Category: Football

How can I still be a sports fan after Greg Hardy?

The sports blog Deadspin published an investigative story recently by Diana Moscovitz detailing the assault case against National Football League (NFL) player Greg Hardy. It’s a thoroughly dispiriting piece which describes and confirms many of our worst assumptions about human nature and the casual ease with which rich and powerful men in our society take advantage of their privileged positions. In case you haven’t read the piece, here’s roughly what we know:

  • Greg Hardy physically assaulted a woman, Nicole Holder, who he had been in an on-again, off-again relationship with for two years
  • Police were called onto the scene by two separate 911 calls, one from a witness, who was concerned about Holder’s well-being, and one from Hardy who claimed that Holder was assaulting him.
  • When the police arrived, they interviewed the people who were there, including Holder, Hardy, the witness who called 911, and other witnesses. They took photos of Holder’s injuries and also those of Hardy’s. These photos are available on Deadpin as part of their article.
  • The police eventually arrested Hardy and in 2014 he was convicted of assault.
  • Hardy later appealed the verdict and, largely because Holder refused to take part in the appeal process, eventually had his conviction overturned. The prosecutors suggested that Hardy had reached an undisclosed civil settlement with Holder in return for her silence in court.
  • Since then, Hardy has been reinstated to the NFL and signed as a free agent by the Dallas Cowboys. He served a four game suspension after his original 10 game sentence was reduced. He’s back on the field and playing well.

As a sports fan and as someone who spends a lot of time writing about sports for an audience of mostly non-sports fans, in addition to being totally disgusted by reading Deadspin’s article today, I found myself automatically thinking about what a non-sports fan might think about the article. The single biggest question that I imagined non-sports fans asking was, “how can you continue to watch football after reading a story like that?” My answer, and I assure you, I am not being glib at all about this, is that I am proud of sports today.

It’s good that sports are covered so vociferously by the sports media that stories like this are published. Players, coaches, and owners should be well aware of the fact by now that they can’t do something as awful as this and get away with it for long without it becoming known. Not every industry can say this. Take the restaurant industry, for example, which is just beginning to struggle with this issue in the workplace. What part of American life is more closely scrutinized than sports? Maybe politics or the music/movie/celebrity industry can rival sports, but most cannot. The close coverage of sports benefits society as a whole by surfacing a lot of issues which I believe are present in every walk of life.

  • Money and celebrity equate to great social power which can warp the way society treats a person, even to the extent of changing how police and the court system handle an illegal act.
  • Many domestic assault victims are vulnerable to private and public pressure that work against the punishment of their assaulter.
  • Many people are quick to disbelieve or blame a domestic assault victim and equally quick to excuse or forgive the assaulter. This is especially true in cases where the legal system has failed in convicting the assaulter, or even, as in this case, convicted him but lost on appeal.
  • The extent to which someone is forgiven or excused from having committed assault is affected by their real or perceived value to some element of society.

We need to find ways to break these patterns. How can we strengthen our ethical mores so that we don’t compromise our ethics, even for people who we venerate? How can we particularly empower our legal system to be invulnerable to the appeal of the rich and powerful? How can we ease or reverse the response to domestic assault victims so that we support their recovery and the punishment of their assaulters? How can we convince or force companies to hold employees to a higher standard than that of a flawed legal system without creating modern Red Scares or witch hunts? How can we apply forgiveness without denial and rehabilitate without letting people get away with crimes? How can we do this evenly across society?

We as a society need to answer all these questions together and, while I doubt that sports as a subculture is currently equipped to lead that movement, I am grateful to sports journalists who are at least bringing these problems to the surface persistently and eloquently.

What does down by contact mean in football?

Dear Sports Fan,

What does down by contact mean in football? I hear people talking about it when a player fumbles the ball. Does it have something to do with fumbling?

Thanks,
Bruce

Dear Bruce,

There are two ways for an NFL football player who has established control of the ball to be ruled down by contact. Either contact with an opposing player forces a part of his body other than his hands or feet to touch the ground or a player from the opposing team touches him while a part of his body other than his hands or feet are touching the ground (even if it wasn’t contact with that player that forced him to the ground.) In other words, a ball carrier is down by contact if he’s touched while on the ground or if contact with an opposing player forces him to the ground. In college football, the rules are different, but in the NFL, when these conditions have been met, that play is over and anything that happens afterwards, good or bad for either team, should not count. A player cannot fumble the ball once he is down by contact nor can he score a touchdown or earn a first down. Generally, as you pointed out in your question, if you hear people talk about whether a player is down by contact, it’s because one of those three things may have happened. In this post, we’ll run through a scenario for a fumble and for a touchdown (a first down scenario is identical to a touchdown one) as a means of explaining the down by contact rule.

Is a player down by contact or has he fumbled?

Imagine a wide receiver running down the field. The quarterback delivers a perfect back shoulder pass which the receiver catches easily. He secures the ball, cuts to the middle of the field, and fakes out one defender before being tackled by another. As he’s falling forward, the ball squirts loose and rolls around on the ground for a while before the defender picks it up. The defender runs the ball a few yards up the field before stepping out-of-bounds. He and his teammates are celebrating because they feel they’ve created a turnover and their offense should get the ball. The wide receiver is indignantly yelling at the ref that his knee was down before he lost control of the football. Not to worry, in the NFL all potential turnovers are subject to automatic video replay.

The question for this review is whether the wide receiver should be ruled down by contact or whether he fumbled the ball. The official looking at the video will go through a series of questions about the player in question. First, did he establish control of the ball? Yes, he caught it and then ran a bit with the ball, clearly establishing control. Second, was he forced to the ground by a player on the defensive team? Yes, a defender tackled him. Finally, the key question – was he in possession of the ball when a part of his body other than his hands or feet, in this case, his knee, first touched the ground thanks to the action of a defender? If the answer to that question is yes, then the player did not fumble the ball, he simply dropped it after the play was over — once he was down by contact.

Has a player scored a touchdown or was he down by contact?

In this scenario, a running back takes a handoff from the five yard line. He swings out wide, near the edge of the field, and thanks to some great blocking or trickery by his team, he has a clear path to the end zone. Alas, he trips on an errant tuft of grass. Not to worry, this isn’t college football, where the play is over as soon as any part of a ball carrier’s body other than his hands or feet touch the ground. This is the NFL where the down by contact rule tells us that a player with the ball must be on the ground AND touched by an opponent before the play is over. So, the running back starts wriggling his way toward the goal line. All he has to do is get the tip of the ball to the line to score. As he’s wriggling and squiggling and reaching out to score, a defender runs over and dives at him, touching his back with outstretched arms. The refs call it a touchdown but, since all scoring plays are automatically reviewed, and the ref runs to the video monitor to take a second look.

