Tag: playoffs

The good and evil of baseball's Wild Card game

Major League Baseball’s Wild Card Game is a unique way to start the playoffs. This year’s two games, the New York Yankees vs. the Houston Astros in the American League and the Chicago Cubs vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League, clearly represent what is good and what is evil about the Wild Card Game. The Yankees vs. Astros game has everything that’s good about the game, while the Cubs vs. Pirates game is everything that’s evil. I’ll explain what I mean by this, but first, here’s a quick reminder of how the playoffs are constructed and what the Wild Card Game is.

There are 30 Major League Baseball (MLB) teams. These teams are broken up into two conferences of 15 teams each, the American League (AL) and National League (NL), and three divisions of five teams each. After 162 regular season games, the team with the best record within each division is declared the division winner (said to have “won the pennant”) and automatically qualifies for the playoffs. Since the goal of the playoffs is to end up with the best team from the NL playing against the best team from the AL, three teams from each league is an awkward number to have. Four would be better, because then you could have two teams play each other, and then the winner of each of those matchups play to end up with a single team. The simple way to get from three teams to four is to add a single extra team, called a Wild Card, by selecting the team with the best record in the conference that isn’t a division winner. That’s how baseball did it from 1994 to 2011. In 2012 they added a fifth team — a second Wild Card team — by selecting the team with the second best record in the conference that isn’t a division winner. Since five is also an awkward number of teams, the playoffs are designed to quickly get back down to four. The two Wild Card teams in each league play a single elimination game to decide which of them gets to be the fourth team and play a seven game series against one of the three division winners. (If you want more detail, read my full post on how the MLB playoffs work.)

The Wild Card Game is at its best when it’s between two teams like the New York Yankees and Houston Astros. The Yankees are the winningest team in baseball history. They have won 27 World Series, a whopping 16 more than the next best team. Although they are only second in the league in payroll this year, they’re famous and infamous for spending more money on players than any other team can afford or would want to afford. They’re the bullies of the league, the royalty — Darth Vadar and his army of clones. They were the first Wild Card team and would have been the only one had the system still only taken one. Playing them are the Houston Astros. The Astros are almost the complete opposite of the Yankees. They’ve been playing in MLB since 1962 and have never won a World Series. They haven’t even made the playoffs in the past decade. They have the sixth lowest payroll in the league. As a very casual baseball fan, I literally cannot name a single player on their team. They are a surprise, a heart-warming story. The Wild Card game gives the Astros a chance when they wouldn’t have had one otherwise. It creates a wonderful and dramatic spectacle. And it provides a clear rooting interest for all non-partisan fans. Why wouldn’t you want to see the Astros knock off the Yankees and stride into the playoffs? Watching this game is all upside – if the Astros win, it will be glorious; if the Yankees win, then giving the Astros an extra game didn’t cause anyone any harm. This Wild Card game is all about opportunity.

The NL Wild Card Game between the Cubs and Pirates is bad in all the ways the AL game is good. The Cubs and Pirates are both teams that are easy for unaffiliated fans to root for. The Cubs famously have not won the World Series since 1908, the longest streak of bad fortune in the league. What you might not know is that they’ve actually played in the World Series and lost seven times since then! The Pirates have won it more recently, in 1979, but haven’t been back since. Both teams are chock-full of young, talented, exciting players, like Andrew McCutchen on the Pirates and rookie phenom Kris Bryant on the Cubs. Both teams have strong-fan bases who have stuck with them through the fallow years. There are lots of reasons for neutral fans to want both teams to advance, so while this game may actually be a better baseball game than the Yankees vs. Astros, it’s far, far more insidious. There’s simply no way you’re going to watch this game and leave without your dominant feeling being one of sadness for the eliminated team. This Wild Card Game doesn’t feel like it’s about opportunity. It feels like it’s a cruel trick to play on teams that have worked so hard during a long, grueling season.

What’s the solution? A third Wild Card team? A three game Wild Card mini-series? I’m not sure. My short term-solution is to watch the AL Wild Card Game and root for the Astros but ignore the NL Wild Card Game entirely. Just tell me which team advanced and which team got screwed. As intriguing as I find both NL teams, the inevitable heartbreak is not worth the investment.

How does the men's college baseball World Series work?

Dear Sports Fan,

Why doesn’t anyone watch men’s college baseball? I think it’s because the format of their tournament is impossible to understand. I might watch it if I understood how it works. Could you tell me? How does the men’s college baseball World Series work?

