Happy New Year 2016 from Dear Sports Fan

Happy New Year!!

2015 was a wonderful year in sports and a great year for Dear Sports Fan! Thank you for being a part of this experiment with me. I feel lucky to have been able to share so much of what I was thinking about with you during the past year. Here are some of the highlights of the year. Read to the bottom for a special treat for 2016.

In February, right before the Super Bowl, I published a series of heartfelt and deeply researched articles on the topic of brain injuries in football… and also what the top ten dirtiest sounding football phrases actually mean. In March, the madness of the NCAA basketball tournaments inspired me to share four business lessons one can learn from the sport and also four ways to fill out a tournament bracket if that’s more your speed.

In May and June, I came down with a bad case of World Cup fever and wrote dozens of articles about the 2015 World Cup. My non-gendered profiles of each of the women on the U.S. Women’s National Team were popular, which I was proud of, even if some of the most common search terms for them was “is [insert player name, most frequently Megan Klingenberg] married?” I fleshed out Dear Sports Fan’s coverage of soccer in general and shaped the articles into three email courses which are still available today: Soccer 101, Soccer 201 – Positions and Logistics, and Soccer 202 – Culture. A personal high point was my trip to Montreal to watch the USA vs. Germany semifinal match.

After I moved to the Boston area in the spring, I decided to take Dear Sports Fan into the real world by starting a Meetup group. We’ve had a great time at our viewing parties, watching sports in an environment friendly to questions and welcoming to people who approach sports from all angles.

Throughout the year, I kept an eye out for moments when sports and the larger culture intersect. This has taken serious forms, like when shared my disgust with the drafting of Jameis Winston, and silly forms, like before the Kentucky Derby when I mined the world of musical theater for horse racing and betting tips, As always, the heart of the website has been a desire to make it easier for sports fans and non-fans to co-exist. With the NFL playoffs coming, it’s worth revisiting my thoughts on how a household can survive the football season without going crazy.

As one year comes to a close, another is just beginning. As a token of my appreciation for all the support I received during 2015, here is a New Year’s guide to the top 16 sporting events of 2016!

One line to fool them all – 12.28.15

Sports talk is frequently used as a common language but it’s far from universal. If you’re someone who doesn’t follow or even understand sports, you can find yourself at a disadvantage in common small-talk situations like in an elevator, waiting for a bus, sitting at a bar, or around the proverbial water cooler at work. Even if you are a sports fan, it’s impossible to watch everything and know everything. To help in these situations, we provide lines to use when engaged in a conversation about all of the high profile sporting events of the day, plus explanations of what they mean.

NFL Football

Indianapolis Colts 18, Miami Dolphins 12

Line: I hope the Colts don’t make the playoffs, but I feel awfully good for Frank Gore.

What it means: Many years ago, Frank Gore was a star running back for the University of Miami Hurricanes college football team. Today, in what was likely one of his last games in South Florida, he scored two touchdowns and helped push his team to victory. Their win means that they have not been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. I happen to think that the Colts don’t really deserve to make the playoffs this year, but I’m still happy to see Gore play well in such an emotional game.

Chicago Bears 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

Line: Hard to believe that after 15 games, the Bears are still a complete mystery. Are they good? Are they bad? Huh?

What it means: Normally, you can peg how good an NFL team is after about four or five games. This year’s Bears team is as confusing as any team I remember. They’ve won six games and lost nine, but they also seem to have had terrible luck. Are they a talented team that caught some bad breaks? Or are they dysfunctional to the core? We may never know.

Cleveland Browns 13, Kansas City Chiefs 17

Line: The Chiefs have actually clinched a playoff spot while the Broncos haven’t. How weird is that?

What it means: Although the Chiefs are behind the Denver Broncos in the standings for their four team division, thanks to the vagaries of the NFL’s tie-breaking procedures, they are guaranteed a spot in the post season but the Broncos, (who are ahead of them in the standings, for god’s sake,) are not. I guess that’s because, even if the Chiefs lose all their remaining games, the worst they could be is tied for the last wild card spot, and they would then win the tie-breaker against whoever is tied with them while the Broncos, in the same situation, might lose the tie-breaker. It’s a weird situation that will probably resolve itself on Monday night when the Broncos play the Bengals.

New England Patriots 20, New York Jets 26

Line: You think the Patriots threw this game?

What it means:  Controversy and conspiracy theories always seem to surround the New England Patriots. The idea that they intentionally lost this game to the Jets is absurd, but the loss may be beneficial. The Jets win, coupled with a loss by the Pittsburgh Steelers, may end up costing the Steelers a playoff spot. The Steelers have been the team in the Patriots’ conference that people believe is the most threatening to the Patriots…

Dallas Cowboys 6, Buffalo Bills 16

Line: Think the Cowboys wish they still had Weeden?

What it means: This is a little foreshadowing. Read on to the Texans vs. Titans game to learn more about Brandon Weeden. For now, it’s enough to know that he’s a quarterback who played well today, which is something the Cowboys didn’t have and desperately needed.

Carolina Panthers 13, Atlanta Falcons 20

Line: The Champagne corks will be popping in Miami.

What it means: The 1972 Miami Dolphins are the only team in history to go throughout an entire NFL season undefeated and win the Super Bowl. So, some obnoxious members of their team ostentatiously drink champagne each year when the last undefeated team in the league, in this case the Carolina Panthers, loses. At least they’re enjoying themselves. Unless the Champagne is only metaphorical. Please tell me it’s physical. Please?

San Francisco 49ers 17, Detroit Lions 32

Line: Maybe Blaine Gabbert is not the answer.

What it means: The San Francisco 49ers entered this season with Colin Kaepernick as their starting quarterback. Although there were some questions swirling around him, Kaepernick was still the young phenom who had led the team to the Super Bowl only a couple years ago. Certainly, he would be their leader for the next decade. Not so fast. By midseason, he was gone, and in his place played Blaine Gabbert, a former first round pick of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Things started out well for him, and some 49ers fans may have hoped their team had stumbled into something good. Now it looks like maybe Gabbert isn’t the answer at quarterback either.