In this scenario, there’s no question about the ball carrier having possession of the ball. The running back takes it from the quarterback and holds onto it for the entire play. There’s also no question about when the player’s knees, butt, elbows, etc. touch the ground. He falls on his own and then maintains contact with the ground for the rest of the play, crawling along. The only question is when the ball carrier was first touched by an opposing player, which would make him down by contact and end the play. Did the touch happen before or after the ball reached the goal line? After looking at the video and freezing it the moment the ball carrier was touched by a defender, the ref concludes that the ball had not reached the goal line yet. No touchdown is awarded but the offense gets to start the next play with the ball six inches from the goal line, the distance it was when the ball carrier was touched and therefore down by contact.

—

Hopefully these two scenarios have helped to demystify the down by contact rule in the NFL. Show off to your friends the next time the issue comes up in a game you’re watching!

Thanks for reading,
Ezra Fischer

One line to fool them all – 11.2.15

Sports talk is frequently used as a common language but it’s far from universal. If you’re someone who doesn’t follow or even understand sports, you can find yourself at a disadvantage in common small-talk situations like in an elevator, waiting for a bus, sitting at a bar, or around the proverbial water cooler at work. Even if you are a sports fan, it’s impossible to watch everything and know everything. To help in these situations, we provide lines to use when engaged in a conversation about all of the high profile sporting events of the day, plus explanations of what they mean.

NFL Football

Cincinnati Bengals 16 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 10

Line: Bad Andy reared his head but the Bengals still won.

What it means: Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton’s career has been full of periods when he plays extremely well, but they’ve never been free of times when he’s played equally badly. Because he’s never had any significant success in the playoffs, he hasn’t really earned any sympathy from fans, so these periods are called Bad Andy times. He played poorly in this game but the Bengals were still good enough to win and stay undefeated.

Green Bay Packers 10, vs. Denver Broncos 29

Line: Maybe the reports of Peyton Manning’s demise were greatly exaggerated.

What it means: The Denver Broncos defense slowed down the Green Bay Packers offense, specifically their quarterback Aaron Rodgers, in a way that’s really never happened before. The biggest news of the game though, might have been the play of Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, who looked, at least for a night, as good as he’s looked in past years. At 39, people have reacted to his poor play so far this season by predicting his football demise, but tonight gave Broncos fans hope.

San Francisco 49ers 6 vs. St. Louis Rams 27

Line: Don’t look now, but I think the Rams are good. Gurley is the real deal.

What it means: The Rams are not a popular team, they’re not on national television often, and they haven’t been good for a long time, but thanks to the excellent play of rookie running back Todd Gurley, they’ve won three of their last four games.

Tennessee Titans 6 vs. Houston Texans 20

Line: The Texans are one game away from first place and one game away from firing their coach.

What it means: The division that the Texans and Titans are in, the AFC South, is so bad across the board, that it’s possible for a team like the Texans to be simultaneously so disappointing that their coach is at risk of being fired AND almost in first place of the division. Football can be a weird sport with small sample sizes and lots of randomness.

New York Giants 49 vs. New Orleans Saints 52

Line: This looked more like a video game than reality.

What it means: Games with this much scoring are very unusual in real football, but thanks to the “solveablilty” of video games, much more common there. Many football fans are or have also been big fans of football video games at some point in their lives. So this game’s bizarre scoring probably felt familiar, if only from virtual reality.

Minnesota Vikings 23 vs. Chicago Bears 20

Line: Hmmmm… the Vikings keep winning, but not in a way that inspires very much confidence. Plus, look at who they’ve beaten.

What it means: Beating the now 2-5 Chicago Bears is something that should be expected of good teams in the NFL, not the product of a dramatic, late-game win, like the Vikings needed today. The Vikings have a very respectable 5-2 record, but if you look more closely at it, the teams they’ve beaten (Bears, Lions twice, Chiefs, Chargers) are a combined 8-23. That’s doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the Vikings’ ability to win against good teams. Sorry Vikings fans!

New York Jets 20, vs. Oakland Raiders 34

Line: Eh, I wouldn’t worry about the Jets too much. Hard to get up for the Raiders the week after the Patriots.

What it means: Last weekend, the Jets lost a close and emotional game against their biggest rivals, the New England Patriots. It’s natural, even for a professional sports team, to have a let-down in the following week. Add to that, a trip to the West Coast to play the historically bad but currently sneaky good Oakland Raiders, and it’s no wonder that they came out flat and lost. The bigger concern is the loss of starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, possibly for the season, with a hand injury.

Seattle Seahawks 13, vs. Dallas Cowboys 12

Line: Can we all agree not to talk about this game again?

What it means: This game was televised nationally and really shouldn’t have been watched by anyone other than die-hard fans of the two teams. A bad game was further marred by the breath-stealing sight of a player on the Seahawks being knocked out on the field and stretchered off. Luckily, he is not paralyzed.

Detroit Lions 10, vs. Kansas City Chiefs 45

Line: Not sure the fire everyone the week before the London game gambit is going to work for Jim Caldwell after this showing.

What it means: The London game, which is always followed by a bye week, has become an opportune moment for teams to fire their coaches. As if he knew that might be a possibility and wanted to cut it off at the pass, the Lions head coach fired most of his offensive staff the week before this game. After losing so badly to the Chiefs, this almost blatant attempt to buy himself some time, may not work. Head Coach Jim Caldwell might get fired anyway.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23, vs. Atlanta Falcons 20

Line: The Atlanta Falcons? More like the Atlanta Frauds.

What it means: Okay, this is a little bit of a snotty thing to say, but that doesn’t mean it’s not true. The Falcons got off to a great start this year, winning five games in a row. People thought they were a great team. Then they lost to the Saints, won a close game over the lowly Titans, and now lost to the equally lowly Buccaneers. From the evidence of those last three games, it looks a lot more like the Falcons are an average team that got lucky to start the year than a great team going through a rough patch.

San Diego Chargers 26, vs. Baltimore Ravens 29

Line: I can’t decide if that’s a fitting end for Steve Smith or a totally out of character one. Either way, it’s terrible.

What it means: Hall of fame to be wide receiver, Steve Smith, has been a fan favorite for many years. He had announced at the start of this season that it would be his last, but he didn’t expect it to end so soon. He tore his Achilles tendon during today’s game and will miss the rest of the season. Unless he reconsiders, this was the last we’ll see of him on a football field. What a shame!

Arizona Cardinals 34, vs. Cleveland Browns 20

Line: If the game had ended at halftime, I would have had to seriously rethink what I thought I knew about football. Phew.

What it means: People, myself included, assumed that the plot of this game was as simple as, “good team (Arizona) plays bad team (Cleveland).” What a surprise it was, then, to see the Browns leading the Cardinals 20-10 at halftime. The Cardinals scored 24 points in the second half and held the Browns scoreless, proving us right, albeit in a very tardy way.

What should I watch during Week 8 of the 2015 NFL season?

Every week, we rank the NFL games based on a number of factors to come up with a proprietary, totally un-trademarked Watchability Rating and publish them on our NFL forecast page. This post takes the quantitative and marries it to my qualitative thoughts about each game. To help you figure out what games you get in your area, check out 506 Sports NFL. If you need help figuring out how to make sense out of what you see there, use my explanation of how to use 506 Sports NFL here.

