I don't always watch sports, but when I do, I prefer contrasts

Vamping on the great Dos Equis commercials that feature the “Most Interesting Man in the World” claiming, “I don’t always drink beer, but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis,” I don’t always watch sports, but when I do, I prefer contrasts. I think many sports fans are like this. I’d rather watch a great defense play against a great offense than watch two great offenses score mounds of points on each other or two great defenses circle each other cautiously. In boxing, I’d rather watch a hot-headed slugger face off against a tactically sound boxer. In baseball, I want to see if a great pitcher can throw his way through a murderer’s row of hitters or whether they tire him down. Even in individual sports like downhill skiing or golf, it’s more compelling if you can watch people approach the puzzle of winning in different ways. There are two sporting events tonight that promise big contrasts in style and I am looking forward to catching at least part of both of them. I’ll lay out the contrasts in this post, tell me if you watch and if so, whether you see and enjoy the contrasts I describe.

Cool vs. Hot at the U.S. Open

Tennis is perhaps the most psychologically difficult sport because its players are alone on the court for up to five hours. In major tournaments like the U.S. Open, they aren’t even allowed to speak to their coaches. To win a tennis match, men (women play only three sets) need to win three sets out of five. To win a set, they need to be the first to win six by two games or win in a tie-break. Games require them to get to four points but they have to win by two. In matches between players of relatively equal skill, temperament or injury almost always mean the difference between winning and losing.

Roger Federer’s name is all over the record books but perhaps his most impressive record is that he was ranked number one in the world for 237 weeks in a row. This record expresses his nature. He is cool. He doesn’t get ruffled. His movements are smooth, graceful, and efficient. He never looks like he’s trying that hard or, frankly, that he’s physically strong enough to keep up with his opponent. All of this explains, in part, how Federer can still be playing at such a high level at 33, an age at which most tennis players’ physical skills have degraded to the point that they cannot keep up anymore.

Gael Monfils looks like the member of a tennis playing species
Gael Monfils looks like the member of a tennis playing species

Federer’s opponent is the exact opposite. Gael Monfils is a physical freak. Federer looks like a robot programmed to play tennis. Monfils looks like a species genetically designed to play tennis. He’s tall, incredibly muscular, and flexible. His springs around the court like a modern dancer — never quite centered but never out of balance either. If it weren’t for his temperament, he’d probably be completely unbeatable. As it is, he spends a lot of time self-destructing on tennis courts. He screams at himself, gives up, tries again, gives up again. He can’t seem to help being a showman. The more important the moment is, the less he seems to be able to help leaping into shots or trying to hit the ball between his legs. The most dominant he’s ever looked on a tennis court was a rain delay dance competition at the French Open:

At least until this U.S. Open, in which Monfils, playing without a coach, hasn’t lost a single set. Monfils remains as compelling as he is confusing.

I have to admit, I kind of love both these players. I can’t help but root for old-age and treachery to win out over youth and vigor, so I want Federer to win. Meanwhile, Monfils’ unpredictability and pathos make me love him, and he just looks like he’s having more fun when he’s having fun out there than anyone else.  We’ll see what happens tonight around 8 p.m. on ESPN.

Defense vs. Offense to Start the NFL Season

The first NFL game is a celebration and would be must watch TV for sports fans no matter who was playing. That said, tonight’s game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Green Bay Packers provides a great contrast in everything but color. The Seahawks have the best defense in the league, with big, fast, and brash defenders flying all over the place, hitting anything that moves. The Packers offense has been in the top third of the league in scoring for the last five years. The Packers have a well established star at quarterback who leads an offense based on quick throws and immaculate timing. The Seahawks specialize in messing up offensive timing by hitting receivers (legally or illegally) at the line of scrimmage. The Seahawks offense tries to pound their opponents into the ground with powerful running attacks. The Packers defense was, well, frankly bad last year.

The only similarities between these teams is that they are both good, they both think they have a chance to win the Super Bowl this year, and they both wear green. See what happens at 8:30 p.m. ET on NBC.

