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2016 NFL Wildcard Preview: Kansas City at Houston

The Houston Texans host the Kansas City Chiefs in the first of the four 2016 National Football League (NFL) Wild Card playoff games. This game is on Saturday, January 9, 2016 at 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN or ABC if you’re in the Houston or Kansas City areas.

What’s the Plot?

The Kansas City Chiefs are an easy team to root for. Full of characters with obvious flaws but even more obvious redeeming characteristics, they came charging back from a bad start to the season, winning their last 10 games of the season to make the playoffs. The Houston Texans are by no means villains, but winning their sorry AFC South division with a 9-7 record doesn’t exactly inspire confidence or a strong desire to see them win in the playoffs. Both teams have close to extraordinary defenses that drag their more pedestrian offenses to success.
“Andy Reid – Head Coach Andy Reid looks like a giant walrus and coaches like one too. What does that mean? Is ‘walrus’ really a meaningful football term? No, it is not. Reid was the long-time coach of the Philadelphia Eagles where he presided over a consistently very good team that came just short of winning a Super Bowl. In Kansas City, he’s had his ups and downs but has mostly been very successful. His specialty is generating offense from teams without any super-stars. His tragic flaw is time management. Late in games, you can almost count on Reid to misuse his team’s timeouts. This is a very visible flaw which sometimes seems to cost his teams victories but realistically, it’s only a small part of coaching.

Who are the main characters on the Kansas City Chiefs?

Alex Smith — Quarterback Alex Smith was drafted number one overall by the San Francisco 49ers in 2005. His story has always been one of moderate success despite two great deficiencies: hand size and arm strength. The importance of arm strength is obvious — if your arm isn’t strong enough to throw the ball far down the field, it’s hard to be successful. When you watch Smith, compare his throws in your mind to others that you’ve seen. You might notice his throws looking not as snappy as other quarterbacks. More likely you can notice what you don’t see — the so-called “”out pattern throws.”” An out is when a wide receiver runs down the field and then perpendicularly to the sideline. The quarterback is expected to throw the ball before the wide receiver turns so it’s there for him to catch. It’s a difficult throw to make because, even more than the longer down-field throws, it has to be made with strength so defenders don’t have time to intercept it. Smith pretty much doesn’t even attempt these throws. What Smith does do, he does extremely well. He’s very athletic, able to avoid defenders trying to sack him and even to make longish dowfield scrambling runs at time. He rarely makes bad decisions that lead to interceptions or fumbles. He’s a solid but unspectacular dude.

Eric Berry — Safety Eric Berry was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma a little over a year ago. He got treatment and was back to playing shape by the time this season started. His play this season has been nothing short of inspiring. He’s back to what he was before the cancer, one of the best safeties in the league. Also, from his Wikipedia page, comes the odd but charming fact: “Berry suffers from equinophobia, a fear of horses, frequently brought on by the Kansas City Chiefs’ mascot, Warpaint. The fear was brought on after a traumatizing childhood event at a petting zoo where a horse bit him while his back was turned.”

Who are the main characters on the Houston Texans?

J.J. Watt — Defensive end J.J. Watt is the best defensive player in the NFL. In his four years in the league before this one, he won the Defensive Player of the Year award twice. His team plays a 3-4 defense, which means that there are three players in the defensive line (at the start of each plays, the defensive line crouches directly opposite the offensive line) and four linebackers upright behind them. Most teams that play this formation expect the three linemen to battle their opposites to a standstill while the real pressure on the quarterback comes from linebackers. Watt is so dominant that he’s able to create pressure as one of the three linemen. Doing this is almost like giving his team an extra player to play with. Off the field, he’s in a trillion commercials, including that one for… a cell phone, I think, where he’s chopping wood in a forest.

Deandre Hopkins — Wide Receiver Deandre Hopkins is one of the best wide receivers in the league. This is an amazing feat because he’s not remarkably tall or unusually fast. He must be extraordinary at the less obvious skills for a wide receiver: running precise and deceptive routes, not foreshadowing the moment when he’s going to reach up and catch the ball, having precise control over his body, timing his jump perfectly so the ball reaches him at the apex of his leaping ability. Hopkins is a joy to watch… as long as you’re not rooting against him. ”

Who is going to win?

The Houston Texans were able to make the playoffs despite being forced to start four different quarterbacks during the season. Overcoming injuries to that many quarterbacks and still succeeding is a rare feat but overcoming an injury to the team’s starting left tackle is even more difficult. That’s what the Texans are facing after starting left tackle Duane Brown tore his quadriceps muscle in last week’s game. If you think it’s strange that an injury to a left tackle should be so much more damaging than one to a quarterback, you should read Michael Lewis’ book, The Blind Side. I’m a believer in the power of the left tackle, so I’ve got to believe that the Kansas City Chiefs will win this game.

What is an audible in football?

Dear Sports Fan,

What is an audible in football?

Thanks,
Ruben

Dear Ruben,

One of the things that separates football from most other sports is the degree to which its coaches control the action. Football stops and starts all the time, and each time it does, coaches on both sides have the opportunity to tell their players what to do. In the NFL, coaches are actually able to talk between plays through a microphone to one offensive player on their team and one defensive player. These players are identified by having a small green dot on their helmets. These messages from the coaches to their players are simple codes that refer to plays which the players have learned in practice. Each one is complex enough to tell each of the eleven players on offense or defense what to do during the upcoming play. All of this happens quickly, in ten to fifteen seconds, and then the two teams run to the line of scrimmage and set up opposite each other. Here’s where things get interesting and where the audibles come into play.

Once the two teams set up to run their plays, as pre-determined by their coaches, a new and vast array of information is available. The offense can see where the defense has lined up. The defense may be able to guess what the offense is going to do. The problem for football coaches is, at this point, they are no longer able to talk to anyone on the field. Some coaches, usually in college football, get around this by having their players set up, pause, and then look to the sidelines where the coach will be signaling a new play to them through some large visual code that is easily understood by them but complex enough to mean nothing to their opponents. Most coaches, especially at the professional level, simply trust a player on the field to decide whether to change the play or go with the original one. If a player on the field (always the quarterback on offense and often a linebacker on defense) decides to go with a new play, that play and the process of deciding to change the original call and communicate that decision is called an audible.

One common example of an audible that television commentators often talk about looks at the number of defensive players “in the box” or set up to defend a run. If there are a lot of defensive players “in the box” and the original play was a run, the quarterback may decide to audible to a pass play. If there are only a few and the original play was a pass, the quarterback may audible to a run. Usually the relevant numbers are five and eight. Five men in the box is an open invitation to run the ball. Eight players guarding the run is a tempting situation to audible to a pass play.