Houston Texans 34, Tennessee Titans 6

Line: Brandon Weeden!!!

What it means: The Texans starting quarterback in this game was Brandon Weeden. Why is that something to holler about? Well, he’s starting for his second team this year after the Dallas Cowboys fired him just a few weeks ago. This is a rarity in the NFL and honestly, as much as people like to make fun of Weeden (mostly because his name is Weeden but also because he failed spectacularly as a young player,) it’s impressive that he could learn another team’s offense and the language they use for their plays in mid-season. He played extremely well in this game and it’s lucky for the Texans that he did, because a loss would have had disastrous consequences for their playoff hopes. As it is, they should win their division and make the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Baltimore Ravens 20

Line: Never turn your back on a rival.

What it means: The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens have had the fiercest rivalry over the past fifteen years. Games between them are always hard-hitting and often close affairs. If any one shouldn’t have been, it was this one. The Steelers came into it as one of the hottest teams in the league, while the Ravens were a mess, starting their third quarterback of the year and without their best running back or wide receiver. As you can tell from the score, things didn’t go as planned for the Steelers. They can still make the playoffs, but they’ll need help. The Ravens, on the other hand, will be laughing all throughout the offseason.

Jacksonville Jaguars 27, New Orleans Saints 38

Line: If Drew Brees is going out, he’s going out with a bang, not a whimper.

What it means: Quarterback Drew Brees has been the most visible player for the New Orleans Saints for the last decade. He led the team to a Super Bowl win and is said to have embraced and been embraced by the city like few other sports figures. There are rumors that this may be his last season with the team. If that’s true, this was his last game in New Orleans. Suffering from a foot injury that would have kept most players out of the game, he played and dominated. My guess is that he was trying to make a statement to management, reminding them what they’d be losing if they get rid of him.

St. Louis Rams 23, Seattle Seahawks 17

Line: The Seahawks too? So much for momentum.

What it means: Like the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Seahawks were one of the hottest teams in the league before this game. After a disappointing loss to a divisional opponent, the Seahawks are also not assured a playoff spot. They’re more likely to make it than the Steelers, but the loss is equally surprising, even if the consequences are less likely to come to fruition.

Green Bay Packers 8, Arizona Cardinals 38

Line: Anyone feel like betting against the Cardinals in the playoffs? As long as Carson Palmer is upright? I didn’t think so.

What it means: The Arizona Cardinals have a rare combination of excellent offense and excellent defense. Most great teams are noticeably better on one side of the ball than the other but the Cardinals are balanced and magnificent. They’ve had the potential to be this good for the last couple years, but each time, quarterback Carson Palmer has gone down with an injury and everything has unraveled. As long as Palmer is healthy, this team will be a force to reckon with, probably deep into the playoffs.

New York Giants 17, Minnesota Vikings 49

Line: This is what happens when a team that cares plays a team that doesn’t.

What it means: The New York Giants knew coming into this game that they had already been eliminated from the playoffs. The Minnesota Vikings knew that they a win would help their playoff positioning. Despite being professionals, motivation matters. As is often the case, the motivated team destroyed the unmotivated one.

How to plan for the week of Dec 28 – Jan 3, 2015/16

If you are a sports fan or if you live with a sports fan then your weekly schedule becomes inextricably linked with what sporting events are on at what times during each week. The conflict between missing a sporting event for a poorly committed to social event and missing an appealing social event to watch a game is an important balancing act in any kind of romantic, familial, or business relationship between a sports fan and a non-sports fan. To help facilitate this complicated advanced mathematics, Dear Sports Fan has put together a table showing the most important sporting events of the upcoming week. Print it out, put it on your fridge, and go through it with your scheduling partner.

For detail on the all-popular, all-powerful NFL, which groups most of its games on Sunday afternoons, see our NFL Forecast. You can also get daily updates from our NHL forecast and NBA forecast.

Download a full-size copy here.

Monday: This week is dominated by football, soccer, and basketball. It starts off with a day that features the first two — I’m a sucker for watching the military academies play football and over the past couple decades, Navy has been the best of the bunch. They play against Pittsburgh in a bowl game at 2:30. In the evening, the Monday night NFL game is a giant one. Denver and Cincinnati, two of the hottest teams in the league over the first three quarters of the season, both have something to play for. Denver has more at stake, because they could conceivably miss the playoffs if they lose, but Cincinnati wants to win to guarantee themselves a bye week and extend the time their quarterback has to heal from a broken thumb. Football, thumbs, what else could you want?

Tuesday: The most shocking thing in all of sports may be that Leicester City is at the top of the British Premier League standings — they play against Manchester City in a rare Tuesday BPL game. There’s a trio of college football bowl games to feast on, they feature another military academy, Air Force, and LSU, with its star running back, Leonard Fournette.

Wednesday: With the excitement of New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, followed quickly by the last weekend of the NFL season coming up, this could easily be a forgettable sports day. I doubt it will be. With strong college football bowl games, an excellent NHL matchup, and a classic college basketball rivalry, it’s too potentially strong to go wrong.

Thursday: Happy New Year’s Eve! Don’t do anything you would want me to tell you not to do. Or at least, don’t do anything such that if I told you not to do it, you’d actually listen. Whatever. You could just stay in and watch college football. It’s hard to underestimate how good the two college football playoff semifinal games could be. This is only the second year of there being a college football playoff and if last year was an indication, it’s going to be great! If you’re determined to be watching sports when the ball drops, the basketball game between BYU and Saint Mary’s will be on.

Friday: It’s much more plausible to watch sports all day today than it was yesterday. New Year’s Day has traditionally been dominated by college football, and there are a bunch of great options (so many, in fact, that the words spilled out of their box on my calendar.) In recent years, the NHL with its outdoor “Winter Classic” has made serious inroads and for many people that is now the main sporting attraction. This year’s game pits age old rivals, Montreal and Boston, against each other in Massachusetts’ Gillette Stadium.

Saturday: Maybe this is really the down day in the sports week. Wedged between New Year’s Day and Sunday, this Saturday doesn’t have quite as much to offer as most. Then again, it may be time to break those resolutions you made. One day is enough, surely.