Thanks,
Stacy

Dear Stacy,

Men’s college baseball often gets a bad rap. This is partially because professional baseball has an extensive minor league system that snaps up many of the future professional baseball players before they hit college. Losing these players robs college baseball of the air of elite competition that college football and basketball still have. Another factor certainly is persistent slight confusion around how a championship team is determined. The men’s college World Series follows a more complex format than most competitions we’re used to watching, but it’s not beyond our understanding by any means. Here’s how it works.

The tournament begins, like March Madness, the college basketball tournament does, with 64 teams. In the baseball championship, these teams are split into 16 groups of four teams each. These groups of four teams will play each other until one can be identified as the winner of the group. That team moves on to the next round of the tournament. This round, with 64 teams is called the Regional. The next round, with only 16 teams is called the Super Regional. Although groups of four are reminiscent of the men’s World Cup and the women’s World Cup in soccer, there are two major differences. Instead of two or three teams advancing from the group of four, as in the World Cup, only one team advances. Also, the format of competition is different. Instead of a round robing, where each team plays the others once, this part of the college baseball championships are played as a double elimination tournament.

The principle of double-elimination is simple. The teams play each other until every team but one has lost twice. As teams accrue their second defeats, they are eliminated from the tournament. Pretty easy, right? The only tricky part is how to decide who plays who. Within each group, the four teams are ranked or seeded from one to four. This allows the succeeding games to be played out formulaically.

  • Game 1: Team 1 plays Team 4
  • Game 2: Team 2 plays Team 3
  • Game 3: The winner of Game 1 plays the winner of Game 2
  • Game 4: The loser of Game 1 plays the loser of Game 2
  • Game 5: The loser of Game 3 plays the winner of Game 4
  • Game 6: The winner of Game 3 plays the winner of Game 5. Note that at this point, the winner of Game 3 is, by definition, undefeated. They won the first game they played — either Game 1 or Game 2 — and then won the matchup between themselves and the winner of the other of the first two games. Their opponent in this game has to have lost a single game before. In order to play in and win Game 5 to qualify for this game, they would have had to either lose Game 1 or 2 (and win Game 4) or lose Game 3. That’s all just a complicated way to say that this game, Game 6 is between a team with one loss and a team with zero losses. If the team that comes into this game with one loss, loses, then the regional is over. Every team will have lost two games. If they win, then both teams involved will only have one loss and another game, Game 7, must be played to decide who advances.
  • Game 7: The same two teams as Game 6, if needed to decide a regional champion.

For bonus confusion, seeing “Game 7, if needed” triggers thoughts in a sports fan’s mind of a best-four-out-of-seven series. This is the most common playoff format, used in professional baseball, hockey, and basketball. In that format, Game 7s may not be needed if one team beats the other four times in the first four, five, or six games. That’s why you’ll also see “Game 5, if needed” or “Game 6, if needed) in those sports. Never in college baseball’s regionals — in the double elimination format within groups of four teams, only the seventh game is dependent on earlier results to be necessary. The first six will always be played.

After the Regional round, the teams advance to the Super Regionals. In the Super Regionals, the 16 remaining teams are grouped into pairings of two teams each. These pairings are pre-set before the tournament, the winner of Group A will play the winner of Group B, no matter who those winners are. Within each pairing, the teams play a best-two-out-of-three series. In a sense, this is still a double elimination format, but it’s not unusual in the way the Regional round format was. Best-two-out-of-three is easily understood. It’s how many people settled sibling or friendly disputes as kids, with rock-paper-scissors or odds and evens.

The Super Regional best-two-out-of-three series get the field from 16 to eight teams. From there, the tournament enters the College World Series. This eight team tournament within a tournament follows the same pattern as the last two rounds, just with fewer teams. First, the eight teams are split into two groups of four. Within those groups, the teams play a double-elimination tournament like they did in the Regional round above. Once this is done, six more teams (three in each group of four) will have been eliminated. The remaining two teams face each other in a best-two-out-of-three game series to crown an overall men’s college World Series champion.

This year, 2015, those two teams are Virginia and Vanderbilt — the same two teams as last year. The series starts tonight, Monday, June 22 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. Game 2 will be Tuesday at the same time and channel and Game Three (if needed) will be on Wednesday at the same time and channel. Last year, Vanderbilt won the first game 9-8, lost the second 2-7, but won the third and deciding game, 3-2 to become the 2014 champion. Only time will tell if they can repeat or if Virginia will take their revenge.