Understanding Michael Sam's NFL experience

One of the biggest National Football Leagues (NFL) stories in the weeks leading up to the start of the season has been Michael Sam, the first openly gay man to be drafted by a professional team. As interesting as this story has the potential to be, most of the coverage just misses the mark because it fails to establish enough context. Almost all of the stories that I’ve read have assumed a base of knowledge about the offseason process in the NFL that only hardcore NFL fans have. Furthermore, even most attentive sports fans don’t have a real understanding of what the experience and expectations are for a marginal NFL prospect. Without this context, it’s very difficult to tell how much of what Michael Sam is going through is unique because of his historic status and how much of it is completely normal. We simply don’t often pay this much attention to low draft picks or undrafted players in the NFL. In this post, I’ll do my best to explain the context so that we all have a chance of better understanding Michael Sam’s NFL experience. In this effort, I’m aided enormously by Charles Siebert‘s amazing New York Times Magazine profile called The Hard Life of an NFL Long Shot about his nephew, Pat Schiller, who was, in 2012, in a similar situation to Sam’s.

How does the NFL offseason work?

The NFL offseason begins the day after the Super Bowl and ends when the first game of the season is played. It’s a seven month affair. To understand Sam’s experience, we should start at the NFL draft in mid-May. Over the course of a few days, the thirty-two NFL teams select 256 college players, an average of eight players per team although some teams may have more picks, some fewer. The Rams this year had eleven picks. After the draft, the draft picks agents negotiate with the team and most eventually settle on terms and sign a contract. Next up are OTAs or “organized team activities” which are basically glorified practice sessions in June or July that serve as the players first introduction to their teammates and coaches.

The official pre-season consists of four games exhibition games in consecutive weekends starting on August 7th this year. These four weeks of pre-season football work like a giant audition that teams hold for players. Strict rules and dates apply to this process. For the first three games, teams are allowed to have 90 people on their rosters. After the third game, teams have to cut their players/applicants down from 90 to 75. After the fourth game, that number drops to the regular season norm, 53 players per team. In the course of a month, the number of players on NFL teams goes from 2,880 to 1,696 for a reduction of 41%. In a lot of ways, this whole process reminds me of the job market for professors. Each year hundreds of new PhDs come out of graduate school but the number of professor jobs remains relatively static. So it is with football players. Each year, around 300 college players try to get jobs in the NFL but the number of available jobs remain the same. There’s simply not enough room for everyone.

Football is a brutal game on the field and a brutal business off it. Players who get cut get nothing — contracts at this level have no guaranteed money. Their options are bleak because there aren’t many other football leagues where you can make a good living. What they can do and do do is go home, keep training, and wait for a phone call from an NFL team that may never come. When that call comes, more often than not, it’s for a place on a team’s practice squad. The practice squad or scout team is a group of up to ten players that a team can employ in addition to their 53-man roster. These players are usually used to imitate the tendencies and peculiarities of an opponent in practices for the week leading up to a game. Practice squad players are officially free-agents so they can be signed to the full-time roster by any team who likes them whether that’s the team whose practice squad they are on or not.

This whole process is physically and psychologically incredibly challenging for the players who go through it. Let’s lean on Siebert here for a feel of what it’s like to go through it.

First, players who have been the best of the best for their whole lives have to come to terms with their new status and struggle. As Schiller said to Siebert:

And then you come to the N.F.L. and, well, I’ve never felt so bad at a sport I know I’m good at.

Injuries are suffered in silence for fear of being tagged as injury prone or simply replaced with a healthier aspiring player:

There was no thought, he said, of seeking out a trainer. Everything a rookie does in camp is documented, and visits to the training room leave the wrong impression.“We have an expression here,” he told me. “ ‘You don’t make the club in the tub.”’

Injuries to great to hide are a marginal player’s biggest fear:

He picked up an empty bottle of anti-inflammatory pills and tossed it in the trash.“Even if I make it,” he said, “the average career is what, three or four years tops. But if I get hurt now, I’m gone. It’s nothing personal. If I’m injured, I’m dead weight. I’m stealing their money. Do you know how many linebackers there are sitting home right now that want my job? Hundreds. I mean, let’s get real. As much as Coach Smith or Coach Pires might like me, it would be: ‘Hey, it’s been a fun ride. You’re a good kid. But see ya, Schiller!’ ”

But they are also a source of great hope because an injury to an established player could make room for them on the team’s roster:

Pat sat bolt upright, grabbed the remote and scrolled back through the game to determine the precise moment James entered. He then went to the Falcons’ game thread on his computer, eyes narrowing, lips slightly parted in anticipation.“Stephen Nicholas,” he muttered. “Ankle.”For the next two days of my visit, we were on the Stephen Nicholas ankle watch.

