Category: Following Sports

How to plan for the week of Dec 14-20, 2015

If you are a sports fan or if you live with a sports fan then your weekly schedule becomes inextricably linked with what sporting events are on at what times during each week. The conflict between missing a sporting event for a poorly committed to social event and missing an appealing social event to watch a game is an important balancing act in any kind of romantic, familial, or business relationship between a sports fan and a non-sports fan. To help facilitate this complicated advanced mathematics, Dear Sports Fan has put together a table showing the most important sporting events of the upcoming week. Print it out, put it on your fridge, and go through it with your scheduling partner.

For detail on the all-popular, all-powerful NFL, which groups most of its games on Sunday afternoons, see our NFL Forecast. You can also get daily updates from our NHL forecast and NBA forecast.

Download a full-size copy here.

Monday: The story of British soccer this season has been the precipitous fall of last year’s champion, Chelsea. After 15 games, they’re in 15th place out of 20 teams. That’s frankly absurd given how much more money Chelsea has to spend on players than the other teams around them in the standings. Today they’ll try to get back on track against Leicester City. Leicester has been the exact mirror image of Chelsea so far. After climbing out of last place at the end of last season, they’re a surprise second place so far this year. In the NFL, the Giants and Dolphins both still have hopes of making the playoffs but they won’t anymore (or at least not if they are rational) if they lose this game.

Tuesday: Today’s calendar looks like an NHL hockey sandwich, with men’s college basketball as the bread. Delicious.

Wednesday: The U.S. Women’s National Soccer team continues its interminable victory tour tonight with a friendly against their once and future rival. China. The Pittsburgh Penguins will be interesting to watch as they take on the Boston Bruins less than a week after firing their coach.

Thursday: Catch a preview of the NCAA women’s volleyball finals by watching both semifinals on ESPN2. Catch a potential preview of the NBA championships by watching Oklahoma City vs. Cleveland on TNT. Catch a preview of… absolutely nothing by watching the NFL game between St. Louis vs. Tampa Bay on NFL Network.

Friday: Date night! Celebrate the little guys by watching the Division III football championships. Or just lounge around and watch a very good NBA double-header on ESPN.

Saturday: The college football bowl season begins with a full slate of games. The general quality of the games gets better over time, so the first day is usually nothing to write home about. In this case, some of the bowls at least feature geographic rivalries. The women’s NCAA volleyball championship is on ESPN2 and will be worth checking out. In hockey, two of the top teams this year, Montreal and Dallas, play one of only two games against each other this year. The NFL colonizes Saturdays with a moderately interesting game between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets.

Sunday: Even more now than ever, because of the impending real life playoffs and the current fantasy football playoffs, the NFL rules the day. If you’re looking for non-football sports to watch, you do have some excellent options. There are two watchable British soccer games in the morning, a trio of college basketball games, men’s and women’s in the afternoon and evening, and little bits of cycling and figure skating as a bonus!

Caveat — This forecast is optimized for the general sports fan, not a particular sports fan. As such, your mileage may vary. For instance, you or the sports fan in your life is a fan of a particular team, then a regular season MLB baseball game or MLS soccer game may be more important on a particular day than anything on the forecast above. Use the calendar as a way to facilitate conversation about scheduling, not as the last word on when there are sports to watch.

Why do once in a generation things happen so often in sports?

Dear Sports Fan,

My girlfriend convinced me to watch a Golden State Warriors game last night by saying that teams as good as them only come along once every twenty or thirty years. I watched the game. They were legitimately great but it seems like sports fans have something they need to watch for that reason pretty frequently. Why do once in a generation things happen so often in sports?

Thanks,
Cesar

Dear Cesar,

The Golden State Warriors are a magnificent basketball team. They won the championship last spring and, unlike many championship winning teams, have started this season strong. They’ve won their first 23 games. In doing so, they obliterated the previous record for consecutive wins to start a season, which two other teams had set at 15. They’re closing in on the Los Angeles Lakers record for wins in a row, (any time during the season,) which is 33 and has been since the 1971-72 season. Their start also has the folks over at Five Thirty Eight frantically modeling to see how likely it is that the Warriors match or beat the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls season record of 72 wins and 10 losses. The conclusion they come to is that the Warriors certainly can but will probably choose not to, since breaking that record is likely to be a harmful distraction from their true goal of winning another championship. The Warriors streak is so impressive, that the Harlem Globetrotters (who were once a very real, very formidable competitive basketball team but who now only play exhibition games against a team of stooges called the Washington Generals,) jokingly worried on Twitter about the safety of their own “record”:

Beyond numbers, the Warriors are a wonderful collection of characters to root for. Their super star, Steph Curry, is barely big enough to make you look twice at him if he passed you on the street, and yet he’s as unstoppable a force as any the NBA has known. He is the best long-range shooter in NBA history and plays with a fluid, captivating style. He’s surrounded by teammates who benefit from and augment his skills. Klay Thompson, who pales in comparison to Curry, may also be one of the top 20 shooters in NBA history. Draymond Green was a popular college basketball player who most thought would not amount to much in the pros. Now he’s the new prototype for a power forward, one who can do a little bit of everything well enough to be extraordinarily effective. The next five best players on the team, Andrew Bogut, Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livington, and Festus Ezeli all have their own talents and their own attractive stories. From a sports fan’s perspective, the Warriors really are a comet passing through space: rare and wondrous. To give you a sense of how much people want to see them, their presence as the away team playing against the Boston Celtics this Friday has launched tickets on the secondary market from starting at between $13 and $20 to starting between $150 and $200.