Thanks for reading,
Ezra Fischer

The 'this game is important' playoff series trick

It’s playoff time in the NBA and NHL, so if you walk into a sports bar or, you know, your living room, you’re likely to bump right into a great basketball or hockey game. The basketball and hockey playoffs follow virtually the same format. Each has four rounds and each round is a seven game series where two games play each other for up to seven games. The first team to win four games wins the series. Once a team has won four games, the series is over (they don’t play seven games no matter what) and one team advances to the next round of the playoffs and the other team is eliminated. The games in a series are referred to by number: Game One, Game Two, etc. When you watch a playoff game on TV, you’ll almost invariably hear the announcers talk about a statistic that goes something like this:

Teams that win Game X win the series Y percent of the time.

This statistic bugs me because it’s misleading and a transparent ploy on the part of the television networks to retain viewers. Here’s why it’s misleading.

When we hear a percentage, we’re used to evaluating it as if either 0% or 50% is the baseline. If I hear that “people who eat apples at 2:03 p.m. get hit by cars within the next two hours 54% of the time” I’m going to assume the baseline is close to 0% and go out of my way to avoid apples at that time. If I hear that “teams that wear green win 49% of the time,” that sounds to me like the baseline is 50% and green is a slight disadvantage. The difference with this statistic is that the baseline is not 50%. Not even close! One win in a seven game series is a big deal! Teams only need to win four games to win the whole series. A victory in any game is a 25% contribution to the final goal. I don’t know exactly what the math is here (math friends, help!) but I’m going to say, since they’re 1/4 of the way to winning, let’s add 12.5% (1/4 of 50) to 50% and use that as the baseline. Just by winning a game (no matter what number game it is) a team has materially contributed to its own task of winning the series. Fine, you say, “but the statistics you hear are even higher than 62.5%.” Just wait, there’s more.

The next tricky trick trick in this misleading statistic is a problem with how the data is selected. In my last post about misleading statistics, the one on runs in basketball, I described a trick about including too little data in a statistic. Here we have the opposite problem. Instead of excluding data, the clever (and dramatic) people who create these statistics include too much data. Almost every year, there are at least a few seven game series in the NHL and NBA playoffs that are mismatches. The playoffs are actually designed to create this. The way they work is that the best team in the regular season (the #1 seed) plays the worst qualifying playoff team (the #8 seed) in the first round. #2 plays #7, #3 plays #6, and #4 plays #5. Now, these are professional sports, so usually the difference between a #1 and an #8 is not as great as you might see in March Madness. Still, some #1 teams are just way, way better than the #8 team they face. Maybe the #8 wins one game but loses the series 4-1. Not infrequently, a superior team will actually win four straight games, which is called a sweep.

Sweeps are legitimate playoff series, but they’re not usually all that suspenseful. In a matchup between a clearly superior team and a clearly inferior team, use of one of these statistics would be silly because the number of the game is immaterial next to the fact that one team is better. In the NBA, the Cleveland Cavaliers just swept the Boston Celtics. The Cavaliers have the best basketball player in the world, LeBron James, and their second and third best players are almost unanimously thought of as better than anyone the Celtics have on their team right now. The Cavaliers are better. The big problem with this, is that the data gets lumped in with all the rest of the data. When you add their data in, it’s going to inflate the correlation between winning Games One through Four with winning the series.

What the statistic is really trying to convince us of is that the specific number of the game is important — that this game is more important than the one before it or after it in the series. To do that, it uses too much data (including series between teams of very different skills) and also our own assumption about what the baseline of a percentage statistic should be. It’s possible that some number games do have more impact on the result of a series between two evenly matched teams than others and I’d be very interested in seeing a true analysis of that. Until then, ignore what any commentator tells you about the importance of a game. Unless, of course, that game is Game Seven, in which case, even I can tell you that the team that wins Game Seven wins the series 100% of the time.

Sports Stories: Waffle fries and victory

Everyone has a sports story. As part of my mission to create peace in the world between sports fans and non-sports fans, I am doing a set of interviews of people on both sides of the line. Whether you’re a die-hard fan with their favorite player’s face tattooed onto their body or someone who is not a fan but whose life intersects with sports in some way, you have a valuable story to tell. Sign up today to tell your story on our easy to use booking page.