What happened to Michael Sam?

Michael Sam was drafted in the seventh round by the St. Louis Rams. In some ways this was an ideal result for him. Coach Jeff Fisher is well-known as one of the more progressive coaches in the league. He was firm in stating that Sam’s sexual preference was not going to be an issue or a factor within the team and he has the standing to make most observers believe him. The Rams also have one of the best defensive lines in the league. Their two starters at defensive end, the position Sam plays, Chris Long and Robert Quinn, are as close to being household names as you can get playing that position. Sam was in a position to learn from the best but he also had a tough fight ahead of him to make the team. As Siebert writes in his article, “The math of making an N.F.L. roster seems straight forward. There are 40 or so players who are Ones and Twos on offense and defense. Then there is a punter, at least one kicker, a long snapper and often a third-string quarterback. This leaves just a handful of positions available.” Those positions often go, not to the next best player at a position, but to the player who can be most valuable to a team on their Special Teams’ units that return or cover kickoffs and punts. As a former star in college and a big dude at 261 lbs, Sam is at a disadvantage in this arena. He’s probably never played on a special teams unit before and players his size at his position usually do not.

Sam made it through the cut from 90 players to 75 but not the last one to 53 players. The St. Louis Rams cut Sam on August 30. He wouldn’t have long to wait before his next opportunity though. On September 3, the Dallas Cowboys signed Sam to their practice squad. The Cowboys have a less heralded defensive line but even so, Sam will be working hard on the practice squad, trying to impress without getting injured, probably needing an injury on the Cowboys or on another team in order to get signed. This is more likely than it seems. There have already been 113 players put on Injured Reserve or the Physically Unable to Perform list since the start of August. My guess is that Sam will play in an NFL game this year.

How typical was Sam’s experience? Did his sexual identity matter?

This is the hardest question to answer. From what I know, it seems like Sam’s experience was fairly normal for a player drafted in the seventh round. I did a little research on the 41 players drafted with Sam in the seventh round this year and of them 19 or just under half have already been injured or cut. Of the RResults of 2014 Seventh Round NFL Draft Picksams’ four seventh round draft picks, none made the team.

The two questions that loom largest in my mind about Sam’s experience, both of which I cannot answer, are whether his sexual identity could have made him get drafted later than he would have otherwise (which would make it harder for him to make the team because the team perceives themselves as having committed less and sunk less cost into him) and how much the pressure of being a trailblazer may have affected his play in the pre-season.

Of course Sam’s sexual identity or more accurately, other’s perception of his sexual identity and the focus it created on him, affected his experience in innumerable ways. That said, I’m not sure we’ll ever know whether it may have changed Sam’s NFL outcome in the ways I suggested above. I hope, for Sam’s sake and for our sake as a culture, that Sam makes them a non-issue by playing well in the NFL later this season. If it’s not in the cards for him, I don’t think we’ll have long to wait for another brave, gay football player to come along.

Oh, and in case you were wondering what happened to Pat Schiller, the aspiring football player from the great New York Times magazine article? He’s still pursuing his dream. He was one of the players competing with Sam for a spot on the Rams this summer. He made the team as a fourth-string linebacker and special teams player.

Cue Cards 9-4-2014

clapperboardCue Cards is a series designed to assist with the common small talk about high-profile recent sporting events that is so omnipresent in the workplace, the bar, and other social settings.

Yesterday —  September 3

  1. Djokovic beats Murray — The most highly anticipated men’s tennis match yesterday was the nightcap of the U.S. Open between Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic. With a start time right around 10 p.m., there was the possibility of it lasting until 3 a.m. if it had gone into a fifth set competitively. Instead, after two very close sets which both went into tie-breaks, Murray seemed to fade because of hip and back pain and Djokovic won the final two sets by a wide margin. The two players have been playing each other since they were 13!

    Line: “What a shame that Murray lost it physically because the first two sets were so close. I’m not sure anyone left can beat Djokovic.”