Your question wasn’t about whether the Warriors were amazing, it was about how rare they are. There’s a saying I love: “You’re one in a million… which means there’s a thousand people just like you in China.” One in a million seems like a giant rarity, but not when viewed against a country with a population of over a billion! The same thing is true about sports. Say the Warriors truly are a generational team. That would put them alongside the Chicago Bulls that set that 72-10 record in 1996. That’s awfully convenient, because it was 20 years ago, exactly the number most people use in estimating a generation. Go back farther, and most people point to the 1985 Celtics as another generationally good team. That’s only 10 years before the Bulls, but that’s okay, sometimes data falls randomly in clumps. No big deal. The thing is, sports fans follow many sports. Most fans follow at least three of the big four American professional leagues (NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL) pretty closely. Add a college sport or two, international competitions like the Olympics and World Cup, as well as a few individual sports like tennis, golf, boxing, or car racing. That’s close to 10 sports that a fan will follow. The chances of a generational event (one every 20 years) happening in a sport, if you follow 10 of them, is 50% in any given year.

Of course, when something this eventful happens in a sport a fan doesn’t follow closely, there’s a good chance that she’ll hear about it on Twitter, Facebook, Sports Center, from a podcast or a friend, etc. And anything so magnificent, so rare, as a generational sporting event is worth following, even from an unusual sport! There are also two or three close calls for every one truly generational event (the Carolina Panthers are 12-0 in the NFL right now… if they get to 16-0, they will be only the second team to ever do it. Earlier this year Serena Williams almost became the first person to win all four major tennis tournaments in a year – called the Grand Slam – since 1988). So, if you’re a sports fan who wants to see something with the potential to be truly remarkable, you’ve legitimately got a chance to watch one every couple of months at most.

Thanks for reading,
Ezra Fischer

 

One line to fool them all – 12.7.15

Sports talk is frequently used as a common language but it’s far from universal. If you’re someone who doesn’t follow or even understand sports, you can find yourself at a disadvantage in common small-talk situations like in an elevator, waiting for a bus, sitting at a bar, or around the proverbial water cooler at work. Even if you are a sports fan, it’s impossible to watch everything and know everything. To help in these situations, we provide lines to use when engaged in a conversation about all of the high profile sporting events of the day, plus explanations of what they mean.

NFL Football

Texans 21, Bills 30

Line: Neither team is all that good, but the Bills needed this one more.

What it means: After this game, both teams have won six games and lost six. The difference is that the Bills are in the same division as the 10-2 New England Patriots, and therefore will need to get a wildcard spot to make the playoffs. The Texans are tied for the best record in their division with the Indianapolis Colts and are therefore still very much in a good position to claim a playoff spot by winning their division title.

Ravens 13, Dolphins 15

Line: It’s hard to admit for Ravens fans, but they’re probably better off having lost this game.

What it means: The Ravens have been a consistently good team over the past decade. This year, they couldn’t get things together and then, while they were falling apart, they broke. What does that mean? Well, they weren’t winning many games and then all their good players got injured. Now, it’s probably best for them to lose their remaining games and get the best draft pick in this year’s draft as possible.

Bengals 37, Browns 3

Line: I guess the common/uncommon opponents theory of the Bengals doesn’t hold for the Browns.

What it means: The Bengals have been an excellent team for most of this season. Some smart football analyst out there noticed though, that when they struggle, it’s often in games against teams that are used to playing them, especially if they have played them recently. The Browns, who are in the same division as the Bengals, and who have already played them this year, are a perfect example of a common opponent, who the Bengals might struggle against. The only problem? The Browns aren’t very good. Sometimes the even simpler answer is the correct one.

49ers 26, Bears 20

Line: Oh 49ers fans, Blaine Gabbert is doing just enough to reel them in.

What it means:  The 49ers have had an incredibly bad season. They lost their coach and several important defensive players before the season. They benched their starting quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, part of the way through the season, and will probably let him leave as a free agent this summer. You’d think they would be looking for a new young quarterback in the draft but the backup quarterback, a guy named Blaine Gabbert who failed spectacularly with his previous team, has done just enough that the 49ers might be able to convince themselves to trust him with their future. It probably won’t end well.

Jaguars 39, Titans 42

Line: Whoa! Dear Sports Fan’s NFL Forecast was right!

What it means: When the formulas that run my NFL Forecast told me that this game was going to be one of the top games of the week, I thought seriously about arguing with it. “No way,” I thought. These teams suck! Suck they may, but apparently they are bad in ways that match up perfectly to create an entertaining football game. These teams play in the same division, so with luck, we’ll see lots of similarly exciting games in the future from them.

Seahawks 38, Vikings 7

Line: Uh oh, the Seahawks appear to have returned.

What it means: The Seahawks have made the Super Bowl in the past two seasons, winning two years ago and losing last year on a fluky play right at the end of the game. From their poor play at the start of this season, it seemed like they were not going to be returning for a third year. Now, after a dominant win against a very good team, the Seahawks have

Jets 23, Giants 20

Line: This one was way more than the battle of New York.

What it means: The easy narrative about this game is that it was a rare (once every four years) game between the two teams who claim to be from New York and play in New Jersey. Neither of these teams cared about that narrative. The game was too important to both teams in terms of their chance to win their division (Giants) or make the playoffs as a wildcard (Jets.) The Jets win gives a significant boost to their playoff chances.

Cardinals 27, Rams 3

Line: Ho, hum.

What it means: Nothing to see here, really. A dominant team beat a team they were expected to beat. The world continues to turn.

Falcons 19, Buccaneers 23

Line: Ugh. I guess it’s time to admit that Jameis Winston is good at football.