As you may have guessed from the word, audible, which also means something you can hear, the change to the original play call is usually accomplished by SHOUTING! The quarterback on offense or the designated player on defense will scream a new instruction to their teammates. This instruction, like the original play call, will be in code so the other team can’t figure out what it is. Screaming is the easiest way to perform an audible but it’s not always possible. Football crowds are wise to the advantages easy audibling gives an offense, so when the opposing team’s offense is on the field, especially during important third downs or at the end of games, the crowd will scream as loud as they can to make audible audibles impossible. When this happens, a team will revert to hand signals to communicate. Audibles are still possible but the chance of miscommunication is greater.

One amusing element of audibles is that quarterbacks will often scream fake audibles just to make the defense wonder whether the quarterback has seen something nifty and is changing the play to take advantage of it. This adds some of the chatter we often hear from quarterbacks, like Peyton Manning’s famous “OMAHA!” What’s a real audible call one game or series may be a fake one the next. If all this sounds confusing, it is! It’s just one of the small things that makes playing football such an intellectually as well as physically challenging feat. You can understand how football players might want to pause the game and just ask whether an audible is real or not. They don’t do that though, at least… almost never. A microphone at a recent NFL football game caught a Carolina Panther asking quarterback Cam Newton if the audible, “Even Janitor” was a real thing. This is what it sounded like:

Thanks for reading,
Ezra Fischer

One line to fool them all – 1.4.16

Sports talk is frequently used as a common language but it’s far from universal. If you’re someone who doesn’t follow or even understand sports, you can find yourself at a disadvantage in common small-talk situations like in an elevator, waiting for a bus, sitting at a bar, or around the proverbial water cooler at work. Even if you are a sports fan, it’s impossible to watch everything and know everything. To help in these situations, we provide lines to use when engaged in a conversation about all of the high profile sporting events of the day, plus explanations of what they mean.

NFL Football

Jacksonville Jaguars 6, Houston Texans 30

Line: If defense really wins championships, watch out for the Texans. Of course, if it’s actually quarterbacks…

What it means: There are two cliches about winning championships in football that seem to contradict each other. One school of thought suggests that the team with the best defense has the best chance of winning. Another school of thought is that the only thing that really matters is who has the best quarterback. The Texans have a great defense but not a great quarterback, so Texans fans are hoping the first school is correct.

Pittsburgh Steelers 28, Cleveland Browns 12

Line: The Steelers may have backed into the playoffs, but they’re still the scariest team in the AFC.

What it means: The Steelers needed help (in the form of another team losing) in order to even qualify for the playoffs today. They got that help and therefore just snuck into the playoffs as the last team to qualify. Don’t let that fool you though, they are one of the most dangerous teams because of their explosive offense. When their passing game gets going, they have the potential to simply score faster than other teams can keep up with.

New York Jets 17, Buffalo Bills 22

Line: Rex Ryan gets his revenge.

What it means: Buffalo Bills head coach, Rex Ryan, was head coach of the New York Jets for years before being fired last season. The fact that his new team had a chance to knock his old team out of the playoffs with a win today was almost too good to be true, plot-line-wise. This Jets loss seemed inevitable, not just because of the Rex Ryan factor but also because of the Jets long history of losing the most important football games in the most excruciating ways possible.

New England Patriots 10, Miami Dolphins 20

Line: It’s hard to tell whether the Patriots didn’t care about this game or did care but couldn’t get anything going.

What it means: After starting the year 10-0, the Patriots lost four of their final six games. The team looked oddly out of it today but it was hard to tell if they were dispassionate or impotent. If they were dispassionate, it’s because the only thing they had to win today was the first overall seed in the playoffs, which they might not care about. If they were impotent, it’s because they’re still missing two of their top wide receivers and the bulk of their offensive line.

Tennessee Titans 24, Indianapolis Colts 30

Line: Too little, too late for the Colts. And probably their coach and general manager.

What it means: The Colts were supposed to win their division this year and content for the Super Bowl. Instead, their season was an unmitigated disaster, and even the major injury that their star quarterback, Andrew Luck suffered, doesn’t seem like it will help their coaching staff and front office keep their jobs. Expect word of their firings to come out soon.

Baltimore Ravens 16, Cincinnati Bengals 24

Line: Great win, but will Dalton be back for next week?

What it means: The Bengals, once a laughingstock, have turned into a model of consistency. This will be their fifth straight trip to the playoffs. Surprisingly, the biggest concern for Bengals fans is not that they’ve lost their first game in the playoffs in each of the previous four years. Instead, they are worried about the thumb of their starting quarterback Andy Dalton. Dalton fractured that thumb four weeks ago and the team was surely hoping to snag a first round bye to give him another week to heal. That won’t be the case, so he’ll either need to press that thumb into early action or the team will be stuck with their back-up quarterback A.J. McCarron.

Washington Redskins 34, Dallas Cowboys 23

Line: Why not?

What it means: The Redskins didn’t need to win this game — it had no bearing on their playoff positioning at all. If you’re a true Washington player or fan, there’s never a bad time to beat up on your arch-enemies, the Cowboys, especially when they’re down as far as they were this season.

New Orleans Saints 20, Atlanta Falcons 17

Line: These teams are going to look different next year.

What it means: Both of these teams disappointed their fans this year. More importantly, perhaps, they both disappointed their owners. It’s a good bet that at least one and maybe both of their coaches will get fired in the next few days. Lost of players, including long-time and beloved Saints quarterback Drew Brees, could also be on their way out.

Detroit Lions 24, Chicago Bears 20

Line: This game was so meaningless, I heard a rumor that the Red Zone channel didn’t even bother to show its scores.

What it means: The Red Zone channel is an NFL product that’s sole stated purpose is to show every score of every game every Sunday. For them to ignore a game would be a nearly unthinkable statement about how meaningless the game was. I doubt it actually happened, but just that the rumor exists is enough to describe this game.

Philadelphia Eagles 35, New York Giants 30

Line: Bad team that fires its coach beats bad team whose coach is about to resign?

What it means: The Eagles made headlines last week when they fired their coach and general manager, Chip Kelly. Kelly has been one of the most controversial figures in the league over the past three years, coming in as a college offensive savant, and leaving as a bumbling coach and inscrutable general manager. The Giants coach, Tom Coughlin, will go down as one of the franchise’s best ever, having won two Super Bowls during his tenure. Still, it’s possible that tenure is over after a very rough season. He probably won’t get fired but he might retire. He is almost 70.

St. Louis Rams 16, San Francisco 49ers 19

Line: Dysfunctional beats boring, I guess.

What it means: The 49ers have been a dysfunctional organization for the past two years, thanks to power struggles between their old coach, Jim Harbaugh and General Manager Trent Baalke, a bizarre head coaching hire, Jim Tomsula, and a mid-season quarterback change. The Rams haven’t been dysfunctional, but their coach, Jeff Fisher, guarantees that they’ll be boring. They believe in running the ball and playing solid defense and not much else. There’s little to no creativity in the way they play, and the results show that.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10, Carolina Panthers 38

Line: 15-1 and the 1 seed and somehow the Panthers still feel underrated.