  2. The two faces of baseball — Yesterday’s slate of baseball games had two great games on either side of the baseball spectrum. Both were competitive and close. One was a low-scoring “pitcher’s duel” and the other was a big-hitting “slugfest.” The Seattle Mariners beat the Oakland Athletics 2-1 in a matchup between great pitchers Felix Hernandez (Seattle) and Jon Lester (Oakland). The Washington Nationals beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in a game that needed extra innings over the normal nine because it was tied after nine. The game ended in the fourteenth inning after the Nationals scored three runs in that inning.

    Line: “People love those high scoring baseball games but I really appreciate a well played defensive game like the one between Oakland and Seattle.

  3. Here comes football — actual sporting events aside, the thing on most sports fans’ minds today is going to be the National Football Leagues season which starts tonight with a game between the defending champions, the Seattle Seahawks, and the Green Bay Packers. Seattle is expected to again have the best defense in the league while Green Bay is expected to have one of the best offenses. The NFL is the least predictable of the major sports leagues but this seems like it will be an exciting game.

    Line: “Remember last year when the defending champion Baltimore Ravens got beat by the Denver Broncos 49 to 27? It could happen again… but I doubt it because Seattle’s defense is too good.”

The FIBA Basketball World Cup heats up today

Expect a great atmosphere when Spain plays France
Expect a great atmosphere when Spain plays France

So, a sports blogger walks into a bar… No, it’s not really the start of a joke. Or at least if it is, I don’t know the punchline. But I did sit in a bar and nurse a beer for about an hour yesterday in an attempt to find an air-conditioned spot while I killed time before my fantasy draft. I was alone, so I watched some U.S. Open tennis on the television and listened to the three guys next to me in the bar talk. Like lots of people on barstools, they talked mostly about sports. They were being prompted by a sports highlights show on another television and a video of the New Zealand national basketball team doing their traditional pre-game Haka got them talking about the FIBA Basketball World Cup. Here’s the dance, which is worth watching:

Now, I love basketball and I love dance, so I think this is awesome. The guys on the bar stools… not so much. I was surprised at how little interest they had in the basketball tournament. Who could possibly win but the United States, they complained? Even with many of the best U.S. players not playing. Why is there even basketball on at this time of the year? Despite this sampling of opinion from the man on the street[1] I’m going to fight upstream here and point out a couple exciting things that are happening at the Basketball World Cup today.

As explained in our post on how the Basketball World Cup works, the first round is a group stage where the best four of the six teams in each of the three groups advance to the next round. As of today, every team has played three of the five first round games. This means, with two games remaining, we have a much better idea of which teams are good and which games are likely to be exciting and important.

There’s a bunch of them on the schedule today:

7:30 a.m. ET — Philippines vs. Puerto Rico — Why would a game between two winless teams be exciting? It’s the nature of international competition. These teams want to take a win back to their home countries and this is their best chance to do it!

11:30 a.m. ET — Senegal vs. Argentina — Surprising Senegal tries to continue its run. One more win would ensure them a spot in the next round. Plus, how can you not root for a team whose coach says, “Other teams come here to win the tournament. We are here to win.”

4:00 p.m. ET — France vs. Spain — It’s no surprise that the organizers of the tournament decided to put this game in Grenada, far to the south of Spain. In a clash between bordering countries, why would the host country give the French fans an easy trip to the game? National rivalries are a great feature of international tournaments and I expect the atmosphere for this game to be great. Undefeated Spain is the more talented team but France has been surprisingly good, even without its best player, Tony Parker.

Footnotes    (↵ returns to text)

  1. Or at least the men on the barstools

Cue Cards 9-3-14

clapperboardCue Cards is a series designed to assist with the common small talk about high-profile recent sporting events that is so omnipresent in the workplace, the bar, and other social settings.

Yesterday —  September 2

  1. The Quiet Before the Storm — Not to step on my own blog here but there just wasn’t that much high profile sports going on yesterday. Because of that, most sports fans’ minds will be full of anticipation for the NFL season, which starts on Thursday, and their own fantasy teams.
  2. Tennis in a Sauna — The tennis players at the U.S. Open yesterday had to play under very adverse conditions. It was in the low 90s with 45% humidity. I live about 30 blocks from the stadium and I had to take a supplementary shower yesterday afternoon just from blogging. I can only imagine how horrible it must have been for people trying to play tennis! The notable winners of the day were Roger Federer and Gael Monfils who will play each other in the next round and Caroline Wozniaki and Peng Shuai who will play each other for a place in the finals.
  3. If College Football is the Thing — Then you will have paid attention to the release of the weekly top 25 teams put out by the Associated Press. Although it’s essentially meaningless until the end of the season, college football fans pay close attention to where their team is ranked throughout the year. It’s a source of great conversation and consternation throughout the nation.