What it means: The number one overall pick from this year’s draft, Jameis Winston, the quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, is an impossible player to root for. Alas, that doesn’t mean he’s bad at football. Apparently, he’s actually pretty good at it. Damn.

Broncos 17, Chargers 3

Line: Doesn’t look like Peyton Manning’s getting his job back.

What it means: With every Broncos win under understudy quarterback Brock Osweiler’s leadership, the odds of once-legendary quarterback Peyton Manning getting his job back get longer and longer. Longer odds mean something is less likely. Manning lost his job ostensibly because of injury, but even if he could play, it looks like Osweiler is simply better.

Chiefs 34, Raiders 20

Line: That’s six in a row for the Chiefs and four of the last five for the Raiders.

What it means: After a terrible start, the Chiefs have won six games in a row. Meanwhile, the Raiders, who had a good first half of the season, have lost four of their last five games. It’s a tricky stat though, because they won the two games before their last five. So… you could equally say that the Raiders have won three of their last seven games. That doesn’t sound nearly as convincing though, so sports blogs (real ones, that is) won’t admit it.

Panthers 41, Saints 38

Line: The Panthers proved they can win even when their defense plays badly. Watch out NFL.

What it means: The Panthers are the last undefeated team in the NFL this season. They’ve done it to a large degree because they have one of the best defenses in the league. That defense played unexpectedly bad today and the Panthers still found a way to win. They’re still not getting as much press as they probably deserve. I think the Panthers have a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl.

Eagles 35, Patriots 28

Line: With all their injuries, the Patriots need to play close to a perfect game in the other two phases to win. They didn’t come close.

What it means: People talk about their being three phases to a football game: offense, defense, and special teams. The Patriots are missing a lot of important players on offense because of injury. They can still score, but perhaps not as prolifically as before. This means that their margin of error on defense and special teams is narrowed. They lost this game largely because of mistakes on special teams and their defense wasn’t good enough to make up for it.

Colts 10, Steelers 45

Line: Uh… I think the Steelers are going to win the Super Bowl.

What it means: They’re not the team with the best record in their division — that’s the Bengals. They’re not even a lock to make the playoffs — although this win makes it much more likely that they will. But the way their offense plays when it’s playing well, it just doesn’t seem possible to beat them.

How to plan for the week of Dec 7-13, 2015

If you are a sports fan or if you live with a sports fan then your weekly schedule becomes inextricably linked with what sporting events are on at what times during each week. The conflict between missing a sporting event for a poorly committed to social event and missing an appealing social event to watch a game is an important balancing act in any kind of romantic, familial, or business relationship between a sports fan and a non-sports fan. To help facilitate this complicated advanced mathematics, Dear Sports Fan has put together a table showing the most important sporting events of the upcoming week. Print it out, put it on your fridge, and go through it with your scheduling partner.

For detail on the all-popular, all-powerful NFL, which groups most of its games on Sunday afternoons, see our NFL Forecast. You can also get daily updates from our NHL forecast and NBA forecast.

Download a full-size copy here.

Monday: If you didn’t get enough soccer over the weekend, there’s one last British Premier League game. Just like the NFL, the BPL makes Monday a part of the weekend. This Monday’s game is Crystal Palace vs. Everton. Hard to root against a team called Crystal Palace! In the evening, before the NFL’s extension game, a woefully exciting NFC East matchup, watch a little bit of Indiana men’s college basketball and root for IUPUI, the best acronym in the game.

Tuesday: Take a trip to Germany for some UEFA Champions League soccer in the afternoon and then return to Indiana, (which has apparently become the official state of Dear Sports Fan,) for some NBA basketball. The Golden State Warriors will go for their 23rd win in a row — they haven’t lost yet this season! Seriously, any time you get a chance to watch Golden State this year — do it. They are amazing. Flip back and forth with an NHL game between two of the top teams in the league right now, the Detroit Red Wings and Washington Capitals.

Wednesday: Oh, sure, there’s more Champions League soccer in the afternoon, and that’s probably the best soccer in the world, but what I’m excited about is the hockey game. This may be my first experience of living in Boston when the Bruins are playing their age-old arch-enemies, the Montreal Canadiens. It’s like Sherlock vs. Moriarity with sticks.

Thursday: The United States Women’s National Soccer team was supposed to play an exhibition match against Trinidad and Tobago this past Sunday. They had to cancel it because the field conditions were so poor. Hopefully they’ll get things right this time and give these athletes a field they can safely play on. In the NFL, the Super Bowl aspiring Cardinals play a suddenly desperate Minnesota Vikings team that was blown out last weekend. It should be an interesting game.

Friday: Date night! Sports schedulers also know that, so Friday night tends to be when they put the less high profile sports. Sometimes those are the most fun to watch. Today’s slate has a great women’s basketball game and two college playoff games, one in Division 1-A football and one in women’s volleyball.

Saturday: It’s a sentimental day of sports with the traditional Army loss to Navy in football and a golf tournament that pairs fathers and sons in teams. I can’t wait to watch some of the father/son pairings argue about the best way to drive a golf cart.

Sunday: Another Sunday whose non-football sports can at least rival its football. In addition to the normal festival of football, you can watch three great soccer games: one from the British Premier League, one the NCAA men’s championship game, and another women’s international friendly. College basketball abounds. My suggestions are a women’s game between Stanford and Texas and a men’s game between Syracuse and St. John’s.

Caveat — This forecast is optimized for the general sports fan, not a particular sports fan. As such, your mileage may vary. For instance, you or the sports fan in your life is a fan of a particular team, then a regular season MLB baseball game or MLS soccer game may be more important on a particular day than anything on the forecast above. Use the calendar as a way to facilitate conversation about scheduling, not as the last word on when there are sports to watch.