What it means: The Carolina Panthers will end the season with the best record in the entire league. Their quarterback, Cam Newton, is the favorite to win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award. Still, somehow, despite all of that success, their name doesn’t come up in discussions of Super Bowl favorites nearly as much as you’d think it would.

Oakland Raiders 17, Kansas City Chiefs 23

Line: It ended up not mattering, but the Chiefs still have to feel good going into the playoffs with 10 straight wins.

What it means: The Chiefs were hoping that this win would let them leapfrog the Denver Broncos into a higher playoff seed. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, the Broncos also won, so that won’t happen. Seeding aside, there’s no team that should feel more confident heading into the playoffs than the Chiefs, who completed a near-miraculous recovery from a poor start and the loss of their best offensive player to win their last 10 games and make the playoffs.

San Diego Chargers 20, Denver Broncos 27

Line: Manning’s back. Which makes me wonder, was this whole thing a ploy to get him rested coming into the playoffs?

What it means: The Denver Broncos clinched the top overall seed in the AFC by winning this game. They also reignited a quarterback controversy by replacing quarterback Brock Osweiler with future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Peyton Manning after halftime. Manning was himself replaced by Osweiler earlier in the season and the Broncos had more or less convinced everyone that they were happy to go with the younger Osweiler for the rest of the season. Now it seems like Manning will start their first playoff game. It’s an odd situation and choice that makes me wonder if the Broncos planned to go back to Manning all along.

Seattle Seahawks 36, Arizona Cardinals 6

Line: The Seahawks should change their name to The Walking Dead. Or Mark Twain.

What it means: We all should have known better than to declare the reign of the Seahawks over after only six games. When they were 2-4, we piled on and said (and wrote) that they were not a great team anymore. That was a mistake! Now they look just as good as ever and I would not be surprised to see them make the Super Bowl again, for the third straight year. Oh, and the references? The Walking Dead is a zombie show, where dead bodies come back to life. Mark Twain is often quoted for his line about how the news of his death was “greatly exaggerated.”

Minnesota Vikings 20, Green Bay Packers 13

Line: Congratulations Vikings, your reward is to play Seattle next week.

What it means: This is sarcastic. By winning this game, the Vikings won their division and secured themselves a higher seed in the playoffs and a home game in the first round. Unfortunately for them, it also means that their first round opponent will be the Seattle Seahawks, who look like one of the best teams in the league. They’re certainly more dangerous than the Washington Redskins, who the Packers now get to play in the first round. Sometimes a win is a loss and a loss is, well, at least a good thing.

One line to fool them all – 12.28.15

NFL Football

Indianapolis Colts 18, Miami Dolphins 12

Line: I hope the Colts don’t make the playoffs, but I feel awfully good for Frank Gore.

What it means: Many years ago, Frank Gore was a star running back for the University of Miami Hurricanes college football team. Today, in what was likely one of his last games in South Florida, he scored two touchdowns and helped push his team to victory. Their win means that they have not been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. I happen to think that the Colts don’t really deserve to make the playoffs this year, but I’m still happy to see Gore play well in such an emotional game.

Chicago Bears 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

Line: Hard to believe that after 15 games, the Bears are still a complete mystery. Are they good? Are they bad? Huh?

What it means: Normally, you can peg how good an NFL team is after about four or five games. This year’s Bears team is as confusing as any team I remember. They’ve won six games and lost nine, but they also seem to have had terrible luck. Are they a talented team that caught some bad breaks? Or are they dysfunctional to the core? We may never know.

Cleveland Browns 13, Kansas City Chiefs 17

Line: The Chiefs have actually clinched a playoff spot while the Broncos haven’t. How weird is that?

What it means: Although the Chiefs are behind the Denver Broncos in the standings for their four team division, thanks to the vagaries of the NFL’s tie-breaking procedures, they are guaranteed a spot in the post season but the Broncos, (who are ahead of them in the standings, for god’s sake,) are not. I guess that’s because, even if the Chiefs lose all their remaining games, the worst they could be is tied for the last wild card spot, and they would then win the tie-breaker against whoever is tied with them while the Broncos, in the same situation, might lose the tie-breaker. It’s a weird situation that will probably resolve itself on Monday night when the Broncos play the Bengals.

New England Patriots 20, New York Jets 26

Line: You think the Patriots threw this game?

What it means: Controversy and conspiracy theories always seem to surround the New England Patriots. The idea that they intentionally lost this game to the Jets is absurd, but the loss may be beneficial. The Jets win, coupled with a loss by the Pittsburgh Steelers, may end up costing the Steelers a playoff spot. The Steelers have been the team in the Patriots’ conference that people believe is the most threatening to the Patriots…

Dallas Cowboys 6, Buffalo Bills 16

Line: Think the Cowboys wish they still had Weeden?

What it means: This is a little foreshadowing. Read on to the Texans vs. Titans game to learn more about Brandon Weeden. For now, it’s enough to know that he’s a quarterback who played well today, which is something the Cowboys didn’t have and desperately needed.

Carolina Panthers 13, Atlanta Falcons 20

Line: The Champagne corks will be popping in Miami.

What it means: The 1972 Miami Dolphins are the only team in history to go throughout an entire NFL season undefeated and win the Super Bowl. So, some obnoxious members of their team ostentatiously drink champagne each year when the last undefeated team in the league, in this case the Carolina Panthers, loses. At least they’re enjoying themselves. Unless the Champagne is only metaphorical. Please tell me it’s physical. Please?

San Francisco 49ers 17, Detroit Lions 32

Line: Maybe Blaine Gabbert is not the answer.

What it means: The San Francisco 49ers entered this season with Colin Kaepernick as their starting quarterback. Although there were some questions swirling around him, Kaepernick was still the young phenom who had led the team to the Super Bowl only a couple years ago. Certainly, he would be their leader for the next decade. Not so fast. By midseason, he was gone, and in his place played Blaine Gabbert, a former first round pick of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Things started out well for him, and some 49ers fans may have hoped their team had stumbled into something good. Now it looks like maybe Gabbert isn’t the answer at quarterback either.

Houston Texans 34, Tennessee Titans 6

Line: Brandon Weeden!!!

What it means: The Texans starting quarterback in this game was Brandon Weeden. Why is that something to holler about? Well, he’s starting for his second team this year after the Dallas Cowboys fired him just a few weeks ago. This is a rarity in the NFL and honestly, as much as people like to make fun of Weeden (mostly because his name is Weeden but also because he failed spectacularly as a young player,) it’s impressive that he could learn another team’s offense and the language they use for their plays in mid-season. He played extremely well in this game and it’s lucky for the Texans that he did, because a loss would have had disastrous consequences for their playoff hopes. As it is, they should win their division and make the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Baltimore Ravens 20

Line: Never turn your back on a rival.

