NFC East, the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, and Washington Redskins. Divisions are definitely not fair if fair means optimizing to reward the best teams, but they might be fair if fair means creating the most enjoyable product for fans of all 32 teams.

If fairness in sports is about serving the fans, then I would argue that this does serve the fans. Oh, sure, fans of the team that misses out on the playoffs despite having ten wins will be pissed, but overall, I think it’s a good thing. If playoff spots were given out simply to the best 12 teams in the league, the playoff race would basically only include the teams in ninth through fifteenth place overall — say around seven teams. By rewarding division winners and thus limiting the playoff spots given to non-division winning good teams, the NFL increases the number of teams in contention for the playoffs (and at risk for falling out). In a world without divisions, the Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, and Seattle Seahawks wouldn’t care so much about their final two games of the season as they do today. They would be in fourth, fifth, and eighth place respectively and comfortably in the playoffs. But because divisions matter, each of these teams could miss out on a playoff spot if they don’t win. Similarly, in a world without divisions, we wouldn’t care so much about games involving the three teams fighting for the NFC South title — the Falcons, Saints, and Panthers would be in 21st, 23rd, and 24th place and well out of the playoff hunt.

The NFL’s division based playoff system is fair if you consider the NFL to be first and foremost entertainment for fans. That’s good enough for me. What about you?

Ezra

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Ezra,

Good enough for me too, even though I’m going to watch some under-.500 NFC South take a playoff spot that could’ve belonged to my swan-diving Eagles. Because the NFL should, first and foremost, satisfy the fans. We’re the ones who pay for the whole thing.

Now, it would be unfair if winning a division was the only way to make it into the playoffs – but every team has an equal opportunity to win one of the wild cards and, in the case of my Eagles, that was very much within their grasp. The didn’t deserve to be in the playoffs. And they’re not. So that’s fair. And as you note, the current arrangement made this week of football far more entertaining than it would otherwise have been.

The other question is whether it’s fair that a division winner automatically gets homefield advantage in the first playoff game despite having a worse record than their opponent. And again – I think it is. The NFL has decided – for the reasons you cited – to give preferential to teams that win their division. While some divisions may be more talented overall in a given year, I’d argue that it the balance of power shifts often enough that it roughly evens out. After all, it was only a few years ago – before Jim Harbaugh, Pete Carroll, and Chuck Arians – that we were talking about how anemic the NFC West was, especially compared to the powerhouse NFC South.

Dean

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We decided to leave it here. What comes around, goes around. Everything has happened before and will happen again. And more cliches. Until the next time, have a happy and safe holiday season!

Now that we’re almost at the end of the NFL regular season, there are a few things we know for sure. One of those things is that the winner of the NFC South division, a team guaranteed to make the playoffs, is going to be no better than 8-8. That they will make the playoffs having won only half their games or fewer can be seen in a trillion different ways, from luck to fair to an abomination. I reached out to my old friend and sometimes collaborator, Dean Russell Bell, to find out what he thought about this. What follows is our unadulterated but safe for work (at least it’s safe if your job doesn’t mind you reading about the NFL in the office) email exchange. This is part one of what I think will be a two-part journey. You can find part two here.

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Dean,

A lot of people are talking about how unfair the NFL rule that calls for every division champion to get a top four spot in the playoffs is, particularly now that it’s a lock that the winner of the NFC South division can be no better than 8-8. In some ways, this is obviously not fair. Some ten win team is going to miss out on the playoffs despite being better than the winner of the NFC South. As a division winner (but obviously not one in the top two teams) the winner of the NFC South will host a playoff game against a wild-card team with at least two more wins than them. That feels unfair both from a competitive standpoint and a financial one, since home playoff games are like gold mines.

All that said, I think I found one way that the NFL rules got it right and where it actually will hurt the team that stumbles into the NFC South title: the draft. NFL draft order rules call for the first 20 picks in the draft to be assigned to all non-playoff teams in reverse order of their record with ties broken by opponent’s strength of schedule and then division and conference tiebreakers. As a 8-8 or more likely a 7-9 team, the NFC South winner would, if they didn’t get a playoff spot, be somewhere around pick 10-14 by my estimate. Assuming they lose in the first round of the playoffs, they would get the 21 pick of the draft.

My question for you is, is that worth it? And what criteria would you use to think about that question? And how do you think fans of the teams in question, the New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, and Atlanta Falcons feel about it?