Sunday: The last day of the NFL’s regular season should bring some thrills. There should still be one or two playoff spots up for grabs and playoff positioning to fight for. In other sports, there are good men and women’s college basketball to watch and some decent soccer on in the morning. Enjoy!

Caveat — This forecast is optimized for the general sports fan, not a particular sports fan. As such, your mileage may vary. For instance, you or the sports fan in your life is a fan of a particular team, then a regular season MLB baseball game or MLS soccer game may be more important on a particular day than anything on the forecast above. Use the calendar as a way to facilitate conversation about scheduling, not as the last word on when there are sports to watch.

Are sports trying to ruin Christmas?

Dear Sports Fan,

What’s up with the NFL football game on Christmas Eve and the five freaking NBA basketball games on Christmas Day? Are sports trying to ruin Christmas?

Thanks,
Bonnie


Dear Bonnie,

Sports leagues aren’t trying to ruin Christmas, but they are trying to profit off of them. At least, the National Basketball Association (NBA) is. There’s a simpler reason for why the National Football League (NFL) has a game on Christmas Eve. Christmas Eve is a Thursday this year, the NFL decided years ago to have games on Thursdays, and they’re not going to change their plans for anything, not even Christmas. The NFL’s general attitude seems to be that they are bigger than any other institution in the world, why would they worry about Christmas? As for the NBA, it’s worth a closer look at why they want to profit off of Christmas, what the model of success is, and how should we feel about it.

One of the biggest questions for most sports leagues is how to create or maintain interest during their long regular seasons. Each NBA team plays 82 games during the season; the National Hockey League (NHL) plays the same number. Major League Baseball (MLB) plays almost twice that number, a whopping 162! Football is too dangerous to play that much or that often. College football teams play from 10 to 12 games during their regular season and the NFL plays only 16. As a result, football doesn’t need to try quite as hard to sustain interest during their season. The other sports are not so lucky. Even the most die-hard fan feels a little lull of interest during the long middle of the regular season. So, leagues are always on the lookout for ways to create intrigue and interest during their season.

Ironically, the league that has been most successful at creating a spike of interest int he middle of their season has been the league that needs it the least, the NFL. As we’ve covered in great length on this site, the NFL owns Thanksgiving. Since the 1950s, when the Detroit Lions became the most common host team for Thanksgiving games, and certainly since 1970 when the Dallas Cowboys joined them and the two teams basically monopolized all of the Thanksgiving hosting, NFL football has become part and parcel of how many Americans celebrate Thanksgiving. In the past seven years, the NHL has been wildly successful in replicating the NFL’s approach on New Year’s Day with its visually breathtaking outdoor Winter Classic Games. Hockey is a less popular sport, but “owning a holiday” has still proven to be a strong tactic. The Winter Classic games are watched by between three and five million people each year — around ten times more than other regular season hockey games, even the nationally televised ones.

Interest in unique sporting events can, at times, approach levels of interest that make them seem like holidays. The first two days of the men’s college basketball tournament, called March Madness, feel like a holiday, observed by office workers everywhere who develop fake colds or schedule elective surgery so they can watch, or just stream the games onto their work computers, slowing down the network for everyone. The NBA has already had some success with this, their All-Star Weekend is only half-jokingly called “Black Thanksgiving.” Still greater success, they hope, will be found by owning a real holiday rather than creating one of their own. That’s why, each Christmas, the NBA stacks as many games between their best and biggest teams as possible. This year, it’s five games in a row and the highlight is the first game between the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers since they played in the finals last spring.

Now we get to the heart of your question — is the NBA right to do this? Does having so many (and so high-profile) basketball games televised on Christmas ruin the holiday? It doesn’t. Sure, it may ruin the holiday for players, coaches, and their families, but that’s a small segment of the population and one (since they are mostly very well compensated,) that most people don’t feel a ton of sympathy for. Aside from doctors, nurses, midwives, police, EMTs, fire fighters, and other essential workers, most of us have off on Christmas and if we don’t want our family celebrations sullied by sports on TV, we can either keep the TV off or change the channel.

Another segment of people who work on Christmas are people who work at Chinese restaurants and movie theaters too. Those are both traditional Christmas activities for people (stereotypically Jews.) That brings us to one point in favor of the NBA having games on Christmas: not everyone celebrates Christmas, and the NBA has a long history of inclusion. Back in the 1930s and 40s, professional basketball was mostly a Jewish endeavor. Even in the modern era of the NBA, three of the top ten scorers (Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O’Neill, and the #1 scorer of all time, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) of all time have been Muslim. Of all the big American sports leagues, the NBA has the most international fan base. This includes a big contingent in China, a country with around a billion non-Christians.

For people who don’t celebrate Christmas and live in a predominantly celebrating country, like the United States, the holiday can be alienating. Having a football game to watch on Christmas Eve and more than 12 hours of basketball to watch on Christmas Day is a comforting thought. If you celebrate and the games get in your way, just remember — these teams will play roughly fifty times again this season before the playoffs start. There’s really no need to give too much attention to any one game in December, no matter what the NBA wants us to do.

Thanks for reading and Happy Holidays, however you celebrate,
Ezra Fischer

One line to fool them all – 12.21.15

Sports talk is frequently used as a common language but it’s far from universal. If you’re someone who doesn’t follow or even understand sports, you can find yourself at a disadvantage in common small-talk situations like in an elevator, waiting for a bus, sitting at a bar, or around the proverbial water cooler at work. Even if you are a sports fan, it’s impossible to watch everything and know everything. To help in these situations, we provide lines to use when engaged in a conversation about all of the high profile sporting events of the day, plus explanations of what they mean.

NFL Football

Kansas City Chiefs 34, Baltimore Ravens 14

Line: I guess everyone likes Jamaal Charles too much to say it, but this team is experiencing a classic Ewing Theory season.

What it means: The Ewing Theory is a creation of sports columnist Bill Simmons. His idea is that when a team loses its best player, they sometimes counter-intuitively play better than when they had him or her. In the case of the Chiefs, they had won only one game and lost four when their star running back, Jamaal Charles, was lost for the season to an injury. Since then, they’ve only lost one game and won seven!