To get things started, I’ll be sharing some of my own personal sports stories here.

Although we grew up in Central New Jersey, my friend James and I have been Pittsburgh Penguins hockey fans for around 20 years. Like many young people (read this New York Times article about this phenomenon) we jumped on the bandwagon of a winning team in that impressionable age bracket between 8 and 12. Back then, the Penguins were a skilled hockey team that played a wide open style of play. They didn’t care so much if their opposition scored five goals because they were convinced they could score six. This provided a striking contrast with our local team, the New Jersey Devils, whose tactical choice to turn hockey into a grapple-first, skate-second sport eventually sparked widespread rule changes. Not only were we rooting for a winner, but we felt we had the favor of the hockey gods.

Fast forward to the Spring of 2009 and James I were both living in New York City. We weren’t close friends but we hadn’t had a falling out, either. Call us, dormant friends. Then, the NHL playoffs started, and for the second year in a row, the Penguins began a deep run. In the first round, they faced their dreaded rivals, the Philadelphia Flyers. We started meeting up for games at a bar convenient to both of us called Dewey’s. The Penguins beat the Flyers in Game Six of the series. After giving up 3 goals to start that game, the diminutive and much-loved Penguin, Max Talbot, picked a fight with a much bigger Flyer. Talbot “got his ass kicked” as he said later, but it seemed to snap the team out of their malaise, and they rattled off five straight goals to win the game and the series. It was glorious.

Over the next few weeks, as the Penguins progressed closer and closer to their goal of winning the Stanley Cup, James and I settled into a superstitious pattern. Go to Dewey’s. Sit in the back. Get the waitress or busboy (most of whom knew us by then) to turn on the game. Order a pitcher of Yuengling. At the start of the second period, order chicken fingers and cheese fries and share them. We even had roles to play. James was the optimist, I was the pessimist. “They’re not going to win,” I would say, “the other team is too big, too strong, their goalie is too good.” James would talk me down. Our act worked. The Penguins beat the Capitals 6-2 in Game Seven on the road to win that series 4-3. The conference finals were a breeze — a four game sweep over the Carolina Hurricanes. This set up a rematch of the previous year’s Stanley Cup Finals between the Penguins and the Red Wings.

The series was an epic. The Red Wings won two games at home, then the Penguins won two games at home. The Red Wings took game five, the Penguins took game seven. Before we knew it, we were looking at one last evening at Dewey’s for game seven of the Stanley Cup Finals. There’s nothing better or more thoroughly nerve-wracking than a game seven. The only problem was — James was hosting a party in his apartment that night. Not to worry, he said, he would get a friend to open his door and we could join the party after the game. NO WAY was he going to be responsible for a Penguins loss by changing up our routine.

We went to Dewey’s. The Penguins won. We hopped into a cab and rode it to Red Hook, Brooklyn, screaming happy inanities periodically through the open windows.

Thanks for reading. Share your sports stories with me soon. Book some time today.

NBA Playoff Companion, April 18, 2015

The playoffs are a wonderful time in sports but they can be hard to follow, even for the most die-hard fan of a playoff team. They’re virtually impossible for a non-fan or casual observer! No matter who you are, Dear Sports Fan’s Playoff Companion can help. Sign up to get text updates each day for your favorite team or teams or just for the team or teams you feel you need to know about in order to be able to have a decent conversation with your wife, husband, son, daughter, parent, colleague, or friend.

Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards — Game 1, 12:30 p.m. ET on ESPN — Series is 0-0

Toronto Raptors fans – We’ve got the best home-court advantage in the league. Time to use it.
Toronto Raptors interested parties – After five years without playoffs, Raptors fans went nuts last year when their team made it. This year should be no different.

Washington Wizards fans – Time to wipe the slate clean. Ignore the last few weeks/months of terrible play. This team can flip the switch, right?
Washington Wizards interested parties – The Wizards started the year off playing great and have steadily looked worse and worse. Fans will be hoping they can return to their winning ways.

Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans — Game 1, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC — Series is 0-0

Golden State Warriors fans – Time to get back in gear after a coupe weeks of meaningless games.
Golden State Warriors interested parties – After an incredible year in which the Warriors won the most games in the league by far, the slate is wiped clean for the start of the playoffs.