What it means: The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens have had the fiercest rivalry over the past fifteen years. Games between them are always hard-hitting and often close affairs. If any one shouldn’t have been, it was this one. The Steelers came into it as one of the hottest teams in the league, while the Ravens were a mess, starting their third quarterback of the year and without their best running back or wide receiver. As you can tell from the score, things didn’t go as planned for the Steelers. They can still make the playoffs, but they’ll need help. The Ravens, on the other hand, will be laughing all throughout the offseason.

Jacksonville Jaguars 27, New Orleans Saints 38

Line: If Drew Brees is going out, he’s going out with a bang, not a whimper.

What it means: Quarterback Drew Brees has been the most visible player for the New Orleans Saints for the last decade. He led the team to a Super Bowl win and is said to have embraced and been embraced by the city like few other sports figures. There are rumors that this may be his last season with the team. If that’s true, this was his last game in New Orleans. Suffering from a foot injury that would have kept most players out of the game, he played and dominated. My guess is that he was trying to make a statement to management, reminding them what they’d be losing if they get rid of him.

St. Louis Rams 23, Seattle Seahawks 17

Line: The Seahawks too? So much for momentum.

What it means: Like the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Seahawks were one of the hottest teams in the league before this game. After a disappointing loss to a divisional opponent, the Seahawks are also not assured a playoff spot. They’re more likely to make it than the Steelers, but the loss is equally surprising, even if the consequences are less likely to come to fruition.

Green Bay Packers 8, Arizona Cardinals 38

Line: Anyone feel like betting against the Cardinals in the playoffs? As long as Carson Palmer is upright? I didn’t think so.

What it means: The Arizona Cardinals have a rare combination of excellent offense and excellent defense. Most great teams are noticeably better on one side of the ball than the other but the Cardinals are balanced and magnificent. They’ve had the potential to be this good for the last couple years, but each time, quarterback Carson Palmer has gone down with an injury and everything has unraveled. As long as Palmer is healthy, this team will be a force to reckon with, probably deep into the playoffs.

New York Giants 17, Minnesota Vikings 49

Line: This is what happens when a team that cares plays a team that doesn’t.

What it means: The New York Giants knew coming into this game that they had already been eliminated from the playoffs. The Minnesota Vikings knew that they a win would help their playoff positioning. Despite being professionals, motivation matters. As is often the case, the motivated team destroyed the unmotivated one.

Are sports trying to ruin Christmas?

Dear Sports Fan,

What’s up with the NFL football game on Christmas Eve and the five freaking NBA basketball games on Christmas Day? Are sports trying to ruin Christmas?

Thanks,
Bonnie

Dear Bonnie,

Sports leagues aren’t trying to ruin Christmas, but they are trying to profit off of them. At least, the National Basketball Association (NBA) is. There’s a simpler reason for why the National Football League (NFL) has a game on Christmas Eve. Christmas Eve is a Thursday this year, the NFL decided years ago to have games on Thursdays, and they’re not going to change their plans for anything, not even Christmas. The NFL’s general attitude seems to be that they are bigger than any other institution in the world, why would they worry about Christmas? As for the NBA, it’s worth a closer look at why they want to profit off of Christmas, what the model of success is, and how should we feel about it.

One of the biggest questions for most sports leagues is how to create or maintain interest during their long regular seasons. Each NBA team plays 82 games during the season; the National Hockey League (NHL) plays the same number. Major League Baseball (MLB) plays almost twice that number, a whopping 162! Football is too dangerous to play that much or that often. College football teams play from 10 to 12 games during their regular season and the NFL plays only 16. As a result, football doesn’t need to try quite as hard to sustain interest during their season. The other sports are not so lucky. Even the most die-hard fan feels a little lull of interest during the long middle of the regular season. So, leagues are always on the lookout for ways to create intrigue and interest during their season.

Ironically, the league that has been most successful at creating a spike of interest int he middle of their season has been the league that needs it the least, the NFL. As we’ve covered in great length on this site, the NFL owns Thanksgiving. Since the 1950s, when the Detroit Lions became the most common host team for Thanksgiving games, and certainly since 1970 when the Dallas Cowboys joined them and the two teams basically monopolized all of the Thanksgiving hosting, NFL football has become part and parcel of how many Americans celebrate Thanksgiving. In the past seven years, the NHL has been wildly successful in replicating the NFL’s approach on New Year’s Day with its visually breathtaking outdoor Winter Classic Games. Hockey is a less popular sport, but “owning a holiday” has still proven to be a strong tactic. The Winter Classic games are watched by between three and five million people each year — around ten times more than other regular season hockey games, even the nationally televised ones.

Interest in unique sporting events can, at times, approach levels of interest that make them seem like holidays. The first two days of the men’s college basketball tournament, called March Madness, feel like a holiday, observed by office workers everywhere who develop fake colds or schedule elective surgery so they can watch, or just stream the games onto their work computers, slowing down the network for everyone. The NBA has already had some success with this, their All-Star Weekend is only half-jokingly called “Black Thanksgiving.” Still greater success, they hope, will be found by owning a real holiday rather than creating one of their own. That’s why, each Christmas, the NBA stacks as many games between their best and biggest teams as possible. This year, it’s five games in a row and the highlight is the first game between the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers since they played in the finals last spring.

Now we get to the heart of your question — is the NBA right to do this? Does having so many (and so high-profile) basketball games televised on Christmas ruin the holiday? It doesn’t. Sure, it may ruin the holiday for players, coaches, and their families, but that’s a small segment of the population and one (since they are mostly very well compensated,) that most people don’t feel a ton of sympathy for. Aside from doctors, nurses, midwives, police, EMTs, fire fighters, and other essential workers, most of us have off on Christmas and if we don’t want our family celebrations sullied by sports on TV, we can either keep the TV off or change the channel.

Another segment of people who work on Christmas are people who work at Chinese restaurants and movie theaters too. Those are both traditional Christmas activities for people (stereotypically Jews.) That brings us to one point in favor of the NBA having games on Christmas: not everyone celebrates Christmas, and the NBA has a long history of inclusion. Back in the 1930s and 40s, professional basketball was mostly a Jewish endeavor. Even in the modern era of the NBA, three of the top ten scorers (Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O’Neill, and the #1 scorer of all time, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) of all time have been Muslim. Of all the big American sports leagues, the NBA has the most international fan base. This includes a big contingent in China, a country with around a billion non-Christians.

For people who don’t celebrate Christmas and live in a predominantly celebrating country, like the United States, the holiday can be alienating. Having a football game to watch on Christmas Eve and more than 12 hours of basketball to watch on Christmas Day is a comforting thought. If you celebrate and the games get in your way, just remember — these teams will play roughly fifty times again this season before the playoffs start. There’s really no need to give too much attention to any one game in December, no matter what the NBA wants us to do.

Thanks for reading and Happy Holidays, however you celebrate,
Ezra Fischer

One line to fool them all – 12.21.15

NFL Football

Kansas City Chiefs 34, Baltimore Ravens 14

Line: I guess everyone likes Jamaal Charles too much to say it, but this team is experiencing a classic Ewing Theory season.