Cue Cards 9-2-14

clapperboardCue Cards is a series designed to assist with the common small talk about high-profile recent sporting events that is so omnipresent in the workplace, the bar, and other social settings.

Over the Weekend —  August 29 to September 1

  1. Harbingers of NFL Football — The professional football season starts this Thursday with one game and then this Sunday with a dozen others. Since the NFL is by far the most popular professional sports league, the upcoming season will likely dominate most water cooler type situations this week. Depending on where you live, your friends, family, and colleagues will be obsessing over the details of a different team but one national story that may spark conversation was the cutting of Michael Sam. Sam, the first openly gay football player to be drafted into the NFL was cut by the team that drafted him this weekend. The questions being asked are, “How much, if any, did being gay play into his being cut? And will he get a chance to play for real this season?”
  2. College football went mostly as planned — As we covered last week, the first weekend of college football is full of easy games for the top twenty five teams in the country. As expected, only three of the top twenty five teams lost their first game, and those were the three (well, three of the six) teams that were brave enough to play another top twenty five team.
  3. The U.S. Open rounds into shape — The major tennis tournament enters its second full week and has narrowed its field to eight women and twelve men. As has often been the case with tennis in the last few years, the male side of the bracket has been more predictable and all three of the favorites, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, and Roger Federer, are still alive. The women’s side, as has also been the pattern, is more fractured. Of the top seeds, only Serena Williams is still playing. Williams and Federer both have 17 major tournament victories during their wonderful careers. It would be great to see them both play for number 18.
  4. The Basketball World Cup — The FIBA basketball world cup in Spain is underway and after two or three games in each group… nothing surprising has happened. Spain and the United States are still undefeated and look destined to play in the finals against each other. The United States did struggle against Turkey — they even trailed at half-time — but outscored Turkey 63 to 37 in the second half to win by a comfortable margin.

It's the first college football Saturday. What's worth watching?

A couple days ago, to celebrate and brace myself for the first weekend of the college football season, I wrote a post and created an infographic showing which of the top 25 teams have scheduled legitimate games against teams of relatively even strength. There are sixty college football games on today’s schedule but only two of them show up as “spinach” games according to our logic. So, if you want to see some college football today, I recommend you watch Georgia vs. Clemson or LSU vs. Wisconsin.

 

Dear Sports Fan College Football Cupcakes

Cue Cards 8-29-14

clapperboardCue Cards is a series designed to assist with the common small talk about high-profile recent sporting events that is so omnipresent in the workplace, the bar, and other social settings.

Yesterday — Thursday, August 28

  1. College Football Begins with a Splat — The first real day of college football was supposed to have at least two good, even “spinach” games. We even put out an infographic showing why. But, as they say, anything can happen on any given Sunday or even Thursday. Both games turned into blow outs with Texas A&M beating South Carolina 52-28 and Mississippi beating Boise State 35-13.
  2. See Ya Ci Ci — The cinderella run of 15 year-old Ci Ci Bellis in the U.S. Open came to an end when she lost to Zarina Diyas. Her age finally came through in her play which was up and down and even more in the interview following her loss. When little leaguer Mo’Ne Davis was in the news recently, at least one of the narratives was “Should we be covering kids as closely as this? Is it good for them?” In tennis, where 15 year-olds can be professionals, that narrative is missing.
  3. The NFL Adjusts — The NFL announced a new policy on domestic violence. A first offense will be answered with a six game suspension, a second offense with a “lifetime ban” although violators can apply for reinstatement. This policy will be applied to everyone who works under the league umbrella, not just players. It’s a clear response to the bad press that the NFL has received over the suspension of Baltimore Running Back, Ray Rice, who was given two games for domestic abuse.

When is a football game a cupcake?