Houston Texans 16, Indianapolis Colts 10

Line: What a year for Brandon Weeden!

What it means: Brandon Weeden was once a high draft pick of the Cleveland Browns. He was a disaster there and slunk away to fulfill his destiny as a player obviously not good enough to be a starter — being a backup quarterback. He started this year on the Dallas Cowboys and took over for them when their starting quarterback, Tony Romo, broke his collarbone. After a few games of seeing Weeden as a starter, the Cowboys realized what the Browns had and cut him. Just a few weeks later, when the Houston Texans needed a backup quarterback, they signed Weeden (maybe just because he was in the neighborhood?) When their starting quarterback in this game, T.J. Yates, injured his knee, in came Brandon Weeden to lead the Texans to a major victory. With only two games to go, Weeden and his new team are a game ahead of the other teams for the lead in their division. He could get to the playoffs… if he doesn’t get cut first.

Tennessee Titans 16, New England Patriots 33

Line: Looks like the Patriots won their scrimmage pretty easily.

What it means: This wasn’t a very competitive game. The Patriots are one of the NFL’s top five teams and the Titans are easily one of the league’s worst.

Buffalo Bills 25, Washington Redskins 35

Line: This game wasn’t as close as the score would suggest.

What it means:  How can the score of a game, which is measured primarily by score, be deceptive? Well, in this case, Washington was up 28-3, a near unassailable lead, before they let their opponent score their first touchdown of the game. The Bills got a few more scores late in the game, but only after the result was basically a fait accompli.

Chicago Bears 17, Minnesota Vikings 38

Line: Uh… According to one way of looking at things,Teddy Bridgewater had the best game a quarterback has had since 1964.

What it means: An NFL employee named Randall Liu noted today that the quarterback of the Vikings, Teddy Bridgewater was the first quarterback since 1964 to complete 85% of his passes, pass for four touchdowns, run for one, and avoid throwing any interceptions. Realistically, it’s the running for one that makes this such a rare feat — quarterbacks don’t usually run for touchdowns — but that doesn’t lessen the impact. Bridgewater had a hell of a day!

Carolina Panthers 38, New York Giants 35

Line: What is it with the Giants and undefeated teams?? I guess they’ll win the Super Bowl now.

What it means: In 2007, the New England Patriots were 15-0 going into their last regular season game, which happened to be against the New York Giants. Although the Patriots won, 38-35, the Giants gave them a much tougher game than expected. Both teams made the playoffs and eventually met in the Super Bowl, where the Giants upset the Patriots. The Panthers were undefeated coming into this game, and remain undefeated after winning it. Still, there’s something eerily similar about the scenario, right down to the score…

Atlanta Falcons 23, Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Line: Somehow this one loss for the Jaguars sucks as much for them as the previous six did for the Falcons.

What it means: The NFL gives an automatic playoff spot to the team in each four-team division that ends the year with the best record. The Falcons are in the same division as the undefeated Carolina Panthers, so you felt they were fated not to win the division even before they lost six games in a row. The Jaguars, even though they have a worse record overall than the Falcons, were still in contention for winning their division before this game. That’s why losing this game hurt Jaguars fans so badly.

Green Bay Packers 30, Oakland Raiders 20

Line: Not a bad football game, for one played in the shower.

What it means: Rain doesn’t normally effect the play of professional football players. Usually, only a few inches of snow on the field or high winds have a noticeable effect. This was an exception. Judging only from what I could see on television, there seemed to be a perpetual fine drizzle that soaked the field and the football, and made it very difficult for anyone on either team to do what they were trying to do. In the end, the more experienced team won.

Cleveland Browns 13, Seattle Seahawks 30

Line: Who let the Seahawks find a way to claim that they’re under-appreciated again this year?

What it means: One of the favorite motivating tactics for sports team is to claim that “nobody believes in us.” For some reason, this seems to be an extremely effective message to rally around. It also helps that virtually every team can claim it’s true — all they have to do is find a few newspaper columnists or bloggers to latch onto. The Seahawks ought to have been the exception to this rule, having been to two straight Super Bowls and won one of them. Who would be crazy enough not to believe that they can do it again? Thanks to a very slow start, they suckered a few critics in (myself included) and now they have the high ground of external disbelief.

Cincinnati Bengals 24, San Francisco 49ers 14

Line: No Dalton, no Eifert, no problem.

What it means: The Cincinnati Bengals were having a dream season, winning most of their games and seeming like a shoe-in for the playoffs, before last week. Then, in the span of a few minutes, they lost their starting quarterback, Andy Dalton, to a fractured thumb, and one of their best pass catchers, Tyler Eifert, to a concussion. It may catch up to them, but it didn’t in this game against the 49ers. The Bengals won easily and clinched a spot in the playoffs.

Denver Broncos 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 34

Line: Can we see this game again in three weeks?

What it means: This was one of the best games of the year — a back and forth game played with skill and nerve by both team’s offensive and defensive units. There is a chance that these two teams could meet in the first round of the playoffs, three weeks from now. If they do, it would be a wonderful encore to a wonderful game.

Miami Dolphins 14, San Diego Chargers 30

Line: Good to see Rivers and the Chargers go out with a win, if this really is the end.

What it means: The San Diego Chargers are one of three teams rumored to be moving to Los Angeles next year. If they do move, this game will be their last in San Diego. Things haven’t been good or fun for the Chargers and their fans this year, but they’ve had a good run with quarterback Phillip Rivers over the past eleven seasons. Although he’s never been able to lead the team to a Super Bowl, it certainly hasn’t been from a lack of effort or skill. I’m glad Rivers and company were able to give the home fans one last thing to cheer about while they were busy protesting the team’s impending move.

Arizona Cardinals 40, Philadelphia Eagles 17

Line: Hope you had David Johnson on your fantasy team… or at least weren’t going against him.

What it means: Week 15, the current week of the NFL season, is also usually the finals or semifinals of most fantasy football leagues. Why do the fantasy football playoffs fall before the NFL playoffs? Read this. Cardinals rookie running back, David Johnson, swung a lot of important fantasy matches with his outsized real life contribution to the Cardinals win: 187 yards rushing, 42 yards receiving, and three touchdowns. In most scoring systems, that’s close to 40 points — four times an acceptable day for a running back and twice a very good day. That’s enough to swing most fantasy playoff games he was involved in.