One line to fool them all – 11.29.15

Sports talk is frequently used as a common language but it’s far from universal. If you’re someone who doesn’t follow or even understand sports, you can find yourself at a disadvantage in common small-talk situations like in an elevator, waiting for a bus, sitting at a bar, or around the proverbial water cooler at work. Even if you are a sports fan, it’s impossible to watch everything and know everything. To help in these situations, we provide lines to use when engaged in a conversation about all of the high profile sporting events of the day, plus explanations of what they mean.

NFL Football

Bills 22, Chiefs 30

Line:  I know they say momentum doesn’t exist, but it’s hard to explain the Chiefs season any other way.

What it means: Traditionally, athletes, coaches, sports fans, and commentators subscribe to the notion of momentum both within a particular game and throughout a season. It certainly feels like one win makes the next win easier and one loss makes the next loss more likely. More recently though, as statistics and economic theory have taken over the sports world, the truth of momentum has been put in question. Modern statistic heads generally believe that streaks are random, not fated. The Kansas City Chiefs season seems like good evidence for the validity of momentum. After winning their first game, they lost five in a row, seemingly hit rock bottom, and have now won five games in a row.

Rams 7, Bengals 31

Line: Looks like the Bengals train is back on track after a couple of losses.

What it means: The Cincinnati Bengals were undefeated after eight games. Then they lost two games, one miserably, one valiantly, and both on national television. These losses made a lot of people doubt whether the Bengals are really a Super Bowl contender or just, as they say, a pretender. I’m not sure how many people will be convinced by this win, against the increasingly sorry Rams, but to my eye, the Bengals seem like they’ve got a shot.

Saints 6, Texans 24

Line: Defense still beats offense, even in the NFL.

What it means: One of the primary complaints from old-school football fans is that today’s NFL is too slanted toward offense — specifically that the league has created too many rules that allow offenses to operate free from the interference of even the best defenses. That’s not always true, and it wasn’t true in this game, where the team with the great defense, Houston, beat the team with the prolific offense, New Orleans. The Texans have now won four games in a row and are in a close playoff race.

Bucs 12, Colts 25

Line: Old age and treachery wins out of youth and vigor again!

What it means:  That’s an old saying, the source of which I’m not sure of, but I love it anyway. In this case, old age and treachery were represented by Indianapolis Colts quarterback, Matt Hasselbeck, who is still undefeated this year. Youth and vigor was represented by Buccaneers quarterback, Jameis Winston, who was four years old when Hasselbeck first played in the NFL.

Chargers 31, Jaguars 25

Line: It’s worth checking the Chargers upcoming schedule. They’re way out of it, but they could be a pretty dangerous spoiler.

What it means: At 3-8, the Chargers are definitely not going to make the playoffs this year. Playing spoiler means trying to beat teams that do have a chance to make the playoffs, even if your team doesn’t. Of course, it’s a slightly silly concept, because every professional football player plays as hard as they can every game for other reasons, like… it’s their job, people who may hire or fire them in the future are watching and evaluating them, playing anything less than your best on every play is perceived as adding to the risk of injury, etc. All that said, it seems like playing spoiler can be a rallying cry anyway.

Dolphins 20, Jets 38

Line: This one had the feel of an elimination game, and the Dolphins definitely got eliminated.

What it means: With both teams at  or under .500 coming into this game, and with the undefeated Patriots in their division, the Jets and the Dolphins knew that losing this game would be a mortal blow to their playoff hopes. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Dolphins lost. Aside from a brief moment they had after firing their coach, they’ve been a thoroughly uninspired and uninspiring team this year. The Jets’ hopes live on for at least another week.

Vikings 20, Atlanta Falcons 10

Line: The weekend just got worse for Green Bay.

What it means: It does the Falcons and the Vikings both a disservice, but the story of this game is more about a higher profile team than either of them, the Green Bay Packers. The Packers are expected to win their division, which the Vikings are in, but they’ve played poorly over the last few weeks, including in a loss to the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving. This win by the Vikings puts them in the lead, over the Packers, in their division, the NFC North. No city cares more about their NFL team than Green Bay, and they’ll be in a profound state of crisis this week.

Giants 14, Redskins 20

Line: Of all the improbable outcomes from this season, seeing the Redskins in first place would just about be the tops.

What it means: Okay, no one really describes things as being “the tops” anymore, but try it, it could be fun! Washington was a dysfunctional 4-12 last year and an even more pathetic 3-13 the season before that. Now, they’re 5-6, which in their terrible division, is good enough for first place! They could make the playoffs! That would be funny!

Raiders 24, Titans 21

Line: The Raiders are up and down now, but it seems like they’re learning. Watch out for them in the next few years.

What it means: The Raiders are a young team with some extremely exciting players. On offense, they have promising young players are quarterback, wide receiver, and running back. Although it looked like they might make a playoff run this year, they probably won’t make it. That’s okay for Raiders fans, who are happy just to have a competitive team and will be counting on their team improving next year and in coming years. The same should be true for the Titans, but less to a lesser degree.

Cardinals 19, 49ers 13

Line: Cardinals fans don’t mind winning ugly, but the running back injuries could be a problem.

What it means: A win is a win is a win. No matter how you get it, it counts the same in the standings. Some can be more costly than others though, and in this case, the concern for Cardinals fans is that two of their top three running backs left the game with injuries. They’ll be waiting by their twitter machines for updates on them. No matter how explosive their third stringer, rookie David Johnson is, no one wants to have the fate of their team in a first year player’s hands.