The 2014 college football season starts this weekend. College football is a peculiar sport in a few ways. It’s a very short season — most teams play 11 or 12 games. There’s no real pre-season, so teams don’t get that much of a chance to warm up. Any loss during the regular season almost eliminates most teams from championship contention. Add to these three factors, the fact that colleges are able to schedule their own opponents for the first three or four weeks of the year, before conference play begins, and you get a recipe for… a pretty boring first weekend of football.

Why is that? Well, there’s a real incentive for the top teams to win their first several games. There’s a ton of money involved. Top teams are expected to go almost undefeated every year and the financial difference to their university between going into the fifth or sixth game of the season undefeated or with one early loss is immense.  So, many top teams schedule what they think are going to be very easy games for the first few weeks of the season. They actually pay smaller or weaker teams to go on the road and play them in their home stadiums. Last year the biggest single game payment was made by Alabama to Colorado State. Alabama paid $1,500,000 for Colorado State to travel to Tuscaloosa where they lost, as expected but not arranged, 31-6. Losing is not part of the deal, but it’s part of the deal.

This isn’t all bad, it gives small teams a chance to make lots of money and also to play spoiler. Some of them can make a name for themselves by playing better than expected or even upsetting the host team. But it does mean that big established teams play a lot more at home than smaller teams which doesn’t seem fair if you think about the players as people who have families and friends who want to see them in person. It also means that a LOT of the games in the first few weeks are really not worth watching.

Using the preseason Associated Press Preseason Top 25 and Jeff Sagarin’s ranking of all teams, I put together an analysis of the opening weekend games to see which of the top 25 teams had scheduled easy games, moderate games, and which had scheduled games against opponents of relatively even strength to them. The term cupcake is a commonly used term to refer to a game a good team schedules against a weaker team and should win. I rolled with it and invented the terms “dinner roll” to refer to the not-so-unfair games that some teams scheduled and “spinach” to refer to an evenly matched game. From my perspective, it’s these spinach games that we should watch this weekend.

Without further ado, here is the first ever Dear Sports Fan infographic:

Dear Sports Fan College Football Cupcakes

Cue Cards 8-28-14

clapperboardCue Cards is a series designed to assist with the common small talk about high-profile recent sporting events that is so omnipresent in the workplace, the bar, and other social settings.

Yesterday — Wednesday, August 27

  1. A Slew of Suspensions • #1 — NFL player Josh Gordon was finally suspended after a long appeals process for a full year because of testing positive for weed. The knee-jerk reaction is going to be to compare the length of his suspension for a non-violent offense to Ray Rice’s two games after assaulting his fiancée. It’s a little bit of a false comparison because the penalties for substance abuse were collectively bargained for and agreed to by the owners and the players union. Also, the chemicals in an athletes body seem more reasonably the jurisdiction of a sports league interested in protecting the fairness of their competition than any crime off the field, no matter how horrible. Then again, weed seems to be on its way to being legalized most everywhere and sexual assault is really, really, really awful. Maybe the knee-jerk reaction is the right one.
  2. A Slew of Suspensions • #2 — University of Southern California football player John Shaw has been suspended indefinitely after admitting his story about spraining his ankles while saving his nephew from drowning was a lie. The indefinite duration probably has something to do with the fact that the true story of the ankle sprains is still either not known or not known publicly. This type of blundering is a good way to remind ourselves, right before the college football season starts, that as much as they look like grown, professional, super-hero athletes, college athletes are still basically kids.
  3. A Slew of Suspensions • # 3 — The University of North Carolina has suspended four of their college football players after an “alleged hazing incident that left walk-on freshman wideout Jackson Boyer with a concussion.” Not much to really say about this one. Even if it wasn’t hazing, it sounds like assault. I suppose it’s helpful to also remember that there are around 125 college students on each of the 125 (symmetry not intended) division one college football teams in the country. That’s 15,625 men from age 18 to 22 who, when they get into trouble, are going to be in the news.
  4. Actual Sports • U.S. Open Upsets — Heat and humidity fray the nerves of even the most casual commuter in New York. So it’s no surprise that it works its evil on tennis players sprinting around mid-day for two to five hours. Two big names on the women’s side of the U.S. Open lost yesterday to relative unknowns. Number four ranked Aga Radwanska lost to Peng Shuai and Sloan Stephens lost to Johanna Larsson.