How to plan for the week of Dec 21-27, 2015

If you are a sports fan or if you live with a sports fan then your weekly schedule becomes inextricably linked with what sporting events are on at what times during each week. The conflict between missing a sporting event for a poorly committed to social event and missing an appealing social event to watch a game is an important balancing act in any kind of romantic, familial, or business relationship between a sports fan and a non-sports fan. To help facilitate this complicated advanced mathematics, Dear Sports Fan has put together a table showing the most important sporting events of the upcoming week. Print it out, put it on your fridge, and go through it with your scheduling partner.

For detail on the all-popular, all-powerful NFL, which groups most of its games on Sunday afternoons, see our NFL Forecast. You can also get daily updates from our NHL forecast and NBA forecast.

Download a full-size copy here.

Monday: This week is dominated by football. College football bowl games, like today’s between Western Kentucky and South Florida, abound. The NFL, which dominates the schedule all fall, tries to sneak in even a few more games at the end of the season. Meanwhile, other sports like soccer, back off a bit. Today’s soccer game between Arsenal and Manchester City is one of the last major televised soccer games until after Christmas.

Tuesday: Before the NHL starts its three day holiday break, catch a very good double-header on NBC Sports Network. The early game features one of the top teams in the league, the Montreal Canadiens. The second game is a fierce rivalry game between the Los Angeles Kings and their in-state rivals, the San Jose Sharks.

Wednesday: With all the college football bowl games on the calendar, it’s hard to know which ones to make time for. If you have to choose, I would choose today’s two games. The games between Boise State and Northern Illinois and Georgia Southern and Bowling Green are the best of college football. These programs aren’t so big to be completely corrupted by the sport’s hypocrisy and they’re all so used to winning that the games should be very competitive.

Thursday: For all of the NFL football fans out there who also celebrate Christmas, it’s a small but much appreciated blessing that the game tonight is meaningless. There’s really no need to watch the Raiders play the Chargers but if you’re just hanging out at home, eagerly anticipating tomorrow’s Chinese food, you could spend three hours in worse ways.

Friday: Merry Christmas to all who celebrate. The NBA long-ago decided that they wanted to be the Dos Equis of Christmas — you don’t have to watch sports on Christmas, but if you do, you watch the NBA. This year there’s a quintuple header, starting at 12 p.m. ET and ending around 1:30 a.m. ET. The highlight will be a re-match of last year’s finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors. That’s enough to make the Christmas celebrators jealous!

Saturday: Boxing Day brings a minor return to normalcy — there’s British soccer in the morning and early afternoon, there’s a great college basketball game, and an excellent NHL hockey game in the evening. The NFL game between Washington and Philadelphia is a vital one for both teams.

Sunday: Well now. I guess none of the other sports want to mess with the NFL today. There’s basically no competition to the 1,000 pound gorilla sports league. Check out our NFL forecast for more information about which games to watch.

Caveat — This forecast is optimized for the general sports fan, not a particular sports fan. As such, your mileage may vary. For instance, you or the sports fan in your life is a fan of a particular team, then a regular season MLB baseball game or MLS soccer game may be more important on a particular day than anything on the forecast above. Use the calendar as a way to facilitate conversation about scheduling, not as the last word on when there are sports to watch.

One line to fool them all – 12.14.15

Sports talk is frequently used as a common language but it’s far from universal. If you’re someone who doesn’t follow or even understand sports, you can find yourself at a disadvantage in common small-talk situations like in an elevator, waiting for a bus, sitting at a bar, or around the proverbial water cooler at work. Even if you are a sports fan, it’s impossible to watch everything and know everything. To help in these situations, we provide lines to use when engaged in a conversation about all of the high profile sporting events of the day, plus explanations of what they mean.

NFL Football

Detroit Lions 14, St. Louis Rams 21

Line: We’ve gotten to the point in the NFL season when there are games no one cares about, not even fans of the teams involved. This was one of them.

What it means: Okay, sure, maybe some of the fans of these teams cared about this game. Surely, the players and their families at least cared about getting through the game without injury. But with both teams either mathematically eliminated from playoff contention or all but, this was at its heart, an uninteresting affair.

Atlanta Falcons 0, Carolina Panthers 38

Line: Soul searching time for the Falcons.

What it means: The year started out so well for both of these teams, who play in the same division. After five weeks, both teams were undefeated. Heading into this game, the Panthers were still undefeated but the Falcons had lost all but one of the intervening games. That’s a bewildering fall from grace and being shut out by a division rival won’t help anything. It’s hard to think of anyone on the coaching or managerial staff whose job is or should be safe.

Washington Redskins 24, Chicago Bears 21

Line: And that’s why we still call it football. Two games in a row for the Bears.

What it means: The Chicago Bears have now lost two games in a row thanks in large part to their field goal kicker, Robbie Gould, missing two late-game field goals last week and this week. In this game, the Bears had a chance to tie the game in the last minute but couldn’t get it closer than the 32 yard line before turning to Gould to make a 50 yard field goal. That should be within his range, but he kicked it wide. This leaves Washington still in first place of their division and Chicago eliminated.

Buffalo Bills 20, Philadelphia Eagles 23

Line: Doesn’t it seem like Rex Ryan’s teams always kill themselves with penalties in big games?

What it means:  This was a big game for both teams in terms of playoff positioning, but it was also an emotional game thanks to a blockbuster trade between the two teams during the offseason which left hard feelings on both sides. The Buffalo Bills coach, Rex Ryan, is said to believe in encouraging his players’ emotions. Sometimes this works well — it may give them confidence they wouldn’t otherwise have — but it can also backfire if the players get too emotional to play well. One sign of that is the total number of penalties the team takes. The Bills took 15 penalties, which is an enormous and damaging number, in this game.

San Francisco 49ers 10, Cleveland Browns 24

Line: Johnny Manziel, blah blah blah.