Steelers 30, Seattle Seahawks 39

Line: This isn’t your father’s Steelers… or your older sister’s Seahawks for that matter.

What it means: Both of these teams have had periods of near dynastic dominance and both due to the strength of their defenses. The Steelers defense in the 1970s has become legendary and the Seahawks defense over the past five years was approaching that status. That’s what makes this game, with its wide open offensive play and very high score, so jarring to see. These teams are very different from those that came before them.

Patriots 24, Broncos 30

Line: Who cares about this game? The only important thing is Gronk’s MRI.

What it means: The defending champion New England Patriots have suffered a series of injuries to important players over the past few weeks. The lost their second most important offensive player tonight, Rob Gronkowski, to a nasty looking knee injury. If he’s out for the season, the Patriots will have no realistic chance to defend their title. Now, reducing this game to Gronkowski’s injury is not completely fair, it was a big win for the Broncos, who solidified their position at the top of their division, away from the charging Chiefs, but the loss certainly doesn’t hurt the Patriots nearly as much as the potential loss of Gronkowski.

How to plan for the week of Nov 30 – Dec 6, 2015

If you are a sports fan or if you live with a sports fan then your weekly schedule becomes inextricably linked with what sporting events are on at what times during each week. The conflict between missing a sporting event for a poorly committed to social event and missing an appealing social event to watch a game is an important balancing act in any kind of romantic, familial, or business relationship between a sports fan and a non-sports fan. To help facilitate this complicated advanced mathematics, Dear Sports Fan has put together a table showing the most important sporting events of the upcoming week. Print it out, put it on your fridge, and go through it with your scheduling partner.

For detail on the all-popular, all-powerful NFL, which groups most of its games on Sunday afternoons, see our NFL Forecast. You can also get daily updates from our NHL forecast and NBA forecast.

Download a full-size copy here.

Monday: Skip sports today, at least sports on TV. The big Monday Night Football game is a dud. There’s no major soccer on. Go find a high school basketball game or college hockey game to go to, sit up front, and enjoy yourself.

Tuesday: The highlight tonight is a great mid-season NHL double-header. The Wild and Blackhawks are serious rivals who enjoy competing with each other. If you can stay up, watch the ongoing soap opera that is the Pittsburgh Penguins as they travel out west to play the sharks.

Wednesday: Southampton doesn’t have much of a chance against Liverpool, DePaul has even less of a chance against Connecticut, but the New York Islanders, long the forgotten cousin of the New York Rangers, are now playing them with on at least an even keel.

Thursday: If you’re a basketball fan, you’ll probably gravitate toward the very respectable NBA double-header tonight. I’d recommend the NFL game. I’m not a big fan of Thursday night games, but this one is loaded with drama. The Green Bay Packers, long the quality of the NFC North division, are reeling after four losses in their last five games. The Detroit Lions, long the cellar-dwellers of the NFC North division, would like nothing better than to send them into an even deeper spiral.

Friday: Date night! If you live in NY, do a little role play with your partner. Have one of you throw on a Knicks jersey and the other a Nets jersey. Then pretend to meet in a bar by flirtatiously fighting over whose team is the best. Or, realistically, the least bad.

Saturday: Most college football conferences have their championship games today and a bunch of them should be really good games. The British Premier League slate is pretty weak. There’s a rare and compelling college men’s hockey game on NBC Sports Network that’s worth checking out, as are men’s and women’s NCAA basketball games in the afternoon.

Sunday: Add a great day of soccer to a normally excellent day of football and you’ve got an impressive Sunday of sports. The soccer triple-header is worth doing — witness excellence at the women’s college, men’s professional, and women’s international levels!

Caveat — This forecast is optimized for the general sports fan, not a particular sports fan. As such, your mileage may vary. For instance, you or the sports fan in your life is a fan of a particular team, then a regular season MLB baseball game or MLS soccer game may be more important on a particular day than anything on the forecast above. Use the calendar as a way to facilitate conversation about scheduling, not as the last word on when there are sports to watch.

A Thanksgiving 2015 NFL football preview

For many people, football is a part of Thanksgiving as much as the turkey, the stuffing, or the pie. For others, it’s a foreign addition to the meal, like corned beef and cabbage or Chinese food (both of which my family has cooked for past Thanksgivings, but that’s another story…) Sometimes, those people sit down at the same table. When that happens, it’s important for the football fans to realize that not everyone shares their passion. Sports fans need to make an effort to talk about other things sometimes. Then again, if those other things are going to be politics, religion, or money… maybe it’s a good idea for the non-sports fans to brush up on their football. For the sake of peace and good will at the Thanksgiving table, here’s what you need to know about the three NFL football games on Thanksgiving Day, 2015.

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions, 12:30 p.m. ET on Fox

The Lions are one of two teams that traditionally host Thanksgiving games. Most years, their fans have very little to be thankful for. This year was shaping up to be much the same after the team lost seven of its first eight games. Then the Lions went on the road to Green Bay, where they had not won since 1991. They won! Riding that wave of generational positivity, (yes, even for a 2-7 team,) the Lions won their next game against the Oakland Raiders. That was just last weekend. With the playoffs only the most pipey of pipe dreams, this Thanksgiving game will be the biggest game for the Lions for the rest of the year, simply because of the national spotlight playing on Thanksgiving gives the franchise. Their opponents in this game, the Philadelphia Eagles, are in even greater disarray. Unlike the Lions, the Eagles were supposed to be good this year and to challenge seriously for their division title. They’ve only won four games of their first ten and are hanging on to playoff hopes solely because their division is so bad. The best record in the division is only 5-5. The Eagles have lost three of their last four games and they and their egomaniacal, unorthodox, coach and general manager, Chip Kelly seem to be headed toward a sloppy divorce.