What it means: The Ewing Theory is a creation of sports columnist Bill Simmons. His idea is that when a team loses its best player, they sometimes counter-intuitively play better than when they had him or her. In the case of the Chiefs, they had won only one game and lost four when their star running back, Jamaal Charles, was lost for the season to an injury. Since then, they’ve only lost one game and won seven!

Houston Texans 16, Indianapolis Colts 10

Line: What a year for Brandon Weeden!

What it means: Brandon Weeden was once a high draft pick of the Cleveland Browns. He was a disaster there and slunk away to fulfill his destiny as a player obviously not good enough to be a starter — being a backup quarterback. He started this year on the Dallas Cowboys and took over for them when their starting quarterback, Tony Romo, broke his collarbone. After a few games of seeing Weeden as a starter, the Cowboys realized what the Browns had and cut him. Just a few weeks later, when the Houston Texans needed a backup quarterback, they signed Weeden (maybe just because he was in the neighborhood?) When their starting quarterback in this game, T.J. Yates, injured his knee, in came Brandon Weeden to lead the Texans to a major victory. With only two games to go, Weeden and his new team are a game ahead of the other teams for the lead in their division. He could get to the playoffs… if he doesn’t get cut first.

Tennessee Titans 16, New England Patriots 33

Line: Looks like the Patriots won their scrimmage pretty easily.

What it means: This wasn’t a very competitive game. The Patriots are one of the NFL’s top five teams and the Titans are easily one of the league’s worst.

Buffalo Bills 25, Washington Redskins 35

Line: This game wasn’t as close as the score would suggest.

What it means: How can the score of a game, which is measured primarily by score, be deceptive? Well, in this case, Washington was up 28-3, a near unassailable lead, before they let their opponent score their first touchdown of the game. The Bills got a few more scores late in the game, but only after the result was basically a fait accompli.

Chicago Bears 17, Minnesota Vikings 38

Line: Uh… According to one way of looking at things,Teddy Bridgewater had the best game a quarterback has had since 1964.

What it means: An NFL employee named Randall Liu noted today that the quarterback of the Vikings, Teddy Bridgewater was the first quarterback since 1964 to complete 85% of his passes, pass for four touchdowns, run for one, and avoid throwing any interceptions. Realistically, it’s the running for one that makes this such a rare feat — quarterbacks don’t usually run for touchdowns — but that doesn’t lessen the impact. Bridgewater had a hell of a day!

Carolina Panthers 38, New York Giants 35

Line: What is it with the Giants and undefeated teams?? I guess they’ll win the Super Bowl now.

What it means: In 2007, the New England Patriots were 15-0 going into their last regular season game, which happened to be against the New York Giants. Although the Patriots won, 38-35, the Giants gave them a much tougher game than expected. Both teams made the playoffs and eventually met in the Super Bowl, where the Giants upset the Patriots. The Panthers were undefeated coming into this game, and remain undefeated after winning it. Still, there’s something eerily similar about the scenario, right down to the score…

Atlanta Falcons 23, Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Line: Somehow this one loss for the Jaguars sucks as much for them as the previous six did for the Falcons.

What it means: The NFL gives an automatic playoff spot to the team in each four-team division that ends the year with the best record. The Falcons are in the same division as the undefeated Carolina Panthers, so you felt they were fated not to win the division even before they lost six games in a row. The Jaguars, even though they have a worse record overall than the Falcons, were still in contention for winning their division before this game. That’s why losing this game hurt Jaguars fans so badly.

Green Bay Packers 30, Oakland Raiders 20

Line: Not a bad football game, for one played in the shower.

What it means: Rain doesn’t normally effect the play of professional football players. Usually, only a few inches of snow on the field or high winds have a noticeable effect. This was an exception. Judging only from what I could see on television, there seemed to be a perpetual fine drizzle that soaked the field and the football, and made it very difficult for anyone on either team to do what they were trying to do. In the end, the more experienced team won.

Cleveland Browns 13, Seattle Seahawks 30

Line: Who let the Seahawks find a way to claim that they’re under-appreciated again this year?

What it means: One of the favorite motivating tactics for sports team is to claim that “nobody believes in us.” For some reason, this seems to be an extremely effective message to rally around. It also helps that virtually every team can claim it’s true — all they have to do is find a few newspaper columnists or bloggers to latch onto. The Seahawks ought to have been the exception to this rule, having been to two straight Super Bowls and won one of them. Who would be crazy enough not to believe that they can do it again? Thanks to a very slow start, they suckered a few critics in (myself included) and now they have the high ground of external disbelief.

Cincinnati Bengals 24, San Francisco 49ers 14

Line: No Dalton, no Eifert, no problem.

What it means: The Cincinnati Bengals were having a dream season, winning most of their games and seeming like a shoe-in for the playoffs, before last week. Then, in the span of a few minutes, they lost their starting quarterback, Andy Dalton, to a fractured thumb, and one of their best pass catchers, Tyler Eifert, to a concussion. It may catch up to them, but it didn’t in this game against the 49ers. The Bengals won easily and clinched a spot in the playoffs.

Denver Broncos 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 34

Line: Can we see this game again in three weeks?

What it means: This was one of the best games of the year — a back and forth game played with skill and nerve by both team’s offensive and defensive units. There is a chance that these two teams could meet in the first round of the playoffs, three weeks from now. If they do, it would be a wonderful encore to a wonderful game.

Miami Dolphins 14, San Diego Chargers 30

Line: Good to see Rivers and the Chargers go out with a win, if this really is the end.

What it means: The San Diego Chargers are one of three teams rumored to be moving to Los Angeles next year. If they do move, this game will be their last in San Diego. Things haven’t been good or fun for the Chargers and their fans this year, but they’ve had a good run with quarterback Phillip Rivers over the past eleven seasons. Although he’s never been able to lead the team to a Super Bowl, it certainly hasn’t been from a lack of effort or skill. I’m glad Rivers and company were able to give the home fans one last thing to cheer about while they were busy protesting the team’s impending move.

Arizona Cardinals 40, Philadelphia Eagles 17

Line: Hope you had David Johnson on your fantasy team… or at least weren’t going against him.

What it means: Week 15, the current week of the NFL season, is also usually the finals or semifinals of most fantasy football leagues. Why do the fantasy football playoffs fall before the NFL playoffs? Read this. Cardinals rookie running back, David Johnson, swung a lot of important fantasy matches with his outsized real life contribution to the Cardinals win: 187 yards rushing, 42 yards receiving, and three touchdowns. In most scoring systems, that’s close to 40 points — four times an acceptable day for a running back and twice a very good day. That’s enough to swing most fantasy playoff games he was involved in.

One line to fool them all – 12.14.15

NFL Football

Detroit Lions 14, St. Louis Rams 21

Line: We’ve gotten to the point in the NFL season when there are games no one cares about, not even fans of the teams involved. This was one of them.