What it means: Television networks and other sports media outlets love to make a big deal about Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel, who has been in and out of the starting lineup as many times as he’s been in and out of trouble with his team and in and out of rehab. Alcoholism is no joke, but it’s also not a particularly compelling story, especially when tied to a team as bad as the Browns. Boring!

New Orleans Saints 24, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Line: Brees and Peyton playing out the string may still be better than the Buccaneers trying to make the playoffs.

What it means: This season will probably be the end of an era for the most successful coach/quarterback combination in New Orleans Saints history. Coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees have been together for a decade and were able to win a Super Bowl in their time in New Orleans. Now Brees is getting old and Peyton seems to have lost his edge. Most people expect Peyton to be fired or to leave voluntarily during the offseason. Brees may stay, but his time is certainly limited at this point. Still, for one day at least, the old guys had enough in their box of tricks to beat the up and coming Buccaneers. Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes were severely reduced by losing this game.

Seattle Seahawks 35, Baltimore Ravens 6

Line: It’s old hat by now, but the Seahawks are in the playoffs and you don’t want to see your team playing them.

What it means: After a 2-4 early season start, the Seahawks have only lost a single game. Thanks to this convincing win, they’ve clinched a spot in the playoffs. They’ll try to make the Super Bowl for the third straight year, something they’re giving every signal currently of being good enough to do. If you’re a fan of another team, the last thing you want to see is the Seahawks as your team’s opponent in the playoffs.

San Diego Chargers 3, Kansas City Chiefs 10

Line: The first chink in the Chiefs armor in many weeks. They almost let the Chargers tie this game in the last minute.

What it means: Like the Seahawks, the Chiefs have looked to be a team that started out slow but has been rounding into shape as one of the best teams in the league. There’s a cliche that suggests that it’s a good sign when a team wins despite not playing their best, but Chiefs fans would still like to have seen their team look more convincing. The Chargers are one of the most injured, and therefore worst teams in the league.

Indianapolis Colts 16, Jacksonville Jaguars 51

Line: It’s hard to say which division is worse, the AFC South or the NFC East. At 5-8, the Jags may still have a shot at the playoffs.

What it means: The best team in a division in each of the NFL’s eight divisions gets an automatic place in the playoffs. That makes it really noticeable when a division has four sub-par teams. That’s true for two divisions this year, the high-profile NFC East, and the division both these teams are in, the AFC South. If the Texans lose against the Patriots tonight, no team in the AFC South will have a winning record, and the 5-8 Jaguars will only be one game out of first place.

Tennessee Titans 8, New York Jets 30

Line: A win the Jets had to have, and had to have comfortably to feel good about.

What it means: The Jets are currently in the playoffs. They are one of three teams, along with the Steelers and Chiefs, to have an 8-5 record. Given how the Chiefs and Steelers are playing, the Jets may need to win all their remaining games to make the playoffs. That’s a big task, given their upcoming opponents, but their fans were given confidence by how easily the team beat the Titans today. A close win, while just as good for the quantifiable standings, would have felt qualitatively way, way worse.

Pittsburgh Steelers 33, Cincinnati Bengals 20

Line: The Bengals lost a whole lot more than just the game today.

What it means: In the first ten minutes of this game, the Cincinnati Bengals lost their starting tight end for the game with a concussion and their starting quarterback with a fractured thumb on his throwing hand. Losing to the Steelers is never fun, but the real panic among Bengals fans surrounds the loss of these two key players to injury.

Oakland Raiders 15, Denver Broncos 12

Line: Now the Broncos will really have a controversy on their hands.

What it means: As long as legendary quarterback Peyton Manning was injured OR the Broncos kept winning without him, the team was insulated from having a difficult and controversial decision to make. With this loss, the controversy will begin. Although privately, the Broncos probably still think that Brock Osweiler is a better fit (i.e. he takes orders from the coaches and doesn’t make as many brutal mistakes) for the team than Manning, it will be interesting to see how firmly they hold to that conviction.

Dallas Cowboys 7, Green Bay Packers 28

Line: I know I’ve said this about a dozen times before, but this time, I think the Cowboys season is really over.

What it means: The Cowboys inability to win football games this year has almost been matched by the inability of any of the other teams in their division to win. So much so, that each time we were ready to write the Cowboys off, they’d get some help in the standings from all the other teams losing as well. Now, finally, with the Cowboys two games back of the division lead with only two games to go, we can truly say that they’re done.

New England Patriots 27, Houston Texans 6

Line: It’s hard to believe that the NFL is improving on concussions when one of the quarterbacks in a nationally televised game gets obviously concussed, goes back in the game for two more possessions, fumbles twice, and only then is taken out of the game.

What it means: The NFL is supposed to have improved their ability to identify concussions and respond appropriately to them by getting the injured player out of the game and keeping him out. In this game, it was pretty obvious to television viewers that Texans quarterback Brian Hoyer was stunned after a hit. He went back into the game but kept messing things up (no surprise if he had actually injured his brain.)

How to plan for the week of Dec 14-20, 2015

If you are a sports fan or if you live with a sports fan then your weekly schedule becomes inextricably linked with what sporting events are on at what times during each week. The conflict between missing a sporting event for a poorly committed to social event and missing an appealing social event to watch a game is an important balancing act in any kind of romantic, familial, or business relationship between a sports fan and a non-sports fan. To help facilitate this complicated advanced mathematics, Dear Sports Fan has put together a table showing the most important sporting events of the upcoming week. Print it out, put it on your fridge, and go through it with your scheduling partner.

For detail on the all-popular, all-powerful NFL, which groups most of its games on Sunday afternoons, see our NFL Forecast. You can also get daily updates from our NHL forecast and NBA forecast.

Download a full-size copy here.

Monday: The story of British soccer this season has been the precipitous fall of last year’s champion, Chelsea. After 15 games, they’re in 15th place out of 20 teams. That’s frankly absurd given how much more money Chelsea has to spend on players than the other teams around them in the standings. Today they’ll try to get back on track against Leicester City. Leicester has been the exact mirror image of Chelsea so far. After climbing out of last place at the end of last season, they’re a surprise second place so far this year. In the NFL, the Giants and Dolphins both still have hopes of making the playoffs but they won’t anymore (or at least not if they are rational) if they lose this game.