So, yes, these teams are not very good. On the other hand, because of that, the game could go in almost any direction. If you care about either of these two teams — for rooting, gambling, or fantasy reasons — then there’s a lot of suspense to be found here. The Lions could win by twenty. The Eagles could win by twenty. The game could be high scoring or low scoring. It could go into overtime or be over by the time your doorbell rings announcing your first guest. No one really knows. And that makes it kind of fun to watch.

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS

Alas, the most intriguing game of the day happens in the time least likely to be convenient for watching. 4:30 is pretty much dinner time on Thanksgiving, at least on the East Coast. Both teams, the visiting Carolina Panthers and the host Dallas Cowboys will be trying to do something for the first time ever. The Carolina Panthers have already set a record for the best start to a season their franchise has ever had. At 10-0, they are one of only two remaining undefeated teams in the league. Only 11 teams have ever started a season with 11 straight wins, and the Panthers will be trying to join that group on Thanksgiving. The team is led by three incredible players. Cam Newton is their leader on offense. A 6’5″ 250 lb behemoth, he’s the rare NFL quarterback who has the ability to run the ball almost as well as he can throw it and the build to hold up to the hits he takes when running. On defense, the Panthers are led by two players who are both near the top of their positions: Luke Keuchly at middle linebacker and Josh Norman at corner back. As for the Cowboys, they’re trying to do something which no NFL team has ever done before — make the playoffs after a 2-7 start. There are two things that give them hope in this audacious goal. The first is that all of their losses this season came while quarterback Tony Romo was injured and most while their best wide receiver, Dez Bryant, was injured as well. The second hopeful factor is that they are in the same division as the Eagles — the NFC East — and at 3-7, they are only two wins behind the division leading New York Giants.

One curious feature of this game is that the Cowboys are favored by a point. This means that people betting on the Cowboys need them to win by more than one point in order to make money while people betting on the Carolina Panthers would win even if the teams tied. It’s fairly extraordinary for a 10-0 team to be an underdog against a 3-7 team. This is partially because home teams tend to do a little better than visiting teams and because the Cowboys are notoriously a public team. Whatever the reason for it, you can be sure that the Panthers will use being an underdog as motivation, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they beat the Cowboys soundly.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers, 8:30 p.m. ET on NBC

The nightcap of the football schedule is a perfect game for sitting on the couch, enjoying a nightcap of your own or even some leftover pie or turkey sandwiches. The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers have played against each other more times than any two teams in NFL history. They are two classic franchises, and watching them play, especially late in the season, is like taking a trip back in time. By the time the game starts in Green Bay, the wind will be blowing around 15 mph, it will be right around freezing, and there’s a 90% chance of precipitation. There’s nothing better than watching football in bad weather… from the comfort of your couch.

As for the football game, the jury is out on whether Green Bay is an elite, championship contender this year. In Aaron Rodgers, they have the world’s best quarterback (with the possible exception of Tom Brady) but the question is how much quality he can wring out of the team’s group of less talented wide receivers. At times this season, the Packers offense has looked as good as ever, but in other games it has had periods of profound helplessness. Profound helplessness is pretty much the norm for Chicago Bears fans. Their team seems locked in an endless cycle of almost getting good and then falling apart again. This season has been a microcosm of that experience. The Bears started the season with three wins. Then they clawed their way back to reasonableness with two wins. Then they lost two more games to place them firmly in a bad place. Then, after their fans had given up a second time, they won two more games to go to 4-5 on the year, one game away from .500. A close loss last week to the Denver Broncos makes this game close to a must-win if the Bears have any hope of reaching the playoffs this year.

I fear that this game may get out of hand early if Green Bay gets out to an early lead. That would really be a shame, because this has the potential to be the coziest, most enjoyable football game of the day.

One line to fool them all – 11.22.15

Sports talk is frequently used as a common language but it’s far from universal. If you’re someone who doesn’t follow or even understand sports, you can find yourself at a disadvantage in common small-talk situations like in an elevator, waiting for a bus, sitting at a bar, or around the proverbial water cooler at work. Even if you are a sports fan, it’s impossible to watch everything and know everything. To help in these situations, we provide lines to use when engaged in a conversation about all of the high profile sporting events of the day, plus explanations of what they mean.

NFL Football

St. Louis Rams 13, Baltimore Ravens 16

Line: With wins like these, who needs losses?

What it means: You know the expression, “with friends like these, who needs enemies?” It’s a clever way of complaining that your friends are treating you as poorly as you’d expect from an enemy. Well, in this case, the Ravens win treated them as poorly or more poorly as almost any loss. The Ravens won the game but their starting running back broke his arm and their starting quarterback tore his ACL. Ouch.

Washington Redskins 16, Carolina Panthers 44

Line: I know the Redskins aren’t much, but this is still impressive. I think the Panthers are starting to convince me.

What it means: The Carolina Panthers are one of only two undefeated teams left in the NFL this season but because of their lack of well-known players and a schedule that’s matched them up with mostly bad teams, people haven’t yet really accepted that they are a truly great team. Despite the Redskins fitting the bill as yet another bad team, the way the Panthers dominated should convince some people.

Denver Broncos 17, Chicago Bears 15

Line: I’m not sure we’ll ever see Peyton Manning play again.

What it means: Although he didn’t play today, or perhaps especially because he didn’t play today, the biggest story of this game is Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning. He’s had a wonderful career but his play this year has been dreadful. He was finally pulled from a game last week and he sat this week out with a foot injury. The question is, with the Broncos looking better and playing more successfully without him, will he ever get back onto the field?