What it means: Okay, sure, maybe some of the fans of these teams cared about this game. Surely, the players and their families at least cared about getting through the game without injury. But with both teams either mathematically eliminated from playoff contention or all but, this was at its heart, an uninteresting affair.

Atlanta Falcons 0, Carolina Panthers 38

Line: Soul searching time for the Falcons.

What it means: The year started out so well for both of these teams, who play in the same division. After five weeks, both teams were undefeated. Heading into this game, the Panthers were still undefeated but the Falcons had lost all but one of the intervening games. That’s a bewildering fall from grace and being shut out by a division rival won’t help anything. It’s hard to think of anyone on the coaching or managerial staff whose job is or should be safe.

Washington Redskins 24, Chicago Bears 21

Line: And that’s why we still call it football. Two games in a row for the Bears.

What it means: The Chicago Bears have now lost two games in a row thanks in large part to their field goal kicker, Robbie Gould, missing two late-game field goals last week and this week. In this game, the Bears had a chance to tie the game in the last minute but couldn’t get it closer than the 32 yard line before turning to Gould to make a 50 yard field goal. That should be within his range, but he kicked it wide. This leaves Washington still in first place of their division and Chicago eliminated.

Buffalo Bills 20, Philadelphia Eagles 23

Line: Doesn’t it seem like Rex Ryan’s teams always kill themselves with penalties in big games?

What it means: This was a big game for both teams in terms of playoff positioning, but it was also an emotional game thanks to a blockbuster trade between the two teams during the offseason which left hard feelings on both sides. The Buffalo Bills coach, Rex Ryan, is said to believe in encouraging his players’ emotions. Sometimes this works well — it may give them confidence they wouldn’t otherwise have — but it can also backfire if the players get too emotional to play well. One sign of that is the total number of penalties the team takes. The Bills took 15 penalties, which is an enormous and damaging number, in this game.

San Francisco 49ers 10, Cleveland Browns 24

Line: Johnny Manziel, blah blah blah.

What it means: Television networks and other sports media outlets love to make a big deal about Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel, who has been in and out of the starting lineup as many times as he’s been in and out of trouble with his team and in and out of rehab. Alcoholism is no joke, but it’s also not a particularly compelling story, especially when tied to a team as bad as the Browns. Boring!

New Orleans Saints 24, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Line: Brees and Peyton playing out the string may still be better than the Buccaneers trying to make the playoffs.

What it means: This season will probably be the end of an era for the most successful coach/quarterback combination in New Orleans Saints history. Coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees have been together for a decade and were able to win a Super Bowl in their time in New Orleans. Now Brees is getting old and Peyton seems to have lost his edge. Most people expect Peyton to be fired or to leave voluntarily during the offseason. Brees may stay, but his time is certainly limited at this point. Still, for one day at least, the old guys had enough in their box of tricks to beat the up and coming Buccaneers. Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes were severely reduced by losing this game.

Seattle Seahawks 35, Baltimore Ravens 6

Line: It’s old hat by now, but the Seahawks are in the playoffs and you don’t want to see your team playing them.

What it means: After a 2-4 early season start, the Seahawks have only lost a single game. Thanks to this convincing win, they’ve clinched a spot in the playoffs. They’ll try to make the Super Bowl for the third straight year, something they’re giving every signal currently of being good enough to do. If you’re a fan of another team, the last thing you want to see is the Seahawks as your team’s opponent in the playoffs.

San Diego Chargers 3, Kansas City Chiefs 10

Line: The first chink in the Chiefs armor in many weeks. They almost let the Chargers tie this game in the last minute.

What it means: Like the Seahawks, the Chiefs have looked to be a team that started out slow but has been rounding into shape as one of the best teams in the league. There’s a cliche that suggests that it’s a good sign when a team wins despite not playing their best, but Chiefs fans would still like to have seen their team look more convincing. The Chargers are one of the most injured, and therefore worst teams in the league.

Indianapolis Colts 16, Jacksonville Jaguars 51

Line: It’s hard to say which division is worse, the AFC South or the NFC East. At 5-8, the Jags may still have a shot at the playoffs.

What it means: The best team in a division in each of the NFL’s eight divisions gets an automatic place in the playoffs. That makes it really noticeable when a division has four sub-par teams. That’s true for two divisions this year, the high-profile NFC East, and the division both these teams are in, the AFC South. If the Texans lose against the Patriots tonight, no team in the AFC South will have a winning record, and the 5-8 Jaguars will only be one game out of first place.

Tennessee Titans 8, New York Jets 30

Line: A win the Jets had to have, and had to have comfortably to feel good about.

What it means: The Jets are currently in the playoffs. They are one of three teams, along with the Steelers and Chiefs, to have an 8-5 record. Given how the Chiefs and Steelers are playing, the Jets may need to win all their remaining games to make the playoffs. That’s a big task, given their upcoming opponents, but their fans were given confidence by how easily the team beat the Titans today. A close win, while just as good for the quantifiable standings, would have felt qualitatively way, way worse.

Pittsburgh Steelers 33, Cincinnati Bengals 20

Line: The Bengals lost a whole lot more than just the game today.

What it means: In the first ten minutes of this game, the Cincinnati Bengals lost their starting tight end for the game with a concussion and their starting quarterback with a fractured thumb on his throwing hand. Losing to the Steelers is never fun, but the real panic among Bengals fans surrounds the loss of these two key players to injury.

Oakland Raiders 15, Denver Broncos 12

Line: Now the Broncos will really have a controversy on their hands.

What it means: As long as legendary quarterback Peyton Manning was injured OR the Broncos kept winning without him, the team was insulated from having a difficult and controversial decision to make. With this loss, the controversy will begin. Although privately, the Broncos probably still think that Brock Osweiler is a better fit (i.e. he takes orders from the coaches and doesn’t make as many brutal mistakes) for the team than Manning, it will be interesting to see how firmly they hold to that conviction.

Dallas Cowboys 7, Green Bay Packers 28

Line: I know I’ve said this about a dozen times before, but this time, I think the Cowboys season is really over.

What it means: The Cowboys inability to win football games this year has almost been matched by the inability of any of the other teams in their division to win. So much so, that each time we were ready to write the Cowboys off, they’d get some help in the standings from all the other teams losing as well. Now, finally, with the Cowboys two games back of the division lead with only two games to go, we can truly say that they’re done.

New England Patriots 27, Houston Texans 6

Line: It’s hard to believe that the NFL is improving on concussions when one of the quarterbacks in a nationally televised game gets obviously concussed, goes back in the game for two more possessions, fumbles twice, and only then is taken out of the game.

What it means: The NFL is supposed to have improved their ability to identify concussions and respond appropriately to them by getting the injured player out of the game and keeping him out. In this game, it was pretty obvious to television viewers that Texans quarterback Brian Hoyer was stunned after a hit. He went back into the game but kept messing things up (no surprise if he had actually injured his brain.)