Ezra

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Ezra

It’s an interesting question – one that, to me, comes down to three crapshoots: the NFL draft, the NFL regular season, and the NFL playoffs.

A team may be punished for making the playoffs by falling in the draft – and there is clearly a marginal benefit in choosing somewhere from 7-11 spots higher in the draft. But I don’t believe that is a significant punishment given how big a crapshoot the NFL draft is. There are so few sure things and so few teams that draft successfully on a regular basis that I just don’t think that kind of drop matters.

The second crapshoot is the NFL regular season. Because of the nature of football – only sixteen games and a high likelihood of injuries – there are very, very few teams guaranteed to make the playoffs every year. Which means, to me, you embrace every opportunity you can.

Especially because of the NFL playoffs, where literally anything can happen. There’s a 95% chance that the NFC South champ will lose in the first round, even though they play at home. But…what if a team struggles all season and really heats up at the end? What if a team has a rash of injuries early on, then recovers late? What if the favorites in the conference sustain major injuries in the playoffs – or what if that goofy, oblong ball takes an insane bounce, as it does so often?

In baseball, hockey, basketball, the playoffs are usually composed of seven game series’, where the opportunity for that kind of flukiness cancels out. With the NFL playoffs, it’s one and done. Anything can happen.

I’d say it is always, always, always worth it to make the playoffs, even at the expense of falling a few slots in the draft. If I put my Eagles in that scenario, I would definitely want them to make it. Worry about the draft later.

So – to the question you asked me – are these teams paying an adequate price for making the playoffs with a horrible record – the answer is no.

Dean

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Dean,

I’m not so sure I agree with you that the price being exacted from whichever team sneaks into the playoffs with a losing is small. Here’s something I just hacked together in a little internet dork-fest I had with myself to try to quantify the penalty. Here’s a chart that shows how good the players picked between 10-14 and 19-23 over the past five years are as defined by their Madden 15 rankings.

How significant is the drop in the NFL draft from picks 10-14 to 19-23?

Source data is from Wikipedia for draft record and Muthead for Madden 15 player ratings.

Like you said, there’s a lot of uncertainty involved in the NFL draft. Whether it’s luck, skill, or something supernatural, it is totally possible to end up drafting a bust in slots 10-14, like poor Blaine Gabbert, or a find a great player in spots 19-23. That said, there is a real difference between those two general areas in the draft, no matter how you look at it. If you judge by average rating, there is a big difference in two years, a significant one in another year, and it was a wash in two. If you want to just look at the most significant players drafted — the enormous booms or busts, it seems like you’re roughly twice as likely to get a great player at 10-14 than 19-23 and three times more likely to get a bust in the bottom bracket. The difference between a 24% chance of getting a J.J. Watt or Odell Beckham and a 12% chance of landing one of those guys is a big deal for any team but especially one that is struggling to accumulate talent, like the Saints, Panthers, and Falcons.

Like you said, there’s a lot of uncertainty involved in the NFL draft. Whether it’s luck, skill, or something supernatural, it is totally possible to end up drafting a bust in slots 10-14, like poor Blaine Gabbert, or a find a great player in spots 19-23. That said, there is a real difference between those two general areas in the draft, no matter how you look at it. If you judge by average rating, there is a big difference in two years, a significant one in another year, and it was a wash in two. If you want to just look at the most significant players drafted — the enormous booms or busts, it seems like you’re roughly twice as likely to get a great player at 10-14 than 19-23 and three times more likely to get a bust in the bottom bracket. The difference between a 24% chance of getting a J.J. Watt or Odell Beckham and a 12% chance of landing one of those guys is a big deal for any team but especially one that is struggling to accumulate talent, like the Saints, Panthers, and Falcons.

If the goal is to win the Super Bowl, then I think I might prefer doubling my chances of getting a franchise-changing talent in the draft over this year’s slim chance of winning a championship. How slim is it? Vegas Insider lists the Saints, Panthers, and Falcons, as 65-1, 70-1, and 150-1 long-shots respectively. Even if you combine those, that’s only a 3.6% chance.

Still think it’s worth taking a shot at?

Ezra

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To be continued soon (here!). Thanks for reading and please feel free to chime in on Facebook, Fancred, Twitter or in the comments section below. We’d love to hear from you!