Big Screen

5.09 – Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. ET on CBS

For decades, the Steelers have ruled their division with an iron steel fist. That’s meant that no matter how good the Bengals have gotten, they’ve always had to deal with the Steelers being a little bit better — a little bit more successful. This year, the Bengals are undefeated and the Steelers, thanks in part to an injury to starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, are only 4-3. Roethlisberger is back for this game, so the Steelers will be at full strength for their attempt to knock the Bengals off their pedestal.

5.03 – Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos, 8:30 p.m. ET on NBC

Sometimes fortune smiles on the people who scheduled all the NFL games months ago. They couldn’t have known, when they put these two teams in a prime-time, nationally televised game, that they’d both be undefeated entering the game. It’s a rare treat to have a matchup of two undefeated teams as late as the eighth week of the season. Both teams have overcome challenges to get this far without losing. The Denver Broncos have been winning despite once legendary quarterback Peyton Manning’s predictable but still shocking poor play. At 39, it looks like age and injury have finally caught up with him. Luckily, the team’s defense has been good enough to cover for him, so far. On the Green Bay side, quarterback Aaron Rodgers is still in the prime of his career, but he’s been playing all year without his favorite target, wide receiver Jordy Nelson, who is out for the season with a knee injury.

4.29 – San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams, 1 p.m. ET on Fox

There’s a big jump between the interest of the top two games, both over 5 on our watchability scale, and the next group which starts with this game. The first two games basically don’t have any flaws. This one has a big flaw in the form of the 49ers. The 49ers aren’t completely collapsing this year, but they are stumbling around like a drunk person who seems about to fall at any moment. What lifts this game is the opportunity for the Rams to continue their push toward the playoffs. It’s almost too early to start talking about playoffs, but the Rams look like a team with a shot of making it as a wild card. If they don’t want that image to become a mirage, like it has in so many recent years for the Rams, they need to win the games they should win, like this one.

4.29 – Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans, 1 p.m. ET on CBS

There’s a severe power outage in this game. The Titans are 1-5 on the year. The Texans 2-5. But believe it or not, if the Texans win this game and the Indianapolis Colts lose theirs, they would be in a tie for the division lead. The AFC South division is so bad this year, that the Titans are probably not out of it either. Setting that aside, there are very few rational reasons to watch this game. It’s probably a signal that I should raise the impact of “combined power” on the watchability rating and lower the impact of the “in division” and “rivalry” factors.

4.29 – New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m. ET on Fox

Both of these teams started the year out horribly, the Giants with two losses and the Saints with three. Both have righted the ship to some extent. The Giants are 4-3 and in first place in their division. The Saints are coming off two straight wins against the Falcons and Colts. Fans of both teams are starting to believe again. One set of fans will be sorely disappointed after this game. As a tiny extra added piece of local interest, Giants quarterback Eli Manning’s father was the starting quarterback of the Saints while Eli was a child.

4.05 – Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET on Fox

 

This game is like a miniature version of the Bengals vs. Steelers game from above. The Bears and Vikings are long-time divisional opponents and rivals. The Bears usually have the upper hand but the Vikings have the better record this year. The Vikings should win this game, but it’s possible that the Bears have enough muscle memory left from having dominated the Vikings for so long, that they’ll be able to keep this game close and maybe even win it.

Medium Screen

3.99 – Indianapolis Colts vs. Carolina Panthers, Monday, November 2, 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

It’s hard to believe this game didn’t make it to a Big Screen rating. Blame the poor play of the Colts so far this year for missing that hundredth of a rating point. Football fans, fantasy players especially, keep waiting for Colts quarterback Andrew Luck to turn things around and start playing up to his potential this year. At a certain point though, it may be time to admit that the players around him are simply not good enough to let him shine. Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has no such problem. His mostly unheralded teammates have all been playing above their expected level this year — a big part of why the team is undefeated.

3.85 – New York Jets vs. Oakland Raiders, 4 p.m. ET on CBS

I’m actually surprised this game did not get a higher ranking. I suspect that it will outperform it’s ranking. Certainly in the late-afternoon time slot, when there are so many fewer options, it’s worthy of consideration. The Jets were 4-12 last year, the Raiders, 3-13 but after only six games so far this year, both teams have already equalled their wins totals from last year. The Jets are 4-2 and the Raiders are 3-3. I’m interested to see how the Raiders young, talented offense plays against the Jets veteran and loaded defense.

3.47 – Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox

Alas, virtually the whole football-watching country will be watching this game in the late afternoon. It’s not without its attractions, but most of them have to do with the suspense generated by a team wildly disappointing its fans.

3.38 – Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 9:30 a.m. ET on Fox

This is the last London game of the season and, like most of the others, it features two under .500 teams. It’s hard to say which team has been more disappointing this year, the Chiefs, who were 11-5 two years ago or the Lions who were 11-5 last year. I guess the Lions. Either way, this is not a game worth waking up early for.

3.30 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. ET on Fox

It’s actually somewhat hysterical that a divisional game involving one team (the Falcons) with only a single loss on the year could be so low in our rankings. It’s a measure of how little people believe in the Falcons as an actually good team, as opposed to a decent team with a good record, and how little the general public cares about the Buccaneers.

3.12 – San Diego Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m. ET on CBS

Looking at the landscape of the NFL over the past decade, it’s almost incomprehensible that a game between these two teams could be the second worst game of the day. The Chargers and Ravens have both been perennial championship contenders but they now find themselves scrambling around just to win a game. It’s a sad fall from grace for both franchises. At least the Ravens will still be in Baltimore next year. The Chargers may very well be in Los Angeles.

3.05 – Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m. ET on Fox

It’s not impossible to make a case for watching this game — this week’s slate of games is remarkably strong, without a single game in the small or no screen categories — but it just doesn’t match up to the competition. The Cardinals are very good, the Browns are not.

One line to fool them all – 10.26.15

Sports talk is frequently used as a common language but it’s far from universal. If you’re someone who doesn’t follow or even understand sports, you can find yourself at a disadvantage in common small-talk situations like in an elevator, waiting for a bus, sitting at a bar, or around the proverbial water cooler at work. Even if you are a sports fan, it’s impossible to watch everything and know everything. To help in these situations, we provide lines to use when engaged in a conversation about all of the high profile sporting events of the day, plus explanations of what they mean.

NFL Football

Sunday, October 25, 2015 9:30 a.m. ET

Buffalo Bills 31 at Jacksonville Jaguars 34

Line: You can dismiss the teams if you want, but London got a heck of a game.

What it means: Most NFL teams don’t want to travel to London and it seems like the more powerful ones are able to prevent the league from sending them. As a result, the London games tend to be between teams, like the Bills and Jaguars, who have not been good for many years. That’s led many fans to dismiss the London games as boring or even unwatchable. Not true for this close game.

Sunday, October 25, 2015 1 p.m. ET

Cleveland Browns 6 at St. Louis Rams 24

Line: I can’t think of anything to say about this game. No really. I guess the Rams might be good?