Dallas Cowboys 24, Miami Dolphins 14

Line: Tony Romo is still undefeated on the year…

What it means:  The Cowboys won their first two games of the year before losing starting quarterback Tony Romo to a broken collar bone. He missed seven games. The Cowboys lost seven games. This week, he finally returned, and the Cowboys won again. They’re lucky that the division they play in has not great (or perhaps even good,) teams, and they still have a shot at making the playoffs. They’ll need to be almost perfect from now on though.

Oakland Raiders 13, Detroit Lions 18

Line: Now that’s the Raiders we all know and love. What the heck happened to them? Things seemed like they were going so well.

What it means: For all but a few years of my life, and certainly my football watching life, the Raiders have been a laughingstock. They’ve been consistently one of the worst teams in the league. Finally, they seemed like they were going to be a good team this year, maybe even one that would be close to making the playoffs. Now they’ve lost three straight games, including this one to the even sorrier, more laughingstocky Lions.

New York Jets 17, Houston Texans 24

Line: Sure, the Texans won, but aren’t these teams essentially the same? Good enough to make you sweat but not good enough to win the whole thing?

What it means: The New York Jets and Houston Texans are both 5-5 (five wins, five losses) and in quite similar situations. Both teams have assembled strong defenses and good “skill position” players (running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers.) The missing piece for both teams is the quarterback. Neither team has a very good quarterback and that holds them back. The only real difference is that the Texans are in a division with no great team this year while the Jets are in a division with the undefeated Patriots. That makes it a more fun time to be a Texans fan — there’s more hope.

Indianapolis Colts 24, Atlanta Falcons 21

Line: Forget about Tony Romo, you know who else is undefeated as a quarterback this year? Matt F. Hasselbeck!

What it means: When I first saw a stat posted by Matt Hasselbeck this year, I thought it was a mistake. There was no way that the 40 year old quarterback, who led the Seattle Seahawks to the Super Bowl in 2005, ten whole years ago, when he was already a veteran player, could still be in the league, could he? He is. And now he’s starting for the Indianapolis Colts thanks to a lacerated kidney to Andrew Luck. So far, the super-veteran is 3-0 and looking just fine in a Colts uniform. Hooray for old guys!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45, Philadelphia Eagles 17

Line: The Chip Kelly unemployment watch is officially on.

What it means: Chip Kelly, the coach and general manager of the Philadelphia Eagles, has been a polarizing figure throughout his entire NFL career. First the question was whether his college football system would work in the NFL. Then, once he had proven that it would basically work, the question became his increasingly weird personnel moves. His trades and free agent signings were so odd that some of his former players suggested they were racially motivated. Whatever the motivation, they don’t seem to have worked and soon, Kelly may be out of a job.

Kansas City Chiefs 33, San Diego Chargers 3

Line: The Chargers can’t get to Los Angeles soon enough.

What it means: The Chargers are one of three teams rumored to be moving to Los Angeles in the near future. The Chargers are the only of the three whose play this year seems affected by the rumors. The fans in San Diego are upset and the players seem to be too. Nothing is going right for this franchise, and losing 33 to 3 to the Chiefs isn’t going to help.

Green Bay Packers 30, Minnesota Vikings 13

Line: R-e-l-a-x r-e-d-u-x!

What it means: In the middle of last year’s NFL season, the Packers were struggling and their fan-base was in a state of worried excitement. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers told them to relax and actually spelled the word out for them. This year seems like a photocopy of the same scenario. The Packers had lost three games in a row before this one and put a serious fright into their fans. Rodgers didn’t tell them to relax this year but he might as well have. He was masterful in this victory.

San Francisco 49ers 13, Seattle Seahawks 29

Line: Unless you’re a fan of the Seahawks (or zombies,) this season is like a zombie movie. They just won’t die.

What it means: The Seahawks have been the most powerful team over the past two years, going to the Super Bowl in both seasons and winning once. This year, they’ve played poorly enough to be left for dead several times. But just like the bad guy in a zombie movie, they keep walking and moving toward their goal, which in this case is playoffs, not brains, but still.

Arizona Cardinals 34, Cincinnati Bengals 31

Line: Okay, the Bengals still didn’t win in primetime, but did they play well enough to banish the monkey?

What it means: Don’t worry, “banish the monkey” is not any kind of sports phrase that you should know. Here’s the deal. The Cincinnati Bengals have been a consistently excellent team over the past four years. Their only problem has been that they seem to have some kind of mental blocks in big games. They can’t seem to win in the playoffs or even at night in the regular season, when the games are on a bigger stage because they’re televised nationally. Last night was another opportunity to shed that reputation and they came very close to doing it. It’s not clear whether coming close against a very good team is enough to make them and their fans relax in the next big game.

How to plan for the week of Nov 23-29, 2015

If you are a sports fan or if you live with a sports fan then your weekly schedule becomes inextricably linked with what sporting events are on at what times during each week. The conflict between missing a sporting event for a poorly committed to social event and missing an appealing social event to watch a game is an important balancing act in any kind of romantic, familial, or business relationship between a sports fan and a non-sports fan. To help facilitate this complicated advanced mathematics, Dear Sports Fan has put together a table showing the most important sporting events of the upcoming week. Print it out, put it on your fridge, and go through it with your scheduling partner.

For detail on the all-popular, all-powerful NFL, which groups most of its games on Sunday afternoons, see our NFL Forecast. You can also get daily updates from our NHL forecast and NBA forecast.

Download a full-size copy here.