New Orleans Pelicans fans – We can’t match up with their guards but they can’t match up with our Brow. Let’s steal game one.
New Orleans Pelicans interested parties – Virtually any scenario that leads to the unlikely upset of the Warriors begins with a win today.

Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks — Game 1, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN — Series is 0-0

Chicago Bulls fans – Forget about all the injuries and struggles this year. The team is healthy today and that’s all that matters.
Chicago Bulls interested parties – If you had told a Bulls fan before the year that they would enter the playoffs healthy facing Milwaukee, they would have taken it. Although the season has been a struggle with lots of injuries, the team got where it was trying to go.

Milwaukee Bucks fans – We’re the best kept secret in the league. And that secret is about to be broken over the backs of the Bulls.
Milwaukee Bucks interested parties – The Bucks are underdogs in this series but they’re a dangerous type of underdog — young, gifted, and athletic.

Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks — Game 1, 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN — Series is 0-0

Houston Rockets fans – There’s really no reason to be worried about the Mavs, so why do I have a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach?
Houston Rockets interested parties – Rockets fans should be confident, but there’s always something about playing a veteran team that’s had success like the Mavs had to make you uneasy.

Dallas Mavericks fans – The first game will tell us a lot. If Rondo can slow down Harden, then all his nonsense might have been worth it.
Dallas Mavericks interested parties – The Mavericks gambled mid-season by trading for Rajon Rondo. So far it hasn’t seemed like a good trade but the playoffs will be the true test.

Stanley Cup Playoff Companion, April 16, 2015

The playoffs are a wonderful time in sports but they can be hard to follow, even for the most die-hard fan of a playoff team. They’re virtually impossible for a non-fan or casual observer! No matter who you are, Dear Sports Fan’s Playoff Companion can help. Sign up to get text updates each day for your favorite team or teams or just for the team or teams you feel you need to know about in order to be able to have a decent conversation with your wife, husband, son, daughter, parent, colleague, or friend.

New York Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins — Game 1, 7 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Network — Series is 0-0

New York Rangers fans – Better record, deeper team, more reliable goalie. No need for cockiness but lots of reasons for confidence.
New York Rangers interested parties – The Penguins have the two best players in the series, but the Rangers may have the next ten. In hockey, the better team should win.

Pittsburgh Penguins fans – After years of cruising into the playoffs only to come crashing down, maybe backing into them is going to be good luck?
Pittsburgh Penguins interested parties – These Penguins are not like the Penguins of the last five years. They’re a distinct underdog in this series.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings — Game 1, 7:30 p.m. ET on CNBC — Series is 0-0

Tampa Bay Lightning fans – Don’t get spooked by seeing the winged wheel. Our team won seven more games than the Red Wings this season. We’re better.
Tampa Bay Lightning interested parties – Tampa Bay has had some history of success but nothing approaching the traditionally powerful Detroit Red Wings. This year though, the Lightning have the better team.

Detroit Red Wings fans – Mrazek over Howard. In Babcock we trust.
Detroit Red Wings interested parties – The biggest story coming into the playoffs is the coach’s decision to start 23 year-old goalie Petr Mrazek over veteran Jimmy Howard.

St. Louis Blues vs. Minnesota Wild — Game 1, 9:30 p.m. ET on NBC Sports — Series is 0-0

St. Louis Blues fans – Dubnyk has been unbelievable for the Wild… but he used to be on the Oilers, how tough could he be?
St. Louis Blues interested parties – The Blues have had one of the most complete teams for the past five years but have never won the cup. Could this be their year? It starts tonight.

Minnesota Wild fans – The Blues are an intimidating opponent but I think we can get to their goalie. At least it’s not the Blackhawks.
Minnesota Wild interested parties – The Wild are a good team but they can’t match up player for player with the Blues and not come out looking worse, except at goalie, which is the most important position… so they have a shot.

Anaheim Ducks vs. Winnipeg Jets — Game 1, 10:30 p.m. ET on CNBC — Series is 0-0

Anaheim Ducks fans – Games 1 and 2 at home are almost must wins because Winnipeg is going to be CRAZY for 3 and 4.
Anaheim Ducks interested parties – The Ducks are in the unenviable position of playing against the sentimental favorite Winnipeg Jets, who haven’t made the playoffs in 19 years.

Winnipeg Jets fans – Yes! YES! ARRRGHH*#%#@!!!!
Winnipeg Jets interested parties – Yes! YES! ARRRGHH*#%#@!!!!