What it means: I can’t think of anything to say about this game. No really. I guess the Rams might be good?

Minnesota Vikings 28 at Detroit Lions 19

Line: It’s hard to believe that this was the Vikings’ first division win on the road in three years. They seem downright respectable this season — like a strong wildcard contender.

What it means: The Vikings have been bad for several seasons. So bad that they’ve lost all their divisional road games (three per year) for the last three years. This week, they broke that streak by beating the Lions. It may seem like a meaningless statistic, but in this case, it’s also symbolic of real progress. The Lions are playing like a playoff team.

Houston Texans 26 at Miami Dolphins 44

Line: It’s amazing how much the Dolphins must have hated their old coach.

What it means: Since the Dolphins fired their coach three weeks ago, they’ve won both of their games in very convincing fashion. Since it’s difficult for a new coach to make tactical changes in such a short time, it’s safe to assume that the Dolphins simply didn’t like their old coach and weren’t playing as hard for him as they are now for the new coach.

New Orleans Saints 27 at Indianapolis Colts 21

Line: This year’s AFC South is last year’s NFC South — 7-9 might win the division.

What it means: Last year, the NFC South division, which the Saints are in, was so poor across the board, that the Carolina Panthers won it and qualified for the playoffs with a 7-8-1 record. This year, the Colts, who play in the AFC South division, may find themselves in a similar position. After seven games, the Colts are 3-4 and still better than the other three teams in their division.

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 at Kansas City Chiefs 23

Line: Big Ben will be back soon.

What it means: The Steelers quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, is known as Big Ben. He hurt his knee during the third game of the season. Since then, they’ve been trying their best to stay afloat without him. They’ve actually done pretty well — winning two games and losing two — but their fans will be very glad to get their starting quarterback back, probably next week.

New York Jets 23 at New England Patriots 30

Line: Dog bites man, Patriots beat Jets.

What it means: There’s a parable in the news industry that “dog bites man” isn’t news but “man bites dog” is. Well, in football terms, the Patriots beating the Jets isn’t news, but the Jets beating the Patriots would be. No news was made in this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 at Washington Redskins 31

Line: Kirk Cousins led a last minute drive to win the game and save Washington D.C. from another week of existential football crisis.

What it means: Washington is a tortured sports city and their sports talk would have been profoundly depressing this week if it weren’t for a last minute touchdown drive orchestrated by quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Atlanta Falcons 10 at Tennessee Titans 7

Line: This was either an ugly game that a really good team won or a sign that the Falcons aren’t actually a very good team.

What it means: There’s a sports truism that the sign of a good team is that they can win games even when they play badly. The Falcons may have done that today… then again, they may also have just struggled to beat a mediocre team because they themselves are not that good.

Sunday, October 25, 2015 4:05 or 4:25 p.m. ET

Oakland Raiders 37 at San Diego Chargers 29

Line: The future belongs to the Raiders.

What it means: The Raiders have been stuck behind the other three teams in their division, the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, and Chargers for years. Although they still probably won’t catch the Broncos, who are undefeated this year, but their stock of young, talented players suggests that they could surpass all three teams in the next couple years.

Dallas Cowboys 20 at New York Giants 27

Line: By the time Dez and Tony get back, it may be too late for the Cowboys.

What it means: The Cowboys lost their two best offensive players, wide receiver Dez Bryant and quarterback Tony Romo, at the start of the season to long-term injuries. They’re both expected back this year, but it may be too little, too late for the Cowboys to have a shot at making the playoffs. They’ve now lost four games straight without these two players.

Sunday, October 25, 2015 8:30 p.m. ET

Philadelphia Eagles 16 at Carolina Panthers 27

Line: In a weird way, this game was worse for the New Orleans Saints than it was for the Eagles.

What it means: Despite the Eagles loss and general malaise, because of the weakness of their division, at 3-4, they’re still only one game back from the division lead. The New Orleans Saints, who won yesterday and who are also 3-4 are stuck in a division with the Panthers, who moved to 6-0 by beating the Eagles, and the Atlanta Falcons, who are 6-1. It’s going to be far harder for the Saints to maneuver themselves back into the playoff hunt than it will be for the Eagles.

Pitch That Game: NFL Week 7, 2015

Hello everyone and welcome to America’s favorite game show that… has never actually happened before and no one has heard of it… it’s Pitch That Game!

Here’s how it works. As your host, I have one sentence to pitch a sporting event. If, after my pitch, you’re interested in watching, I get a point! That’s it! Usually I do this in podcast format, but I’ve got a cold this week and no one wants to listen to me cough and sniffle over a microphone, least of all me. So, the pitches will be in written form only this week.

In this episode, I pitch you, the reader, all of the NFL games this weekend, on Sunday October 25 and Monday October 26. If you want to know which games will be available on your TV this weekend, check out 506 Sports NFL. If you need help figuring out how to make sense out of what you see there, use my explanation of how to use 506 Sports NFL here.

Enjoy the show!

Sunday, October 25, 2015 9:30 a.m. ET

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

All of the NFL games in London are part of an experiment to see how global American Football’s reach is. This game takes that experiment one step further in a particularly interesting way: it will be broadcast only online. It’s the first NFL game in memory that won’t be available on television, it’s only streaming on Yahoo!. This means that it will be completely free to viewers and totally global. Depending on the response, we might be seeing the first step toward a television-free or at least blended future of entertainment.

Sunday, October 25, 2015 1 p.m. ET

Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams

This is my choice of the week for being the game between two kind of crummy teams that turns into the most exciting, high scoring, close game of the week. The Browns have had surprising success on offense this year, thanks to much-traveled quarterback Josh McCown and a slew of underrated receiving weapons. The Rams took a big gamble during the offseason by trading quarterbacks with the Philadelphia Eagles and the jury is still out on new quarterback Nick Foles. He’s looked good at times and bad at times but so far, he’s always been on the field, competing, which they could not say for their last quarterback.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

The Lions finally won their first game of the season last week and they did it by embracing who they really are this season: a somewhat crummy team with one absurdly prolific wide receiver. Quarterback Matthew Stafford stopped trying to play in a controlled way and just started chucking the ball to Calvin Johnson and it worked. We’ll see if they stick with this new-found devil-may-care attitude this week. The Vikings, on the other hand, play exactly the way the Lions thought they should play. They run the ball and make safe, careful throws. Unlike the Lions though, it’s working for the Vikings. They’re 3-2 and looking to pick up another unremarkable but effective win.

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins came into the season with high expectations, based largely on the perceived strength of their defense, started the season poorly, got to their bye week with a losing record, and then fired their coach. In their first game under new head coach Dan Campbell, they looked better by several degrees of magnitude and won. The Texans came into the season with high expectations, based largely on the perceived strength of their defense, and started the season poorly. Their bye week is the week after this one, and given what just happened in Miami, you’ve got to wonder if Houston’s coach feels like he’s playing for his job in this game.