One line to fool them all – 12.7.15

NFL Football

Texans 21, Bills 30

Line: Neither team is all that good, but the Bills needed this one more.

What it means: After this game, both teams have won six games and lost six. The difference is that the Bills are in the same division as the 10-2 New England Patriots, and therefore will need to get a wildcard spot to make the playoffs. The Texans are tied for the best record in their division with the Indianapolis Colts and are therefore still very much in a good position to claim a playoff spot by winning their division title.

Ravens 13, Dolphins 15

Line: It’s hard to admit for Ravens fans, but they’re probably better off having lost this game.

What it means: The Ravens have been a consistently good team over the past decade. This year, they couldn’t get things together and then, while they were falling apart, they broke. What does that mean? Well, they weren’t winning many games and then all their good players got injured. Now, it’s probably best for them to lose their remaining games and get the best draft pick in this year’s draft as possible.

Bengals 37, Browns 3

Line: I guess the common/uncommon opponents theory of the Bengals doesn’t hold for the Browns.

What it means: The Bengals have been an excellent team for most of this season. Some smart football analyst out there noticed though, that when they struggle, it’s often in games against teams that are used to playing them, especially if they have played them recently. The Browns, who are in the same division as the Bengals, and who have already played them this year, are a perfect example of a common opponent, who the Bengals might struggle against. The only problem? The Browns aren’t very good. Sometimes the even simpler answer is the correct one.

49ers 26, Bears 20

Line: Oh 49ers fans, Blaine Gabbert is doing just enough to reel them in.

What it means: The 49ers have had an incredibly bad season. They lost their coach and several important defensive players before the season. They benched their starting quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, part of the way through the season, and will probably let him leave as a free agent this summer. You’d think they would be looking for a new young quarterback in the draft but the backup quarterback, a guy named Blaine Gabbert who failed spectacularly with his previous team, has done just enough that the 49ers might be able to convince themselves to trust him with their future. It probably won’t end well.

Jaguars 39, Titans 42

Line: Whoa! Dear Sports Fan’s NFL Forecast was right!

What it means: When the formulas that run my NFL Forecast told me that this game was going to be one of the top games of the week, I thought seriously about arguing with it. “No way,” I thought. These teams suck! Suck they may, but apparently they are bad in ways that match up perfectly to create an entertaining football game. These teams play in the same division, so with luck, we’ll see lots of similarly exciting games in the future from them.

Seahawks 38, Vikings 7

Line: Uh oh, the Seahawks appear to have returned.

What it means: The Seahawks have made the Super Bowl in the past two seasons, winning two years ago and losing last year on a fluky play right at the end of the game. From their poor play at the start of this season, it seemed like they were not going to be returning for a third year. Now, after a dominant win against a very good team, the Seahawks have

Jets 23, Giants 20

Line: This one was way more than the battle of New York.

What it means: The easy narrative about this game is that it was a rare (once every four years) game between the two teams who claim to be from New York and play in New Jersey. Neither of these teams cared about that narrative. The game was too important to both teams in terms of their chance to win their division (Giants) or make the playoffs as a wildcard (Jets.) The Jets win gives a significant boost to their playoff chances.

Cardinals 27, Rams 3

Line: Ho, hum.

What it means: Nothing to see here, really. A dominant team beat a team they were expected to beat. The world continues to turn.

Falcons 19, Buccaneers 23

Line: Ugh. I guess it’s time to admit that Jameis Winston is good at football.

What it means: The number one overall pick from this year’s draft, Jameis Winston, the quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, is an impossible player to root for. Alas, that doesn’t mean he’s bad at football. Apparently, he’s actually pretty good at it. Damn.

Broncos 17, Chargers 3

Line: Doesn’t look like Peyton Manning’s getting his job back.

What it means: With every Broncos win under understudy quarterback Brock Osweiler’s leadership, the odds of once-legendary quarterback Peyton Manning getting his job back get longer and longer. Longer odds mean something is less likely. Manning lost his job ostensibly because of injury, but even if he could play, it looks like Osweiler is simply better.

Chiefs 34, Raiders 20

Line: That’s six in a row for the Chiefs and four of the last five for the Raiders.

What it means: After a terrible start, the Chiefs have won six games in a row. Meanwhile, the Raiders, who had a good first half of the season, have lost four of their last five games. It’s a tricky stat though, because they won the two games before their last five. So… you could equally say that the Raiders have won three of their last seven games. That doesn’t sound nearly as convincing though, so sports blogs (real ones, that is) won’t admit it.

Panthers 41, Saints 38

Line: The Panthers proved they can win even when their defense plays badly. Watch out NFL.

What it means: The Panthers are the last undefeated team in the NFL this season. They’ve done it to a large degree because they have one of the best defenses in the league. That defense played unexpectedly bad today and the Panthers still found a way to win. They’re still not getting as much press as they probably deserve. I think the Panthers have a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl.

Eagles 35, Patriots 28

Line: With all their injuries, the Patriots need to play close to a perfect game in the other two phases to win. They didn’t come close.

What it means: People talk about their being three phases to a football game: offense, defense, and special teams. The Patriots are missing a lot of important players on offense because of injury. They can still score, but perhaps not as prolifically as before. This means that their margin of error on defense and special teams is narrowed. They lost this game largely because of mistakes on special teams and their defense wasn’t good enough to make up for it.

Colts 10, Steelers 45

Line: Uh… I think the Steelers are going to win the Super Bowl.

What it means: They’re not the team with the best record in their division — that’s the Bengals. They’re not even a lock to make the playoffs — although this win makes it much more likely that they will. But the way their offense plays when it’s playing well, it just doesn’t seem possible to beat them.

Why does an NFL ref throw his hat on the field?

Dear Sports Fan,

I was watching the football game between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers last night and noticed that a ref had thrown his hat on the field. I know what i means when refs throw yellow flags, but why does an NFL ref throw his hat on the field?

Thanks,
Ana

Dear Ana,

Being an NFL ref is not a full-time job but it can be fun — for one thing, they do get to throw a bunch of different objects! As you mentioned, the most common thing for a ref to throw is a yellow flag. This symbolizes a foul that he has seen and intends to call. At times, you may also see refs throw a small, blue bean bag onto the field. No, it’s not the 1990s again, the ref isn’t about to sit down on the bean bag! The bean bag is thrown to the spot where a change of possession happened, because a penalty called after that time will often refer to that spot – i.e. five yards from the spot of the interception, fumble recovery, or kick return. Throwing things is fun, as is explaining why NFL refs throw things, but you didn’t ask about flags or bean bags, you asked about hats. Let’s get down to the hat.