Montreal Canadiens vs. Ottawa Senators — Rest Day — Series is 1-0

Montreal Canadiens fans – It wasn’t pretty but it doesn’t have to be. Game 2 is on Friday, let’s hope Subban doesn’t get suspended before then.
Montreal Canadiens interested parties – The Canadiens won the first game, so today’s a time to nervously celebrate and relax… a little.

Ottawa Senators fans – Stone. Microfracture. Okay, so we’re not going to win, but let’s kill them all.
Ottawa Senators interested parties – Montreal’s strategy seemed to be to injure the Senators best players and it worked. News just broke that Mark Stone, an important forward has a broken wrist.

Washington Capitals vs. New York Islanders — Rest Day — Series is 0-1

Washington Capitals fans – Oh no, not again. I know it’s just one game, but it feels like another collapse is coming. Ughhhghgh.
Washington Capitals interested parties – The Capitals are notorious for collapsing in the playoffs, so Caps fans quite reasonably, may assume the worst after game one.

New York Islanders fans – Home ice advantage gained. Mission accomplished. Game two is all gravy.
New York Islanders interested parties – After a win in game one, the Islanders now have the advantage.

Nashville Predators vs. Chicago Blackhawks — Rest Day — Series is 0-1

Nashville Predators fans – Get through it. Overtime happens. And when it happens again, it could happen for us.
Nashville Predators interested parties – Game one went into double overtime before the Predators lost. Today would be a good day to get your Predators fan an extra cup of coffee and a smile.

Chicago Blackhawks fans – And THAT’S how the playoffs work!
Chicago Blackhawks interested parties – Winning a game in double-overtime has some luck to it but also experience and determination, both qualities the Blackhawks have in large quantity.

Vancouver Canucks vs. Calgary Flames — Rest Day — Series is 0-1

Vancouver Canucks fans – Slow and steady wins the race. Game one wasn’t what we wanted but the Flames will sputter the longer the series goes.
Vancouver Canucks interested parties – The Canucks lost game one but there’s no reason to panic yet.

Calgary Flames fans – The Canucks can’t hang with us! Keep the Sedins off the scoreboard and we’ll keep winning.
Calgary Flames interested parties – Winning your first playoff game in six years is worth a celebration. Enjoy the moment with the Flames fan in your life!

Stanley Cup Playoff Companion, April 15, 2015

The playoffs are a wonderful time in sports but they can be hard to follow, even for the most die-hard fan of a playoff team. They’re virtually impossible for a non-fan or casual observer! No matter who you are, Dear Sports Fan’s Playoff Companion can help. Sign up to get text updates each day for your favorite team or teams or just for the team or teams you feel you need to know about in order to be able to have a decent conversation with your wife, husband, son, daughter, parent, colleague, or friend.

Montreal Canadiens vs. Ottawa Senators — Game 1, 7 p.m. ET on CBC — Series is 0-0

Montreal Canadiens fans – Time to beat the Senators soundly in game one and show them that what works in the regular season doesn’t always fly in the playoffs.
Montreal Canadiens interested parties – On paper, the Canadiens should be favored over the Ottawa Senators but the Senators have seemed magical on their run to the playoffs in the past two months. Nervous times before the first game.

Ottawa Senators fans – All you need to win in the playoffs is a hot goalie and there’s no one hotter than the Hamburgler. We got this.
Ottawa Senators interested parties – The Senators are an unlikely playoff team, having been way at the bottom of the standings just a couple of months ago. They made the playoffs thanks to an amazing run of wins and now their fans are hungry for more success.

Washington Capitals vs. New York Islanders — Game 1, 7 p.m. ET on USA — Series is 0-0

Washington Capitals fans – Shoot high on Halak, shoot high.
Washington Capitals interested parties – Caps fans may be wary after a string of playoff disappointments but they should feel confident going into this series against the New York Islanders.

New York Islanders fans – Steal one of the first two and then come back to home, sweet home, Nassau Coliseum.
New York Islanders interested parties – When your team starts on the road, like the Islanders do, the goal is always to win one of the first two games.

Nashville Predators vs. Chicago Blackhawks — Game 1, 8:30 p.m. ET on NBC Sports — Series is 0-0

Nashville Predators fans – Score one and hope for Rinne. Game one, we can do this.
Nashville Predators interested parties – Despite finishing with a better record than their opponents, most Predators fans are probably justified in feeling their team is modestly out-gunned by their opponents, the Chicago Blackhawks.