New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts

The Saints and Colts have both been like high performance cars with bad spark plugs this season. Both teams have great quarterbacks who are used to being able to score, almost at will, but who have struggled this year. Both Drew Brees for the Saints and Andrew Luck for the Colts have also been dealing with shoulder injuries. Both teams play their home games in domes on artificial turf. What is going on here?!? The parallels are uncanny. Here’s one big difference – both teams are coming off games last week against their team’s arch-rivals but the Saints won their rivalry game against the Atlanta Falcons while the Colts lost theirs against the New England Patriots.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

The Steelers will be playing with their third string quarterback because of injuries to their first and second. The Chiefs will be playing with their first string quarterback, but fans are close to the end of the rope with him. Quarterback Alex Smith has long been thought of as someone who succeeds despite lacking the arm-strength that most NFL quarterbacks have. That deficiency seems to have gotten to his head. These days, he’s not even attempting any long throws. This fact has been seized on by opposing defenses who now focus on taking away the only thing they know Smith will do. It’s a bad situation and one that doesn’t seem like it’s going to get better any time soon.

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Last week’s Patriots game was the ultimate game in terms of emotional and off-the-field plot-lines. This week’s game may be even more interesting, but all the intrigue is on the field. The Jets have one of the league’s best defenses, thanks in part to cornerback Darelle Revis who is usually able to take the opposing team’s wide receiver completely out of the game by himself. The Patriots best wide receiver is Julian Edelman, but their best pass-catcher is tight end Rob Gronkowski. If we assume Revis will nullify Edelman, than it will be up to Gronkowski to carry the Patriots to a victory and up to the Jets to figure out how to stop him. It’s an intriguing game of cat and mouse and cheese and elephant.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins

It’s the rapist vs. the racists. Let’s move on to the next game.

Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans

The Falcons got off to a hot start this year with five wins in their first five games. A loss last week to the New Orleans Saints, a divisional rival, took just a single petal off the rose. A loss to the titans this week and the entire bloom will be off. A suspicious or pessimistic Falcons fan will have spent the past week noticing that all their team’s wins came against NFC East teams, who seem generally bad this year, and the Houston Texans, who are definitely bad this year. The Titans are no great shakes, so Falcons fans shouldn’t have too much to worry about, but the bulk of them will be worrying nonetheless.

Sunday, October 25, 2015 4:05 or 4:25 p.m. ET

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers

The Raiders and Chargers are two of the three teams rumored to be moving to Los Angeles next season. If that’s true, this intrastate rivalry will deepen to new subterraneous levels of interest. As it is, they provide an interesting contrast. The Raiders are an up-and-coming team trying to take the next step and the Chargers are an established but slightly over-the-hill team trying desperately to hold on for another season of success. They’re like two ships passing in the night except they have to stop and play football against each other.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

If you took away any concern about the quality of the teams, this matchup would be consistently the number one draw in the league. The Cowboys are the most loved and most hated franchise and the Giants are their biggest rival and not far behind in terms of notoriety. The mammoth character of this game in principle helps boost it up even during years like this one, when the two teams aren’t actually all that good at playing football.

Sunday, October 25, 2015 8:30 p.m. ET

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers

The Panthers defend their undefeated record this year against one of the most confusing teams in the league. When the Eagles offense is clicking, they look unstoppable. Why they can only get it to click once every other game for about a quarter is the primary question their fans are struggling with. You get the feeling that if it could click steadily for a whole game, it might jumpstart the team and launch them into Super Bowl contention. The Panthers defense has been rock solid this year, propelling their team to five straight victories despite the team’s offense being as under-the-radar as any team’s in this era of easy name recognition. Seriously – ask a football fan to name four players on the Panthers defense and see if they can do it.

Monday, October 26, 2015 8:30 p.m. ET

Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals

Uh oh. The Cardinals have one of the league’s best passing offenses and the Ravens have one of the league’s worst passing defenses. This could be a catastrophe of colossal proportions. It could be bird on bird violence unlike any we’ve seen before. It’s truly difficult to imagine a tactical path that would allow Baltimore to slow Arizona’s offense down enough to win.

 

How can I get better at making trades in fantasy football?

Dear Sports Fan,

I’ve been playing fantasy football for a few years now and I think I’m pretty good at it. One thing I can’t do though is get people to trade with me. Either they don’t want to trade or what they’re offering doesn’t seem like anything I would want to do. How can I get better at making trades in fantasy football?

Thanks,
Rosalie

Dear Rosalie,

There’s an art to trading in fantasy football. In this post, I’ll describe some of the basic principles and tactics I use to trade when I play fantasy football.

Both sides should “win” the trade

The driving principle of being a good trading partner is to want the person you’re trading with to succeed. This may seem silly in a zero sum game like fantasy football — after all, if your trading partner succeeds, won’t they threaten your team — but it’s actually the most important part of making a trade. A good trade should benefit both teams and you should want it to be that way. There are a few reasons why this is important. First, fantasy football is a long game. It’s played over the course of 13-17 weeks and in many leagues, over years or even decades. Most leagues have 10 or 12 teams, each run by a friend or colleague of yours. You want to make trades that are good for your trading partners so that they want to deal with you in the future. Even if you could trick someone into making an incredibly lopsided trade, you probably shouldn’t. They’ll never trade with you again and the rest of your league-mates will notice too.

Don’t just target the weak. The overflowing team is ripe for the picking too!

Conventional wisdom suggests that a team at the top of the standings will be difficult to trade with. That’s not always the case. Often, teams at the top have been successful because of surprisingly good performances from unexpected places. If a team’s fifth running back turned out to be one of the best in the league, this may mean that they find themselves with more good running backs than they are able to make use of on a week-to-week basis. If you can offer a team overflowing with high performing players in one position a slight improvement in another position, they might be willing to trade one of their many successes to you. One of the most agonizing parts of fantasy football is making start/sit decisions each week. Fantasy owners who have a surfeit of talented players at one position may want to trade a player away just so they don’t have to drive themselves crazy each weekend trying to guess who is going to be better between two or more good options. Lastly, success is not an antidote to anxiety in fantasy football. Some owners will interpret their own success as a harbinger of doom and want to “sell high” on high performing players because they are scared of a fall from grace.

Identify unlucky players

Touchdowns are worth much more than yards in most fantasy football leagues. The most standard scoring system makes touchdowns worth 6 times more than ten yard gained for running backs, receivers, and tight ends, and 15 times more for quarterbacks. Fantasy points, the clearest and most meaningful measure of a player’s worth to a fantasy team, are therefore highly dependent on touchdowns. In reality though, touchdowns are much more random than yards. The average NFL team scored between two and three touchdowns a game. That’s a much smaller sample size, even over the course of several games, than the 50 or so yard-gaining plays that happen each game. Although there are some players whose style or abilities make them less likely to score touchdowns than others, there are more out there whose lack of touchdowns are simply bad luck. Find these players by sorting a list of players by yards gained as opposed to fantasy points and target them for a trade. Their owner may be fed up with their inability to score touchdowns and therefore generate fantasy points.