Tuesday: Today’s calendar looks like an NHL hockey sandwich, with men’s college basketball as the bread. Delicious.

Wednesday: The U.S. Women’s National Soccer team continues its interminable victory tour tonight with a friendly against their once and future rival. China. The Pittsburgh Penguins will be interesting to watch as they take on the Boston Bruins less than a week after firing their coach.

Thursday: Catch a preview of the NCAA women’s volleyball finals by watching both semifinals on ESPN2. Catch a potential preview of the NBA championships by watching Oklahoma City vs. Cleveland on TNT. Catch a preview of… absolutely nothing by watching the NFL game between St. Louis vs. Tampa Bay on NFL Network.

Friday: Date night! Celebrate the little guys by watching the Division III football championships. Or just lounge around and watch a very good NBA double-header on ESPN.

Saturday: The college football bowl season begins with a full slate of games. The general quality of the games gets better over time, so the first day is usually nothing to write home about. In this case, some of the bowls at least feature geographic rivalries. The women’s NCAA volleyball championship is on ESPN2 and will be worth checking out. In hockey, two of the top teams this year, Montreal and Dallas, play one of only two games against each other this year. The NFL colonizes Saturdays with a moderately interesting game between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets.

Sunday: Even more now than ever, because of the impending real life playoffs and the current fantasy football playoffs, the NFL rules the day. If you’re looking for non-football sports to watch, you do have some excellent options. There are two watchable British soccer games in the morning, a trio of college basketball games, men’s and women’s in the afternoon and evening, and little bits of cycling and figure skating as a bonus!

Caveat — This forecast is optimized for the general sports fan, not a particular sports fan. As such, your mileage may vary. For instance, you or the sports fan in your life is a fan of a particular team, then a regular season MLB baseball game or MLS soccer game may be more important on a particular day than anything on the forecast above. Use the calendar as a way to facilitate conversation about scheduling, not as the last word on when there are sports to watch.

Why do once in a generation things happen so often in sports?

Dear Sports Fan,

My girlfriend convinced me to watch a Golden State Warriors game last night by saying that teams as good as them only come along once every twenty or thirty years. I watched the game. They were legitimately great but it seems like sports fans have something they need to watch for that reason pretty frequently. Why do once in a generation things happen so often in sports?

Thanks,
Cesar


Dear Cesar,

The Golden State Warriors are a magnificent basketball team. They won the championship last spring and, unlike many championship winning teams, have started this season strong. They’ve won their first 23 games. In doing so, they obliterated the previous record for consecutive wins to start a season, which two other teams had set at 15. They’re closing in on the Los Angeles Lakers record for wins in a row, (any time during the season,) which is 33 and has been since the 1971-72 season. Their start also has the folks over at Five Thirty Eight frantically modeling to see how likely it is that the Warriors match or beat the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls season record of 72 wins and 10 losses. The conclusion they come to is that the Warriors certainly can but will probably choose not to, since breaking that record is likely to be a harmful distraction from their true goal of winning another championship. The Warriors streak is so impressive, that the Harlem Globetrotters (who were once a very real, very formidable competitive basketball team but who now only play exhibition games against a team of stooges called the Washington Generals,) jokingly worried on Twitter about the safety of their own “record”:

Beyond numbers, the Warriors are a wonderful collection of characters to root for. Their super star, Steph Curry, is barely big enough to make you look twice at him if he passed you on the street, and yet he’s as unstoppable a force as any the NBA has known. He is the best long-range shooter in NBA history and plays with a fluid, captivating style. He’s surrounded by teammates who benefit from and augment his skills. Klay Thompson, who pales in comparison to Curry, may also be one of the top 20 shooters in NBA history. Draymond Green was a popular college basketball player who most thought would not amount to much in the pros. Now he’s the new prototype for a power forward, one who can do a little bit of everything well enough to be extraordinarily effective. The next five best players on the team, Andrew Bogut, Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livington, and Festus Ezeli all have their own talents and their own attractive stories. From a sports fan’s perspective, the Warriors really are a comet passing through space: rare and wondrous. To give you a sense of how much people want to see them, their presence as the away team playing against the Boston Celtics this Friday has launched tickets on the secondary market from starting at between $13 and $20 to starting between $150 and $200.

Your question wasn’t about whether the Warriors were amazing, it was about how rare they are. There’s a saying I love: “You’re one in a million… which means there’s a thousand people just like you in China.” One in a million seems like a giant rarity, but not when viewed against a country with a population of over a billion! The same thing is true about sports. Say the Warriors truly are a generational team. That would put them alongside the Chicago Bulls that set that 72-10 record in 1996. That’s awfully convenient, because it was 20 years ago, exactly the number most people use in estimating a generation. Go back farther, and most people point to the 1985 Celtics as another generationally good team. That’s only 10 years before the Bulls, but that’s okay, sometimes data falls randomly in clumps. No big deal. The thing is, sports fans follow many sports. Most fans follow at least three of the big four American professional leagues (NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL) pretty closely. Add a college sport or two, international competitions like the Olympics and World Cup, as well as a few individual sports like tennis, golf, boxing, or car racing. That’s close to 10 sports that a fan will follow. The chances of a generational event (one every 20 years) happening in a sport, if you follow 10 of them, is 50% in any given year.

Of course, when something this eventful happens in a sport a fan doesn’t follow closely, there’s a good chance that she’ll hear about it on Twitter, Facebook, Sports Center, from a podcast or a friend, etc. And anything so magnificent, so rare, as a generational sporting event is worth following, even from an unusual sport! There are also two or three close calls for every one truly generational event (the Carolina Panthers are 12-0 in the NFL right now… if they get to 16-0, they will be only the second team to ever do it. Earlier this year Serena Williams almost became the first person to win all four major tennis tournaments in a year – called the Grand Slam – since 1988). So, if you’re a sports fan who wants to see something with the potential to be truly remarkable, you’ve legitimately got a chance to watch one every couple of months at most.