Chicago Blackhawks fans – Of course Kane is back, he’s a hockey player. Let’s go Hawks!
Chicago Blackhawks interested parties – Blackhawks fans are excited to get the playoffs started, especially now that they know one of the team’s best players, Patrick Kane, will be returning from his broken collar-bone to play in tonight’s game.

Vancouver Canucks vs. Calgary Flames — Game 1, 10 p.m. ET on USA — Series is 0-0

Vancouver Canucks fans – Youth plays in the regular season, experience wins in the playoffs.
Vancouver Canucks interested parties – In years past, Canucks fans might have expected to win in the playoffs. Now that the team is a little older, fans are mostly happy just to have made it.

Calgary Flames fans – Argh. If the Flames were playing anyone but the Canucks, it would be easier to worry less about the result and simply enjoy the experience.
Calgary Flames interested parties – The Flames have been one of the most pleasantly surprising teams this year. They’re young and young teams don’t often win in the playoffs but this team could be older than its years.

2015 NFL Championship Weekend Good Gop, Bad Cop Precaps

It’s the NFL Championship round weekend. There’s a counter-intuitive waxing and waning in the football world around this time. This weekend’s games are the second most important games of the year. Win this one and you go to the Super Bowl. They are among the most exciting games of the year. But at the same time, there’s only two of them. After weekends of 11-16 games all fall and then two weekends in a row of four games each in the earlier playoff rounds, two games seems like just a little bit of football. In this way interest wanes as it waxes.

This year, my friend Brendan and I recorded 10-15 minute preview podcasts of each of the games. I’ve linked to those in the game titles below. But, lucky for you, it’s not just Brendan and me blathering on about the NFL. Fresh of a season of previewing all the NFL games, our favorite police duo bring their good cop, bad cop act into the playoffs and preview all the matchups in the National Football League this weekend.

Championship Weekend

Sunday, January 18, at 3:05 p.m. ET, on Fox

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Good cop: The best quarterback in the league, Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers, against the best defense in the league, the Seattle Seahawks?!! Sign me up for that! Seattle had the record for loudest stadium in the world stolen from them earlier this season by the Kansas City fans! My guess is that they take it back on Sunday! They make so much noise that they need to be monitored for seismic consequences! Yikes!!

Bad cop: The story of this game is either going to be ‘quarterback on one leg plays hero and wins against all odds’ or ‘smothering defense key to back-to-back championship run.’ Either one is too cliched and mundane for words. Show me something new, please.

Sunday, January 18, at 6:40 p.m. ET, on CBS

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Good cop: Tom Brady, Tom Brady, Tom Brady! Andrew Luck, Andrew Luck, Andrew Luck! This game is a massive battle between two quarterbacks at the top of their games!! It’s old school vs. new school! Both teams have earned their spot in this championship game! The Patriots came back from being down by 14 points twice against their playoff arch-nemesis, the Baltiomre Ravens! The Colts went into Denver and took down the big, bad, Super Bowl or bust Denver Broncos!

Bad cop: Indianapolis beat Cincinnati without their best player, A.J. Green, and then Denver without their best player, Peyton Manning, being healthy enough to play at even close to his normal level. New England needed to pull out all their trickiest trick plays to beat the Ravens, a team with one of the worst pass defenses around. This game features two average teams masquerading as great teams. Bah.

2015 AFC Championship Preview Indianapolis at New England

Hi everyone,

It’s a very exciting time in the football season for football fans and non-fans alike. There are only three games left! That’s right. This Sunday, the four teams left in the playoffs will play in two semifinal games which are confusingly called the NFC and AFC Championship games, and the winners will go on to play in the Super Bowl on February 1st. To preview this weekend’s action, I asked my friend Brendan to come back on the podcast.

The AFC Championship Game

NFL Football — Sunday, January 18, 2015 — Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, 6:40 p.m. ET on CBS.

  • The one thing television commentators are most likely to say about this game.
  • The one thing we would say if we were television commentators.
  • The player on each team most likely to be the star if their team wins the game and why. For New England, our choices were Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski (but also Legarrette Blount and Darrell Revis because we had trouble choosing.) For Indianapolis, our choices were T.Y Hilton and Vontae Davis.
  • Who we want to win and who we think is going to win
  • And much, much more!

For email subscribers, click here to get the audio.