Monday: It’s a big day for Boston. Their beloved Patriots play against the Buffalo Bills with their undefeated season on the line. Meanwhile, Celtics fans will be watching the college basketball game between Marquette and LSU and drooling over the thought of adding LSU’s Ben Simmons to their squad next year.

Tuesday: Good double-headers in soccer and basketball. Our soccer fare involves some three very well-known teams — Roma and Barcelona, who play each other, and Arsenal who play a less internationally known team from Croatia, Dinamo Zagreb. Later on, the Atlanta Hawks play the Boston Celtics followed by the Golden State Warriors beating the Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points.

Wednesday: Over in Europe, the Champions League returns and the games to watch both involve teams from Manchester. Man United plays against the Dutch team, PSV Eindhoven while Man City faces the Italian powerhouse, Juventus. Back in the United States, we’ve got some women’s college volleyball and a doozy of an NHL hockey game.

Thursday: Happy Thanksgiving! As you probably know, Thanksgiving is all about family. And food. AND FOOTBALL. Enjoy the day, however you choose to celebrate!

Friday: Two sports are trying to get in on the fun of the day-after-Thanksgiving: college football and hockey. If you want to spend all day watching these two sports instead of shopping frantically, you can! Start with Navy vs. Houston at noon, switch over to hockey with the Boston Bruins and New York Rangers at 1 p.m. on NBC. Stay there for at least the start of the Chicago Blackhawks vs. Anaheim Ducks, and then complete the sandwich by switching back to college football with TCU vs. Baylor. Also, have some left over turkey.

Saturday: Someone decided to put all the best college football rivalries on a single day and today is the day. Ohio State vs. Michigan, USC vs. UCLA, Florida vs. Florida State, Stanford vs. Notre Dame, and Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma are all great college football games. It’s almost too much of a good thing.

Sunday: Talking about too much of a good thing, that’s what you get when you add two Major League Soccer semifinal games and the Canadian Football League’s championship game to the normal Sunday NFL games. Sheesh!

Caveat — This forecast is optimized for the general sports fan, not a particular sports fan. As such, your mileage may vary. For instance, you or the sports fan in your life is a fan of a particular team, then a regular season MLB baseball game or MLS soccer game may be more important on a particular day than anything on the forecast above. Use the calendar as a way to facilitate conversation about scheduling, not as the last word on when there are sports to watch.

How to plan for the week of Nov 16-22, 2015

If you are a sports fan or if you live with a sports fan then your weekly schedule becomes inextricably linked with what sporting events are on at what times during each week. The conflict between missing a sporting event for a poorly committed to social event and missing an appealing social event to watch a game is an important balancing act in any kind of romantic, familial, or business relationship between a sports fan and a non-sports fan. To help facilitate this complicated advanced mathematics, Dear Sports Fan has put together a table showing the most important sporting events of the upcoming week. Print it out, put it on your fridge, and go through it with your scheduling partner.

For detail on the all-popular, all-powerful NFL, which groups most of its games on Sunday afternoons, see our NFL Forecast.

Download a full-size copy here.

Monday: This first leg of the Ireland vs. Bosnia Herzegovina Euro 2016 qualifying playoff (say that ten times fast) ended in a 1-1 tie that you could barely see on television through the pea soup-thick fog. This game will decide which country qualifies for the most prestigious tournament either is likely to qualify for in the near future. The University of Connecticut women’s basketball team doesn’t need to worry about qualifying for things, they usually just win them. They’ll play an early season game against Ohio State. In the evening, the Monday night football game is likely to be a bit lopsided. Skip it, or watch it on an incline.

Tuesday: If you like soccer, today is going to be a fine day to call out of work and post up in front of the television. One of Sweden and Denmark will be celebrating, one will be walking quietly away and hoping no one notices. England hosts France for what is likely to be the most moving and most friendly of soccer games ever. Hard to imagine watching (much less playing in) that game without thinking about the attacks in France last week, some of which were aimed at a stadium where the French soccer team was playing Germany. In the evening, the U.S. Men’s National Team plays their second World Cup Qualifying match. They won their first one easily but this should be a tougher test.

Wednesday: 

Thursday: The Thursday night game in the NFL this week is kind of a dud. Oh sure, the Titans and Jaguars will still get a higher rating than anything short of an unscheduled moon walk but it’s not a promising matchup as far as these things go. Luckily, there are other things to watch — fun college football and basketball games and some tennis.

Friday: Date night! Get your sports viewing out of the way early today, starting with college basketball and brunch! If you don’t have that luxury, there’s more college basketball in the evening, featuring perennial tournament teams: Duke, VCU, Wisconsin, and Georgetown.

Saturday: Even for a fall saturday, this set of games is impressive. College football matches up some of its best teams, like Ohio State and Michigan State, TCU and Oklahoma. Soccer matches up some of its best in the world, with Liverpool and Manchester City playing in the British Premier League and Barcelona and Real Madrid meeting for another edition of El Clasico.

Sunday: Yes, there’s a full slate of NFL games. And on top of that, Major League soccer has the first leg of their semifinals. And, if you needed more excitement, NASCAR’s playoffs culminate with a race in Miami. But, with all that action, the most interesting sporting event of the day is not on TV — it’s a hurling exhibition at Fenway Park. Get your tickets today!

Caveat — This forecast is optimized for the general sports fan, not a particular sports fan. As such, your mileage may vary. For instance, you or the sports fan in your life is a fan of a particular team, then a regular season MLB baseball game or MLS soccer game may be more important on a particular day than anything on the forecast above. Use the calendar as a way to facilitate conversation about scheduling, not as the last word on when there are sports to watch.