Help people heal their bye week blues

Every NFL team takes a single week off during the NFL season. On most weeks during the middle of the season, four teams will not be playing. Less common is the two-team or six-team bye weeks, but they do happen too. Most of the time, fantasy teams will have enough players on their bench to fill a starting lineup without any problem. There’s usually one team per week whose players happen to have byes that line up in an unfortunate way for that owner. Maybe they have five wide receivers on their roster but four of them have Week Seven bye weeks. They won’t want to drop the players, because they might not be able to get them back, but they also won’t want to go a week without enough players in that position to field a starting lineup. If you can offer roster flexibility in a trade, they may be willing to make a trade that even they think would otherwise be slightly (just slightly, don’t get crazy) slanted in your favor.

Deep? Get shallow. Shallow? Get deep.

There’s a kind of platonic ideal for fantasy football teams: a few star players, very good players at every other position in the starting lineup, lower-performing players with high potential on the bench. In reality, few teams match that ideal exactly. Most teams are either deeper, meaning they have more good players but perhaps not any true stars, or shallower, meaning they have a few stars but then there’s a steep drop-off in terms of talent on the rest of their roster. Owners generally want to shift their teams toward the ideal. If you have a shallow team, find a deep team and see if you can construct a trade to help both of your teams get closer to the ideal. In this example, that would mean trading one of your stars for two or three very good players. These types of two or three for one trades are a common gambit in fantasy football. The trick is to suggest them strategically. A shallow team won’t want to trade you two or three players for another star. A deep team won’t trade you their star player for two or three of your very good players. Find a team whose shape you can improve.

Work at it

My last suggestion is that you do your due diligence every week. Open up each team’s page once a week and look to see what their situation is. Examine their teams for the trade openings we’ve described here. Are they too deep? Too shallow? Are they suffering with the bye week blues? Are they overwhelmingly strong at one position, perhaps to their own detriment? Do they have agonizing start/sit decisions each week? When you’re done doing that, run through a sorted list of each position by fantasy points AND yards gained. Look for unlucky players who you think are likely to play better in the coming weeks. See who their owners are and if there’s potential to make a trade. Send a few offers out every week. You’ll be surprised at what your fellow fantasy players are interested in doing. Don’t send anything patently unfair though – lopsided offers give you a bad reputation and depress counter-offers and negotiation.

Thanks for reading,
Ezra Fischer

What is a back shoulder pass in football?

Dear Sports Fan,

What is a back shoulder pass in football? Whose shoulder does the phrase refer to?

Thanks,
Darrell

Dear Darrell,

A back shoulder pass in football is a type of throw where the quarterback aims the ball to intersect with the path of a receiver just behind him as he runs down the field. It is an offensive tactic that takes advantage of a fundamental defensive rule by breaking a fundamental offensive rule.

The second thing you’re taught when you’re taught to pass a football (the first is: look where you want the ball to go, not at the ball! Thanks Dad…) is to lead the person catching the ball. If the receiver is running from your left to your right, you should throw the ball to a spot farther right. This way, assuming the receiver keeps running at a constant speed, by the time the ball gets to them, it will be right in front of their path, in a spot that’s easy for them to catch while they continue running.

The first thing you’re taught when you’re taught to play defense in football is to keep your body between the player you’re covering and your end zone. That way, even if they catch the ball, you should be able to tackle them (or two-hand touch them or grab their flag) before they can run into the end zone and score a touchdown.

These two fundamental principles are not in conflict when a player runs horizontally on the field to catch a pass from their quarterback or if they run down the field, turn around, and come back toward the quarterback. In those scenarios, the quarterback’s attempt to lead their receiver will not risk putting the ball closer to where the defender is (between the receiver and the end zone) than where the receiver is. But, when a receiver runs down the field, away from their quarterback, then leading him inevitably leaves the ball on the side of the receiver where the defender ought to be. Sometimes, a wide receiver is fast enough to negate this issue by running past their defender. This puts them between a well lead pass and the defender and often results in a long gain or touchdown. Most of the time though, the defender is savvy, fast, and physical enough to prevent this approach. So, a clever team will deploy the back shoulder pass. Here’s how it works:

As a receiver runs down the field, with their defender between them and the end zone, the quarterback leads them but not as much as they normally would. Instead of aiming to have the ball land right in front of the receiver, the quarterback aims just behind where the receiver will be when the ball reaches them. If the receiver did nothing to adjust to the flight of the ball, it would hit him in the butt or land just behind his feet. That’s not what happens — instead, the receiver knows what’s about to happen, so she turns her upper body as the ball flies toward her. Now facing sideways, usually toward the middle of the field, the receiver is perfectly positioned to catch the ball as it lands… right at the receiver’s back-most shoulder. That will be the right shoulder if the receiver is running on the left side of the field and has turned in to the right; the left shoulder on the right side of the field with the receiver turned in to the left.

One disadvantage of a back shoulder pass is that it’s harder to catch. I tried to trap a pass in a pickup soccer game that was a little behind me the other day and I basically just fell directly into a pile of mud. It’s hard to swivel your upper body while running full speed and successfully catch a ball. In order to do it, a wide receiver will often have to slow down or even dive backwards, both of which make it harder for them to gain yardage after the catch, another disadvantage. The advantage is that it is safer than leading a wide receiver running down the field. Although back shoulder passes require great anticipation from the quarterback and coordination between him and his receivers to work, when they go wrong, they don’t tend to go very, very wrong. No matter what, the intended receiver’s body should still be between the ball and the defender, making it harder for them to intercept the ball or knock it down.

By breaking the fundamental rule we all learn when we first throw a football, the back shoulder pass exploits another fundamental rule – that a defender should keep his body between the receiver he’s guarding and the end zone.

Thanks for reading,
Ezra Fischer

One line to fool them all – 10.19.15

Sports talk is frequently used as a common language but it’s far from universal. If you’re someone who doesn’t follow or even understand sports, you can find yourself at a disadvantage in common small-talk situations like in an elevator, waiting for a bus, sitting at a bar, or around the proverbial water cooler at work. Even if you are a sports fan, it’s impossible to watch everything and know everything. To help in these situations, we provide lines to use when engaged in a conversation about all of the high profile sporting events of the day, plus explanations of what they mean.

NFL Football

Sunday, October 18, 2015 1 p.m. ET

Cincinnati Bengals 34, at Buffalo Bills 21

Line: It just doesn’t look like anyone can stop the Bengals.

What it means: The Bengals have won all six of their games so far this year and they’ve scored lots of points in every one of them. In order, they’ve scored 33, 24, 28, 36, 27, and now 34 points. Although offense and defense are almost completely separate teams in football, there’s an interesting symbiosis at work. If a defense knows it can count on its offense, it plays better, and vice-versa. Right now, the Bengals are operating as a very virtuous cycle.

Denver Broncos 26, at Cleveland Browns 23

Line: At some point it stops being a fluke that Denver is winning despite Peyton Manning instead of because of him.