The simplest reason for a ref to throw her hat is because she’s already thrown her flag! That’s right. Instead of carrying a backup flag, if a ref sees a second penalty to call after throwing his flag for the first one, his only recourse is to throw his hat. This is simply a brilliant move. Not only is throwing a hat a fun thing to do, but it’s also what cartoonishly angry people do in old comedies or cartoons to show their anger. I love thinking about the original ref who believed so firmly in law and order that he got super angry at seeing a second (a second!!) foul on the same play that he threw his hat in anger… and it became the standard for dealing with that situation. You might ask what happens if a ref sees a third foul. I don’t know, but Jerry Markbreit and Alan Steinberg’s book Last Call: Memoirs of an NFL Referee suggests an amusingly scatalogical solution.

Seeing two fouls on one play does happen, but more frequently the cause for an NFL’s hat throwing is something different. Football players are expected to stay on the football field while play is going on. This is not normally a problem, except perhaps with very young children who are prone to wandering. Sometimes though, a player running down the sideline, especially someone on the offense who is trying to get in position to catch a pass, will step out-of-bounds inadvertently or in an attempt to get around a defender. When this happens, that player becomes ineligible to catch the ball. Just stepping out-of-bounds is not against the rules, so no flag should be thrown, but if the player who goes out-of-bounds catches the ball, then there’s a penalty. So, in order to help remember that the player has gone out-of-bounds, the ref watching him throws his hat to the ground and later, if the catch is made, throws his flag. The one exception to this rule is if the offensive player has been pushed out-of-bounds by a defender. In this case, he is allowed to catch the ball as soon as he re-establishes himself in bounds by touching the field with both feet or some part of his body other than his hands. No hat need be thrown in this situation.

What other sport requires their officials to throw so many things! Ah, football.

Thanks for reading,
Ezra Fischer

A Thanksgiving 2015 NFL football preview

For many people, football is a part of Thanksgiving as much as the turkey, the stuffing, or the pie. For others, it’s a foreign addition to the meal, like corned beef and cabbage or Chinese food (both of which my family has cooked for past Thanksgivings, but that’s another story…) Sometimes, those people sit down at the same table. When that happens, it’s important for the football fans to realize that not everyone shares their passion. Sports fans need to make an effort to talk about other things sometimes. Then again, if those other things are going to be politics, religion, or money… maybe it’s a good idea for the non-sports fans to brush up on their football. For the sake of peace and good will at the Thanksgiving table, here’s what you need to know about the three NFL football games on Thanksgiving Day, 2015.

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions, 12:30 p.m. ET on Fox

The Lions are one of two teams that traditionally host Thanksgiving games. Most years, their fans have very little to be thankful for. This year was shaping up to be much the same after the team lost seven of its first eight games. Then the Lions went on the road to Green Bay, where they had not won since 1991. They won! Riding that wave of generational positivity, (yes, even for a 2-7 team,) the Lions won their next game against the Oakland Raiders. That was just last weekend. With the playoffs only the most pipey of pipe dreams, this Thanksgiving game will be the biggest game for the Lions for the rest of the year, simply because of the national spotlight playing on Thanksgiving gives the franchise. Their opponents in this game, the Philadelphia Eagles, are in even greater disarray. Unlike the Lions, the Eagles were supposed to be good this year and to challenge seriously for their division title. They’ve only won four games of their first ten and are hanging on to playoff hopes solely because their division is so bad. The best record in the division is only 5-5. The Eagles have lost three of their last four games and they and their egomaniacal, unorthodox, coach and general manager, Chip Kelly seem to be headed toward a sloppy divorce.

So, yes, these teams are not very good. On the other hand, because of that, the game could go in almost any direction. If you care about either of these two teams — for rooting, gambling, or fantasy reasons — then there’s a lot of suspense to be found here. The Lions could win by twenty. The Eagles could win by twenty. The game could be high scoring or low scoring. It could go into overtime or be over by the time your doorbell rings announcing your first guest. No one really knows. And that makes it kind of fun to watch.

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS

Alas, the most intriguing game of the day happens in the time least likely to be convenient for watching. 4:30 is pretty much dinner time on Thanksgiving, at least on the East Coast. Both teams, the visiting Carolina Panthers and the host Dallas Cowboys will be trying to do something for the first time ever. The Carolina Panthers have already set a record for the best start to a season their franchise has ever had. At 10-0, they are one of only two remaining undefeated teams in the league. Only 11 teams have ever started a season with 11 straight wins, and the Panthers will be trying to join that group on Thanksgiving. The team is led by three incredible players. Cam Newton is their leader on offense. A 6’5″ 250 lb behemoth, he’s the rare NFL quarterback who has the ability to run the ball almost as well as he can throw it and the build to hold up to the hits he takes when running. On defense, the Panthers are led by two players who are both near the top of their positions: Luke Keuchly at middle linebacker and Josh Norman at corner back. As for the Cowboys, they’re trying to do something which no NFL team has ever done before — make the playoffs after a 2-7 start. There are two things that give them hope in this audacious goal. The first is that all of their losses this season came while quarterback Tony Romo was injured and most while their best wide receiver, Dez Bryant, was injured as well. The second hopeful factor is that they are in the same division as the Eagles — the NFC East — and at 3-7, they are only two wins behind the division leading New York Giants.

One curious feature of this game is that the Cowboys are favored by a point. This means that people betting on the Cowboys need them to win by more than one point in order to make money while people betting on the Carolina Panthers would win even if the teams tied. It’s fairly extraordinary for a 10-0 team to be an underdog against a 3-7 team. This is partially because home teams tend to do a little better than visiting teams and because the Cowboys are notoriously a public team. Whatever the reason for it, you can be sure that the Panthers will use being an underdog as motivation, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they beat the Cowboys soundly.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers, 8:30 p.m. ET on NBC

The nightcap of the football schedule is a perfect game for sitting on the couch, enjoying a nightcap of your own or even some leftover pie or turkey sandwiches. The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers have played against each other more times than any two teams in NFL history. They are two classic franchises, and watching them play, especially late in the season, is like taking a trip back in time. By the time the game starts in Green Bay, the wind will be blowing around 15 mph, it will be right around freezing, and there’s a 90% chance of precipitation. There’s nothing better than watching football in bad weather… from the comfort of your couch.

As for the football game, the jury is out on whether Green Bay is an elite, championship contender this year. In Aaron Rodgers, they have the world’s best quarterback (with the possible exception of Tom Brady) but the question is how much quality he can wring out of the team’s group of less talented wide receivers. At times this season, the Packers offense has looked as good as ever, but in other games it has had periods of profound helplessness. Profound helplessness is pretty much the norm for Chicago Bears fans. Their team seems locked in an endless cycle of almost getting good and then falling apart again. This season has been a microcosm of that experience. The Bears started the season with three wins. Then they clawed their way back to reasonableness with two wins. Then they lost two more games to place them firmly in a bad place. Then, after their fans had given up a second time, they won two more games to go to 4-5 on the year, one game away from .500. A close loss last week to the Denver Broncos makes this game close to a must-win if the Bears have any hope of reaching the playoffs this year.

I fear that this game may get out of hand early if Green Bay gets out to an early lead. That would really be a shame, because this has the potential to be the coziest, most enjoyable football game of the day.