You can subscribe to all Dear Sports Fan podcasts by following this link.

Music by Jesse Fischer.

 

 

2015 NFL Divisional One Liners

On Mondays during in the fall, the conversation is so dominated by NFL football that the expression “Monday morning quarterback” has entered the vernacular. The phrase is defined by Google as “a person who passes judgment on and criticizes something after the event.” With the popularity of fantasy football, we now have Monday morning quarterbacks talking about football from two different perspectives. We want you to be able to participate in this great tradition, so all fall we’ll be running NFL One Liners on Monday. Use these tiny synopses throughout the day:

Divisional Weekend

Saturday, January 10, at 4:35 p.m. ET, on NBC

Baltimore Ravens 31, at New England Patriots 35

This was the best played game of the weekend. Like predicted pretty much everywhere, the Ravens were completely unintimidated by playing against New England in New England, and started out the game with two quick touchdowns. New England responded nicely though, and for most of the game, the teams went back and forth scoring touchdowns against each other. In the second half, the Patriots broke out a few tricky strategies that worked well against the physical Ravens defense. On one play, quarterback Tom Brady threw the ball backwards to wide receiver Julian Edelman, who, because it had been a backwards pass, was allowed to pass the ball all the way down the field to fellow wide receiver Danny Amendola for a touchdown. The other tricky thing the Patriots did a few times was use four offensive lineman, one fewer than normal, which seemed to totally befuddle the Ravens. In the end, the Patriots scored just a little more than the Ravens and won the game 35-31.
Line: Those tricky Patriots flat out outsmarted the Ravens.

Saturday, January 10, at 8:15 p.m. ET on Fox

Carolina Panthers 17 at Seattle Seahawks 31

I fell asleep on the couch at halftime of this game and probably so did you. We didn’t miss much as the second half went exactly how everyone expected it to go. Seattle, playing at home and close to full strength, was simply a superior football team. This is no surprise. The Panthers only won seven games out of 16 this season and made it to the playoffs only because of a wrinkle in NFL rules. Seattle easily put them in their place… on the couch with us, snoozing away.
Line: I fell asleep. No great loss.

Sunday, January 11, at 1:05 p.m. ET on Fox

Dallas Cowboys 21, at Green Bay Packers 26

The most highly anticipated game of the weekend did not disappoint in the drama department. One of the stories all week leading up to the game was Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers and his partially torn calf muscle. Sure enough, he looked pretty gimpy out there. He normally is a graceful and powerful player when he runs with the ball but in this game, he was limping around. You could tell he had to rely on arm-strength to throw the ball because he couldn’t step into his throws the way he’s used to. Luckily, he’s got more arm strength than a 10 normal people (or 15 bloggers) and he was able to compensate. The biggest moment of the game was a controversial call in the fourth quarter that pretty much ended the game for the Cowboys. The Cowboys had the ball but it was fourth down (last chance!) and they had to move the ball two yards to get another set of downs. Instead of trying to get two yards, quarterback Tony Romo threw the ball way down the field, where wide receiver Dez Bryant leapt high, high in the air, snagged the ball, and reached for the end zone as he fell. It was an incredible play, and the refs on the field called it a complete pass but not a touchdown. After reviewing the tape, the refs reversed themselves and declared the Bryant had actually been unable to hold onto the ball all the way to the ground. The pass didn’t count, Green Bay got the ball, and Dallas never had another chance. This was a true reversal in fortunes from last week when many people thought that Dallas had unfairly been aided by a bad call against their opponents in that game, the Detroit Lions.
Line: Live by the refs, die by the refs.

Sunday, January 11, at 4:40 p.m. ET on CBS

Indianapolis Colts 24, at Denver Broncos 13

This was the only real let-down of the weekend. We billed this game in our preview as the “Peyton Manning bowl.” Manning, the legendary quarterback of the Denver Broncos, was the centerpiece of most people’s interest in the game but once the game actually started, we pretty quickly saw that he was playing terribly. At one point in the second half, the had only completed something like 9 of the 23 or 24 passes he had attempted. That’s not a good average and for him, it’s an unusual disaster. The game went Indianapolis’ way and you never felt like Denver could catch up. It’s a disappointment for Denver Broncos fans and it may be Peyton Manning’s last game. He’s said he was planning on playing next year but he isn’t sure.
Line: If this was Peyton Manning’s last game, it wasn’t a very good way to go out.