What it means: The story on the Broncos so far this year has been that their undefeated record is untrustworthy; that they are not as good as their record would suggest because their once great quarterback, Peyton Manning, has played so poorly. After six straight wins though, perhaps it’s time to admit that even with an average quarterback, the rest of the Broncos is good enough to win consistently. They’re unlikely to end the season without losing, but they’ll win a lot of games.

Chicago Bears 34 at Detroit Lions 37

Line: Who wrote that line about lots of noise, “signifying nothing?” Probably Shakespeare, right? Anyway — whoever it was must have watched this game.

What it means: This game had everything you’d want out of an NFL game. It was an exciting, high scoring game, with lots of drama, that went into overtime… but because neither of these teams is going to amount to anything this year, (the Bears are 2-4, the Lions 1-5), it feels meaningless.

Houston Texans 31, at Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Line: I wonder if the Texans can make a run at the Colts now that they seem to have settled on a quarterback?

What it means: The Indianapolis Colts are the favorites to win the AFC South division, with the Texans, Jaguars, and Titans trailing behind them. There are a few signs though that the Texans may be able to give them a run for their money in the standings this year. The Texans started the year with some uncertainty at quarterback, where they had two players, Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer, competing for the starting job. After two straight good performances, it seems clear that Hoyer has won the job. That should settle the team down on offense and on defense, it’s hard to believe they could play any worse than they have. In fact, they’re likely to get better — they have so many talented players on defense.

Kansas City Chiefs 10 at Minnesota Vikings 16

 

Line: The Vikings aren’t flashy, but is there a winning team that’s flying more under the radar than them this year? I don’t think so.

What it means: The Vikings don’t get covered as much as other teams, and other than problematic running back, Adrian Peterson, they don’t have any big name stars. Perhaps because of that, or perhaps because they were on the wrong side of a fluky week one loss to the San Francisco 49ers, no one seems to be mentioning them as a playoff contender. With four games against teams the Vikings should probably beat coming up, (Lions, Bears, Rams, Raiders), you can sound savvy and prescient by talking about the Vikings now.

Miami Dolphins 38, at Tennessee Titans 10

Line: I guess that’s why you fire your coach.

What it means: The Miami Dolphins fired their coach two weeks ago, before the team’s bye week (when they don’t play a game.) Even two weeks isn’t enough time to make real tactical changes to an NFL team. So, teams that fire a coach in the middle of a season generally do it because they want to make an emotional or attitudinal change to a team that’s lost its will or understanding of how to play hard. From the result of this game, it certainly looks like that goal was met.

Washington Redskins 20, at New York Jets 34

Line: I know it’s virtually impossible to win in the NFL without a great quarterback, but if any team could do it, it might be the Jets.

What it means:  Quarterback is the most important position in modern professional football, by such a large margin, that it seems impossible to win without a great quarterback. In order to win despite having an average quarterback, like the Jets have, you have to be nearly perfect in every other area. The Jets have excellent wide receivers, a trio of strong running backs, a decent offensive line, and an intimidating defense. So far, they’ve won four games and lost only one — giving hope to every quarterback-wanting team in the league.

Arizona Cardinals 13, at Pittsburgh Steelers 25

Line: If I were the Steelers, I’d keep Roethlisberger out for another couple weeks. The way they’re playing, there’s no reason to be aggressive and risk re-injury.

What it means: Steelers star quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, went down during the third game of the season with what initially looked like a major knee injury. After further examination, it was “only” a bone bruise and sprained MCL which he should be able to recover from in four to six weeks. After just two weeks out, Roethlisberger was already lobbying to be let back into the game this week. Despite his wishes, with the Steelers 2-1 in their three games without their starting quarterback, it’s probably better for the team and for Roethlisberger’s long-term health to hold him out another few weeks.

Sunday, October 18, 2015 4:05 or 4:25 p.m. ET

Carolina Panthers 27, at Seattle Seahawks 23

Line: I know it looks bad, but don’t count the Seahawks out yet, they’ve lost to three undefeated teams.

What it means: The Seattle Seahawks, who were good enough over the past two years to go to the Super Bowl twice, have lost four of their first six games. That’s not good and most people are probably close to concluding that the Seahawks just aren’t a very good team this year. Caution them not to jump to conclusions prematurely. The Seahawks four losses have come to a divisional rival, the Rams, who always play them closer than their relative skill would suggest likely, and three teams that are all undefeated – the Bengals, Packers, and Panthers.

Baltimore Ravens 20, at San Francisco 49ers 25

Line: Free Steve Smith.

What it means: Steve Smith is a pint-sized dynamo who plays wide receiver for the Baltimore Ravens. This is his 15th and final season in the NFL. Even at 36, he plays football with more determination and bottled up fury than virtually anyone out there. He’s a giant crowd favorite, which is why it’s such an enormous shame that he’ll be stuck in his last year in the league, playing for a mediocre team with no chance at making a playoff run. The phrase, “Free [name of player]” has become common in sports circles over the past few years. It asks that a fun player be released from a not-so-fun situation, in this case, playing on a last place team. It’s unrealistic — trades in the NFL are not common — but it’s a nice sentiment.

San Diego Chargers 20, at Green Bay Packers 27

Line: Phillip Rivers in the game against the Packers was like the world’s best classical conductor playing with your high school marching band.

What it means: Phillip Rivers is the quarterback of the San Diego Chargers. In this game, he set franchise records for passing attempts, pass completions, and passing yards. He threw for over 500 yards (300 is generally thought of as the line between a good game and a great game) and came extremely close to tying the game in its final seconds. He accomplished all of this despite being surrounded by lackluster, inexperienced, undersized, or over-the-hill wide receivers, running backs, tight ends, and offensive linemen.

Sunday, October 18, 2015 8:30 p.m. ET

New England Patriots 34 at Indianapolis Colts 27

Line: If you put aside all the Deflategate stuff, that was just a great football game.

What it means: The lead-up to this game was all about how the Patriots wanted revenge for the Colts putting them through a season of controversy. It was the Colts who originally turned the Patriots in to the league for having improperly inflated the footballs they used on offense in a playoff game last spring against the Colts. Drama may have gotten us to watch the game with more focus than normal, but the high quality of the game was what kept us watching.

Pitch that game: NFL Week 6, 2015

Hello everyone and welcome to America’s favorite game show that… has never actually happened before and no one has heard of it… it’s Pitch That Game!

Here’s how it works. As your host, I have one minute to pitch a sporting event to someone who is not a sports fan. If, after my pitch, they’re interested in watching, I get a point! That’s it! Why would we play such a game? Well, it’s a good way to quickly learn about a set of games to see if you’re interested in following any of them. It’s also a great way for me to learn from you about what may or may not make a sport interesting to a layperson.

In this episode, I pitch you, the listener, all 14 of the NFL games this weekend, on Sunday October 18 and Monday October 19. If you want to know which games will be available on your TV this weekend, check out 506 Sports NFL. If you need help figuring out how to make sense out of what you see there, use my explanation of how to use 506 Sports NFL here.