Thanks for reading,
Ezra Fischer

 

One line to fool them all – 12.7.15

Sports talk is frequently used as a common language but it’s far from universal. If you’re someone who doesn’t follow or even understand sports, you can find yourself at a disadvantage in common small-talk situations like in an elevator, waiting for a bus, sitting at a bar, or around the proverbial water cooler at work. Even if you are a sports fan, it’s impossible to watch everything and know everything. To help in these situations, we provide lines to use when engaged in a conversation about all of the high profile sporting events of the day, plus explanations of what they mean.

NFL Football

Texans 21, Bills 30

Line: Neither team is all that good, but the Bills needed this one more.

What it means: After this game, both teams have won six games and lost six. The difference is that the Bills are in the same division as the 10-2 New England Patriots, and therefore will need to get a wildcard spot to make the playoffs. The Texans are tied for the best record in their division with the Indianapolis Colts and are therefore still very much in a good position to claim a playoff spot by winning their division title.

Ravens 13, Dolphins 15

Line: It’s hard to admit for Ravens fans, but they’re probably better off having lost this game.

What it means: The Ravens have been a consistently good team over the past decade. This year, they couldn’t get things together and then, while they were falling apart, they broke. What does that mean? Well, they weren’t winning many games and then all their good players got injured. Now, it’s probably best for them to lose their remaining games and get the best draft pick in this year’s draft as possible.

Bengals 37, Browns 3

Line: I guess the common/uncommon opponents theory of the Bengals doesn’t hold for the Browns.

What it means: The Bengals have been an excellent team for most of this season. Some smart football analyst out there noticed though, that when they struggle, it’s often in games against teams that are used to playing them, especially if they have played them recently. The Browns, who are in the same division as the Bengals, and who have already played them this year, are a perfect example of a common opponent, who the Bengals might struggle against. The only problem? The Browns aren’t very good. Sometimes the even simpler answer is the correct one.

49ers 26, Bears 20

Line: Oh 49ers fans, Blaine Gabbert is doing just enough to reel them in.

What it means:  The 49ers have had an incredibly bad season. They lost their coach and several important defensive players before the season. They benched their starting quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, part of the way through the season, and will probably let him leave as a free agent this summer. You’d think they would be looking for a new young quarterback in the draft but the backup quarterback, a guy named Blaine Gabbert who failed spectacularly with his previous team, has done just enough that the 49ers might be able to convince themselves to trust him with their future. It probably won’t end well.

Jaguars 39, Titans 42

Line: Whoa! Dear Sports Fan’s NFL Forecast was right!

What it means: When the formulas that run my NFL Forecast told me that this game was going to be one of the top games of the week, I thought seriously about arguing with it. “No way,” I thought. These teams suck! Suck they may, but apparently they are bad in ways that match up perfectly to create an entertaining football game. These teams play in the same division, so with luck, we’ll see lots of similarly exciting games in the future from them.

Seahawks 38, Vikings 7

Line: Uh oh, the Seahawks appear to have returned.

What it means: The Seahawks have made the Super Bowl in the past two seasons, winning two years ago and losing last year on a fluky play right at the end of the game. From their poor play at the start of this season, it seemed like they were not going to be returning for a third year. Now, after a dominant win against a very good team, the Seahawks have

Jets 23, Giants 20

Line: This one was way more than the battle of New York.

What it means: The easy narrative about this game is that it was a rare (once every four years) game between the two teams who claim to be from New York and play in New Jersey. Neither of these teams cared about that narrative. The game was too important to both teams in terms of their chance to win their division (Giants) or make the playoffs as a wildcard (Jets.) The Jets win gives a significant boost to their playoff chances.

Cardinals 27, Rams 3

Line: Ho, hum.

What it means: Nothing to see here, really. A dominant team beat a team they were expected to beat. The world continues to turn.

Falcons 19, Buccaneers 23

Line: Ugh. I guess it’s time to admit that Jameis Winston is good at football.

What it means: The number one overall pick from this year’s draft, Jameis Winston, the quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, is an impossible player to root for. Alas, that doesn’t mean he’s bad at football. Apparently, he’s actually pretty good at it. Damn.

Broncos 17, Chargers 3

Line: Doesn’t look like Peyton Manning’s getting his job back.

What it means: With every Broncos win under understudy quarterback Brock Osweiler’s leadership, the odds of once-legendary quarterback Peyton Manning getting his job back get longer and longer. Longer odds mean something is less likely. Manning lost his job ostensibly because of injury, but even if he could play, it looks like Osweiler is simply better.

Chiefs 34, Raiders 20

Line: That’s six in a row for the Chiefs and four of the last five for the Raiders.

What it means: After a terrible start, the Chiefs have won six games in a row. Meanwhile, the Raiders, who had a good first half of the season, have lost four of their last five games. It’s a tricky stat though, because they won the two games before their last five. So… you could equally say that the Raiders have won three of their last seven games. That doesn’t sound nearly as convincing though, so sports blogs (real ones, that is) won’t admit it.

Panthers 41, Saints 38

Line: The Panthers proved they can win even when their defense plays badly. Watch out NFL.

What it means: The Panthers are the last undefeated team in the NFL this season. They’ve done it to a large degree because they have one of the best defenses in the league. That defense played unexpectedly bad today and the Panthers still found a way to win. They’re still not getting as much press as they probably deserve. I think the Panthers have a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl.

Eagles 35, Patriots 28

Line: With all their injuries, the Patriots need to play close to a perfect game in the other two phases to win. They didn’t come close.

What it means: People talk about their being three phases to a football game: offense, defense, and special teams. The Patriots are missing a lot of important players on offense because of injury. They can still score, but perhaps not as prolifically as before. This means that their margin of error on defense and special teams is narrowed. They lost this game largely because of mistakes on special teams and their defense wasn’t good enough to make up for it.

Colts 10, Steelers 45

Line: Uh… I think the Steelers are going to win the Super Bowl.

What it means: They’re not the team with the best record in their division — that’s the Bengals. They’re not even a lock to make the playoffs — although this win makes it much more likely that they will. But the way their offense plays when it’s playing well, it just doesn’t seem possible to beat them.