Enjoy the show!

Sunday, October 18, 2015 1 p.m. ET

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills

We’re in the midst of a major league baseball playoffs that guarantee a World Series winner who hasn’t won since somewhere between 1993 and 1908. No matter which of the four remaining teams wins, it’s going to be a great story. In the NFL, it’s far too early to guarantee anything, but the Cincinnati Bengals, who have never won the Super Bowl in their 46 year history are undefeated so far and playing like a run-away-train on offense and a brick wall on defense. They take their 5-0 record into Buffalo to play against a Bills team whose promising start has been hampered by injuries. The Bills and their fans are always tough at home, especially when it’s cold and windy and maybe even snowy like it’s supposed to be on Sunday.

Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns

While we’re on the subject of weather, let’s talk about the next game, the Denver Broncos at the Cleveland Browns. Weather is usually an overrated factor in football games. Rain and snow don’t seem to have much of an impact. The only thing that can effect the game in a major way is wind. Wind makes it harder for quarterbacks, especially those like the 38-year old, nerve-damaged Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, who don’t exactly have the strongest arms anymore. Every game Manning plays is like watching a real-life battle between mind and matter. This one will pit mind vs. matter and wind.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

After three weeks, these two teams had a combined record of zero wins and six losses. From that moment, one team has continued its downward slide and the other has scrabbled up with all its might. The Chicago Bears have been rewarded for their determination with two close wins, one by two points over the Raiders and one by one point over the Chiefs. The Lions have just lost and lost. If the Bears can beat the Lions, a divisional rival, in this game, they’ll complete their climb back to .500 with three straight wins after three straight losses.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Texans and Jaguars are both in the AFC South division, which has been dominated by the Colts over the past fifteen years. The start of this year provided a glorious opportunity for the other teams in the division because the Colts have struggled with injuries and performance issues. Alas, none of the other teams could seize the day. The Texans and Jaguars are both 1-4 and looking for a win to salvage any hope of competing for the playoffs this year. I favor the Jaguars in this game. In watching the Jaguars, you can see some of the elements of a good team emerging from the muck.

Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings

Unusual for today’s NFL, both of these teams intended to build their season around powerful rushing attacks led by two of the best running backs in the NFL, the Vikings Adrian Peterson and the Chiefs Jamaal Charles. As spectators, we’re robbed of an opportunity to see them go head-to-head this weekend because Charles tore his ACL last weekend. Instead, we’ll see two replacement running backs with great names, Knile Davis and Charcandrick West, try to step into Charles’ giant shoes. On the other side, the Vikings will continue to play the good, conservative football that’s led them to a 2-2 record so far this year.

Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans

The Dolphins have been the disappointment of the season. So much so, that two weeks ago they became the first team this year to fire their coach. It’s hard to replace a coach in the middle of the season because of football’s complexity. There isn’t enough time to meaningfully change what the team knows how to do. Instead, new coach and former tough-guy tight end Dan Campbell will look to make an attitudinal difference. The question on the other side is what the Titans actually have in rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota. Mariota came out of the blocks fast with a record setting performance in the Titans week one win but has been less successful since. We’re starting to hear whispers that Mariota may not be versatile enough in how he thinks and reacts during a game to win.

Washington Redskins at New York Jets

Normally when Washington travels to New Jersey to play football, they’re facing their divisional opponent and arch-enemy, the New York Giants. This week they play against the New York Jets, the team in the other conference that shares a stadium with the New York Giants. That’s a weird little tidbit that makes this game unusual. What makes it compelling is how much better both teams have played this year than they were expected to. Both teams won only four games last year. The Jets are only one win away from equalling their tally and the Redskins are already half-way there.

Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers

These two teams have been connected since 1944 when, due to player shortages during World War II, they merged to play a season as a single team. That joint venture went winless, leading critics to call them the “carpets” a play on Cardinals and Pittsburgh and also the household object you tread on. More recently, they played each other in the 2008 season’s Super Bowl, one of the most entertaining in recent memory. During that game, the offensive coordinator of the winning Pittsburgh team was none other than Bruce Arians, now the head coach of the Cardinals. All of this is to say that in addition to this being a matchup of two of the most talented teams in the league, and a potential preview of this year’s Super Bowl, it’s also a game with great recent and distant history.

Sunday, October 18, 2015 4:05 or 4:25 p.m. ET

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

I don’t know if it’s been a conscious or unconscious thing on the part of the Panthers management, but it certainly seems like they’ve spent the last several years trying to model their team after the Seahawks. The Panthers are almost like the East Coast branch of the Seahawks. Built around magician quarterbacks who escape pressure to make plays, patient running games, and stifling, physical defenses, both teams try to win games in similar ways. What that means for this game, is that its winner will likely be the team who executes the plan the best, not the one with the best plan.

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers

It’s hard to believe that these two teams met in the Super Bowl only three seasons ago. This year, both teams are only a shell of what they were during that season. Both teams’ elite defensive units have been disassembled by free agency, retirement, and injuries. Both offenses have lost many of their supporting characters. San Francisco’s offensive line is missing in action and Baltimore’s starting wide receivers actually both play for San Francisco now. Both teams are 1-4 and facing the certainty of a lost season if they fall to 1-5. Realistically, both are likely to have a lost season no matter what — it’s not a coincidence that they’ve lost four games out of the first five — but another loss will really shut the door in their faces.

San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers

If the pinnacle of sports is about achievement in the face of challenges, this game fits the bill to a T. Both teams have wonderful quarterbacks who have difficult tasks. In the case of the Chargers quarterback, Phillip Rivers, he’ll be up against a solid Green Bay defense without a strong offensive line — the most essential support for any quarterback. Packers quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, will be playing without his best receiver, Jordy Nelson, who is out for the year with a knee injury, and with his two next-best receivers hampered by shoulder and ankle injuries. I suspect both quarterbacks will be up to the challenge but only one can win.

Sunday, October 18, 2015 8:30 p.m. ET

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts

The Patriots have been waiting for this day ever since last Spring when the Colts started the giant shit-storm called Deflategate by reporting the Patriots to the league for having used improperly inflated footballs in the playoff game between these two teams. Although quarterback Tom Brady was eventually vindicated in court and escaped suspension, the Patriots want to beat the Colts more than Bernie Sanders wants to bring down Wall Street, more than Jeb Bush wants to be president… even more than Donald Trump wants you to pay attention to him. This game is the most highly anticipated passion play of the season. I hope it lives up to expectations.

Monday, October 19, 2015 8:30 p.m. ET

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

The NFC East, which is the division the Giants and Eagles are both in, is the biggest, most popular, most watched, and most talked about division in football. That’s true even in years when the division doesn’t have any truly great teams, like it appears not to this year. The Giants are in first place right now, with a record of three wins and two losses but the other three teams are all only a game behind with two wins and three losses. The chance for all four teams remaining relatively close to one another throughout the year seems to be good, which makes every game between teams even more important.